Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021
Winter Weather Advisory 24, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Nov 27, 2021, 2:26 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Nov 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 27, 2021, 2:26 PM EST (19:26 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Nov 28, 2021, 9:31 PM EST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 584 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
019 WWUS41 KBUF 271926 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 NYZ019-280330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 226 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. If bands of snow are more persistent, total amounts could be locally higher. * WHERE...Chautauqua county. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ020-085-280330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 226 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JLA
7 follow-up statements
244 WWUS41 KBUF 280210 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 910 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 NYZ019-281100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 910 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua county. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ020-085-281100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 910 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Apffel
481 WWUS41 KBUF 280901 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 401 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 NYZ019-281715- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 401 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua county. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions this afternoon and tonight, however difficult driving conditions could be found across the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ020-085-281715- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/ Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 401 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions this afternoon and tonight, however difficult driving conditions could be found across the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
726
WWUS41 KBUF 281513
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1013 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
NYZ019-290000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
1013 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Additional snow
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake
snows. The heaviest snow will occur late this afternoon through
this evening on the Chautauqua Ridge. Patchy blowing snow is
possible in open areas.
* WHERE...Chautauqua county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, including along the
I-90 corridor. The hazardous conditions could also impact the
morning commute on Monday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4239 7908 4247 7919 4241 7934 4225 7976
4199 7977 4201 7947 4199 7929 4207 7919 4214 7918
4215 7912
TIME Y21M11D26T1500Z-Y21M11D27T0000Z
COORD...4242 7914 4242 7941 4234 7954 4230 7954
4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7947 4200 7931 4204 7931
4213 7912
TIME Y21M11D27T0000Z-Y21M11D27T1200Z
$$
NYZ020-085-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.211128T1800Z-211129T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1013 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Additional snow accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most
snow will occur late this afternoon into this evening from the
Boston Hills to the higher terrain across Cattaraugus county.
* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions this afternoon and
tonight, however difficult driving conditions could be found
across the higher terrain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions
and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
JLA396
WWUS41 KBUF 282031
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
NYZ020-290500-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
331 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Cattaraugus county, mainly northern and western portions
of the county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday. The heaviest snow will occur late
this afternoon and early this evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, including along the
I-90 corridor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ019-290500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
331 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday. The heaviest snow will occur late
this afternoon and early this evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ085-290500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
331 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to
5 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Southern Erie county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel474
WWUS41 KBUF 282205
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
505 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
NYZ019-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
505 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 5
to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday. The heaviest snow will occur
through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, including along the I-
90 corridor and the Southern Tier Expressway.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ020-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
505 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 5
to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Cattaraugus county, mainly in northern and western
portions of the county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday. The heaviest snow will occur
through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult tonight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ021-290700-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
505 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Allegany county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ085-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
505 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Southern Erie county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel046
WWUS41 KBUF 290044
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
744 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
NYZ085-290145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
744 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
An additional inch of snow is possible overnight, with some slick
spots possible on roadways.
$$
NYZ019-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
744 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ020-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
744 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ021-290900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
744 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to
3 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Allegany county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel478
WWUS41 KBUF 290231
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
NYZ021-290345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
931 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
Roads still may be slick in spots overnight.
$$
NYZ019-291200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
931 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
NYZ020-291200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-211129T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
931 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4244 7869 4244 7908 4251 7918 4239 7956
4230 7975 4199 7977 4205 7923 4210 7922 4221 7898
4225 7869
TIME Y21M11D28T1800Z-Y21M11D29T0000Z
COORD...4229 7863 4240 7893 4242 7938 4235 7959
4221 7976 4199 7977 4201 7950 4209 7913 4206 7884
4216 7865
TIME Y21M11D29T0000Z-Y21M11D29T1200Z
$$
ApffelWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Nov 27, 12:33 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 27, 12:33 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold wintry pattern will remain in place through the middle of
next week...as a parade of clipper type systems will support
frequent snows while holding temperatures at mid December levels.
Our next real snowfall will come tonight and Sunday when a passing
system will generate a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation over the
western counties. This will be followed by lake snows Sunday
night that will likely warrant fresh winter weather advisories.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today will be somewhat of a transition day between the lake snows
that blanketed parts of the region on Friday...and the next system
that will impact us tonight through the second half of the weekend.
NW flow and cold air aloft (H85 temp of -12c this morning)
between weak ridge and strong low over eastern Quebec continues
to support light snow and flurries over much of western NY and
southeast of Lake Ontario. Loss of DGZ with warm air advection
ahead of system over western Great Lakes will end this snow this
afternoon. Otherwise...today will feature a wealth of lake
induced strato- cu that will grudgingly give way to some sun
later today. It will remain cold with afternoon temps largely in
the low to mid 30s...with 20s more common inland across the
North Country.
