Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021

Winter Weather Advisory 14, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 21, 202116 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 21, 2021, 1:41 PM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 22, 2021, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 21, 2021, 1:41 PM EST (18:41 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 22, 2021, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 22, 2021, 10:28 PM EST
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-02-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-02-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 27 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
641 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

818 
WWUS41 KBUF 211841
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
141 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

NYZ006>008-220245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.210222T1200Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
141 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches
  across the higher terrain.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

EAJ
9 follow-up statements
082 
WWUS41 KBUF 220235
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

NYZ006>008-221045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.210222T1200Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
935 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches across the higher terrain.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
673 
WWUS41 KBUF 220850
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ006>008-221700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.210222T1200Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
350 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult...especially tonight.
  The hazardous conditions could impact this evenings commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
695 
WWUS41 KBUF 221158
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ006>008-222000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.210222T1200Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
658 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Through 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult...especially tonight. 
  The hazardous conditions could impact this evenings commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
226 
WWUS41 KBUF 221330
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
830 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ001>005-010>014-085-221800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210222T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
830 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. 
  Most of the snow will occur through late this morning. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph resulting in patchy blowing snow in 
  open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will continue to impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Icy roads 
are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly refreezes.
Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-222130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
830 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA
619 
WWUS41 KBUF 221342
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
842 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ019>021-221800-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210222T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
842 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
  Most of the snow will occur through late this morning. Winds
  gusting as high as 30 mph resulting in patchy blowing snow in
  open areas.

* WHERE...The western Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will continue to impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-222145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
842 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Icy roads
are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.
 
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010>014-085-221800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210222T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
842 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. 
  Most of the snow will occur through late this morning. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph resulting in patchy blowing snow in 
  open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will continue to impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Icy roads
are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA
721 
WWUS41 KBUF 221759
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1259 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-230000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
1259 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow, mixed with rain at times. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph
  with result in patchy blowing snow in open areas, especially
  inland.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, 
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1259 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA
564 
WWUS41 KBUF 221955
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ001-010-019-085-222100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0000Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
255 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The heavier snow from earlier this afternoon has quickly 
diminished so the advisory is cancelled. Untreated roads could 
still be slippery into the evening commute.

$$

NYZ006>008-230300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
255 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-011>014-020-021-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
255 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches,
  mainly inland where temperatures remain in the lower 30s.
  Visibility could be reduced to less than a half mile during
  periods of heavier snow showers. Winds gusting as high as 30 
  mph.
 
* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Untreated roads will be slippery for the evening
  commute, especially inland where temperatures are still in the
  lower 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA
850 
WWUS41 KBUF 222128
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ002>005-011>014-020-021-222230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
428 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The heavier snow has moved out of the area. Roads still may be
slick in spots.

$$

NYZ006>008-230530-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
428 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
598 
WWUS41 KBUF 230328
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

NYZ006>008-230430-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210223T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1028 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The steadiest snows have ended in the area with any additional
accumulation less than an inch. Roads still may be slick in spots.

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 21, 1:08 PM EST, 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 1:08 PM EST, 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
108 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Last of the lake effect is passing across the east end of Lake
Ontario this afternoon, otherwise high pressure will continue to
pass by to the south. This will provide the vast majority of the
region with a wealth of bright sunshine off a fresh snowpack.
Conditions will deteriorate tonight with thickening clouds and even
a little light snow over the western counties. Fairly widespread
mixed rain and snow on Monday will then accompany the passage of a
slow moving front. A similar pattern will then play out Tuesday,
with another front moving across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tail end of the lake effect from this morning is passing across the
east end of Lake Ontario early this afternoon. As the afternoon
progresses, these lake snow showers will continue to diminish.
Otherwise, visible satellite imagery continues to depict a clear day
across the region due to surface high pressure sliding east across
the Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, to the southwest surface low pressure over the Central
Plains will track northeast today, reaching southern Wisconsin
tonight and from there weaken while it continue its track into
southern Canada. As a result, a wavy slow moving frontal boundary
will cross the region Monday. Tonight, clouds will thicken from west
to east ahead of the system. The lowering cloud cover will likely
result in some light snow after midnight, with any accumulations
remaining under an inch. The only exception to this will be
Chautauqua county where a couple of inches are possible by dawn.

The frontal boundary will cross from west to east Monday and
guarantee the majority of the area of picking up some precipitation.
Speaking of which, precipitation should start of as all snow before
mixing with or changing to some light rain.  Snowfall amounts will
range from under an inch in low lying areas to a couple of inches in
the higher terrain in the Southern Tier and 4 to 6 inches possible
across the Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Residual snow showers will wind down Monday night in the wake of the
cold front. With H850T only dipping briefly to -6C/-8C there likely
won't be much of a response off the lakes. Early Tuesday morning, a
warm front tied to the sub 990mb low over the Hudson Bay will slip
across the Lower Lakes. It will then be followed by the cold front
which looks like will bring a brief window (~3 hrs) of light snow
during the day Tuesday. Might even transition to a mix of rain/snow
as boundary layer temps warm.

Tuesday night, sfc ridge builds briefly in behind the front
providing a narrow window of mainly dry conditions.