A broad and somewhat nebulous area of low pressure over the western
Great Lakes and Upper Mid West will settle across Lake Erie tonight.
Weak isentropic lift in advance of this feature will encourage a
large area of light snow to blossom over the western counties where
snow accums overnight will range from a half inch near the south
shore of Lake Ontario to 2 inches near the Pennsylvania border. Have
raised pops and QPF from continuity to include categorical pops
across the Srn Tier.
A strong shortwave digging southeast from the Upper Great Lakes
later tonight will reinforce the aforementioned sfc low over our
forecast area on Sunday. Significant hgt falls will help to keep
fairly widespread snowfall in place across the western counties with
the snow eventually working east of Lake Ontario by the end of the
day. This event may require a winter weather advisory...particularly
over the far western counties near Lake Erie where lake enhancement
is all but guaranteed Sunday afternoon and evening. While just about
all of the western counties will pick up an inch or so of snow on
Sunday...several inches of new snow is expected from Chautauqua
county northward into the Buffalo metro area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Center of Clipper low will be located in central NY somewhere near
the I-90 corridor Sunday evening. In terms of additional synoptic
snowfall, possibly an additional inch or so from the Thruway north,
with lesser amounts to the south as the low starts to accelerate to
the east. That said, synoptic moisture lingering on the back side of
the departing low, equilibrium levels rising above 10kft over Lake
Erie and a fairly well aligned WNW to NW flow should lead to a short-
lived, but favorable window for a period of moderate lake effect
snow east and southeast of Lake Erie Sunday evening into the
overnight. Several additional inches of snow will be possible from
the Boston Hills southwestward along and just inland of the
Chautauqua Ridge. Snowfall rates will taper off fairly rapidly by
late Sunday night as upper trough axis passes east of the area
stripping away synoptic moisture and drier air associated with high
pressure in the lower levels approaching from the west causes
equilibrium levels to crash, effectively shutting down the lake
effect machine for the most part.
Weather overall quiets down on Monday as coastal low moves northeast
off the New England coast and next system to impact our area moves
into the upper Midwest. However, will still have a NW backing to WNW
flow moving across the Lakes with air off the deck remaining cool
enough to generate a lake response. With that in mind, do expect a
few scattered light snow showers SE of the Lakes through the day.
Next system moves east into the upper Great Lakes Monday night, with
an attendant warm front set to approach western NY. This may bring
some general light warm advection snows to areas south of Lake
Ontario with largely an inch or less for areas south of Lake
Ontario. However, winds will back from W to SW aligning down Lake
Erie, which may help to locally enhance snowfall amounts a bit E and
NE of the Lake.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain below average with highs Monday
ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Lows Sunday night and Monday
night will range from the teens across the North Country to the 20s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the
remainder of the week...with clipper lows passing across our region
with general light snow or rain, to be followed by a brief period of
mainly lake effect snow, with possible rain at lower elevations.
The 12Z GFS is slightly faster than the 00Z ECMWF especially towards
the end of the week...and will generally lean towards NBM, with snow
showers possible each day across portions of our region.
Warmest day will likely be Thursday, when ahead of a deeper trough,
southerly flow will bring surface temperatures well into the
40s...possibly topping the 50 degree mark in a few spots.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread light snow with mainly MVFR to low-end VFR CIGS will end
by early afternoon over western NY. No VSBY reduction as the snow is
quite light. A few remnant lake effect snow showers will also impact
KROC while skies stay clear at KART. All areas for rest of afternoon
will be VFR, except at KJHW where MVFR cigs will be stubborn to
depart.
Conditions will deteriorate all areas tonight except KART...as a
broad area of low pressure will move into the region with widespread
light snow. MVFR cigs will gradually give way to IFR vsbys for most
of the TAF sites across the western counties. LIFR vsbys are
expected at KJHW.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with occasional light
snow and lake effect snow showers.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves staying just strong enough to maintain Small Craft
Advisories into the afternoon on Lake Ontario, but even these drop
off overnight tonight.
Broad low pressure will settle over the region tonight and Sunday.
While this will support widespread snow...gentle winds can be
expected later tonight and Sunday morning. Winds will freshen on
both lakes late Sunday and Sunday night...but waves are currently
forecast to hold below SCA criteria.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JLA/RSH
MARINE...JLA/RSHHazardous weather outlook, Nov 27, 3:44 AM EST, 10 hours 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 NYZ010-012-019-020-085-281000- Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A relatively weak storm system will spread a few inches of snow across the region tonight and early Sunday...then several inches of lake snow are expected late Sunday and Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>008-011-013-014-021-281000- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-281000- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-281000- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-281000- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 344 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.