Sfc high departs early Wednesday as a fast moving shortwave trough
and the associated sfc low bring in the next round of precipitation.
This go around, it looks more like p-type will be rain and then
transition over briefly to snow with the frontal passage. Wednesday
night, CAA picks up behind the front with H850T falling to -11C/-14C
over the region. While the air mass will become colder with time,
lake snows will be limited as there won't be a lot of moisture to
work with behind the front. Have put low end chance POPs for
Wednesday night with isolated to scattered snow showers south and
southeast of the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level pattern will become amplified again Thursday and
Friday with colder air pouring in over the Eastern Great Lakes with
limited lake effect snow possible to the south and southeast of the
Lakes.

As surface high crests across the region early Friday night, lakes
snows will end, and some clearing could allow for temperatures to
fall off into the single digits to near zero east of Lake Ontario.

Not as cold Saturday on the back side of this surface high, with any
precipitation from the west likely to hold off until either late
afternoon or Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief MVFR cigs possible this afternoon at KART as lake effect
remnants lift through. Otherwise, VFR conditions through most of
tonight with increasing high clouds from the west. Expect the high
clouds to lower to mid-level Alto-cu clouds this evening, then
further lower to VFR strato-cu cigs after midnight. Eventually light
snow will develop late tonight that will drop vsby to 2-5 SM.
Conditions will continue to lower by daybreak to mainly IFR vsby and
MVFR cigs as trough crossing the region brings widespread snow. The
snow will eventually mix with rain in the afternoon especially in
the lower elevations.

Outlook...

Monday night...IFR in light snow over higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with wet snow/rain showers.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure cresting across the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon
will only allow for gentle to moderate breezes with negligible waves.

The surface pressure gradient will then increase across the region
tonight, as exiting high pressure will give way to a slow moving
frontal system. This will prompt winds to freshen overnight, but ice
on Lake Erie and an offshore flow on Lake Ontario will keep
significant wave action out of the NY nearshore waters.

Fresh southerlies Monday morning will veer to the southwest in the
wake of a slow moving cold front during the afternoon. This will
support some rougher conditions in the open waters of Lake Ontario
and for the nearshore waters north of Mexico Bay, but the highest
wave action will be in Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/RSH
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/Thomas
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...EAJ/RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 4:42 AM EST, 8 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
442 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

NYZ008-220945-
Lewis-
442 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Snowfall associated with a slow moving frontal boundary could
accumulate 3 to 5 inches Monday and Monday night...mainly over the
southern portion of the county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>007-010>014-019>021-085-220945-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
442 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-220945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
442 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 21, 9:35 AM EST, 4 hours 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E EAST AURORA         42.76N 78.60W
02/21/2021  M12.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-66 EAST AURORA 1.0
            ESE; 24 HOUR TOTAL.

1200 AM     SNOW             SPRINGVILLE             42.51N 78.66W
02/21/2021  M10.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-195 SPRINGVILLE 0.4
            NE.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W COLDEN              42.65N 78.71W
02/21/2021  M9.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CODN6 COLDEN 1W; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 WSW ELMA CENTER       42.81N 78.68W
02/21/2021  M8.7 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-96 ELMA 2.7 WSW; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NW SOUTH WALES        42.73N 78.61W
02/21/2021  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-158 EAST AURORA 2.7
            SSE; 24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.77N 78.62W
02/21/2021  M7.2 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-50 EAST AURORA 0.1
            ENE; 24 HOUR TOTAL.

1159 PM     SNOW             3 W WEBSTER             43.21N 77.49W
02/20/2021  M6.1 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-MR-26 WEBSTER 3.2 W.

0830 AM     SNOW             3 NNE MENDON            43.03N 77.49W
02/21/2021  M5.5 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-MR-21 PITTSFORD 4.0 SSE;
            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0736 AM     SNOW             2 N HAMBURG             42.75N 78.83W
02/21/2021  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-189 HAMBURG 2.0 N; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

0730 AM     SNOW             SILVER CREEK            42.54N 79.17W
02/21/2021  M5.3 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION SILN6 SILVER CREEK;
            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             HAMBURG                 42.72N 78.84W
02/21/2021  M5.3 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-39 HAMBURG 0.4 WSW;
            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NE HONEOYE FALLS      42.97N 77.57W
02/21/2021  M4.7 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-MR-55 HONEOYE FALLS 1.7
            NE; 24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NW GAINESVILLE        42.69N 78.22W
02/21/2021  M4.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WRSN6 WARSAW 6SW; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE GLENWOOD           42.60N 78.64W
02/21/2021  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-63 GLENWOOD 1.5 SE;
            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSE SILVER CREEK      42.53N 79.16W
02/21/2021  M4.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-27 SILVER CREEK 1.0
            SSE; 24 HOUR TOTAL.

0425 AM     SNOW             1 S DUNKIRK             42.47N 79.33W
02/21/2021  M3.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION DKKN6 DUNKIRK 1S; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 21, 10:08 AM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAST AURORA        42.74N 78.59W
02/21/2021  M8.2 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WLSN6 WALES; 24 HOUR
            TOTAL.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 21, 11:02 AM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW ALBION             43.26N 78.22W
02/21/2021  M5.0 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-OL-4 ALBION 1.9 NW; 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

&&

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.