Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1142 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow passage of a cold front through the day will produce
showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from the Genesee
Valley to the Finger Lakes and North Country. Some locally
dense fog could occur tonight, then high pressure will bring a
return to drier weather for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface cold front continuing to slowly push across the area
late this morning and is near a Watertown to Jamestown line.
Widespread showers occurring along and ahead of the front. Only
lightning of note occurring well south and east of our area.
Window for thunderstorms growing smaller with morning overcast
holding down instability. This will likely remain the case for
the most part as the cold front eventually slides into eastern
New York by mid afternoon. Still could have some embedded
thunder across the Finger Lakes and North Country, but severe
risk appears to be lowering.

For tonight, rain showers end quickly Finger Lakes to North Country
while high pressure builds in. Some lingering mid to high clouds in
wake of the front, but once these clear out temps will drop into the
50s most spots which could result in locally dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a period of dry weather Thursday through the majority of
Friday as high pressure overhead of the eastern Great Lakes Thursday
morning pushes north of New England throughout the day on Thursday.
Then Friday, the center of the high will advance east across the
Canadian maritimes, however the ridge axis will extend westward
across the region maintaining the fairly dry weather. The one
exception to this is the passing tropical cyclone along the Atlantic
coastline. As the cyclone rides the coastline, a plume of warm
tropical moisture will advect into the region. The additional
moisture along with the instability produced by daytime heating may
support a few showers Friday afternoon.

Then, a mid-level trough will cross to the north of the area
Saturday supporting a weak surface cold front to sweep across the
region. Even though the best forcing will lie to the north of the
area, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
frontal passage Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging aloft Sunday through Tuesday will support a large area of
surface high pressure to reside over the region. This will allow for
mainly dry weather for the end of the weekend and start of the new
work week.

Due to the ridging, southerly flow will advect warmer air across the
region, causing above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the 80s
with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers still impacting most of the TAF sites late this morning.
Threat of thunder looks quite low, but not zero and only at KART
and KJHW through about 18z, with these areas still need to have
the cold front move through.

IFR to MVFR CIGS have developed over the area this morning. Expect
these lower conditions to improve gradually as the cold front
crosses our region this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tonight...VFR in the evening. Some fog developing overnight with
localized IFR.
Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front working across the lower Great Lakes early today.
Synoptic wind speeds will gradually weaken to 10 to 15 knots out
of the north-northwest by this afternoon. Wind speeds lower
further tonight.

A broad upper level ridge will build over the area Thursday bringing
a period northeast winds less than 15 knots with light southeast
winds developing by Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JLA/TMA
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
521 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-160930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
521 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>008-013-014-020-021-160930-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
521 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly from late
this morning through mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-160930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
521 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ021-151715-
Allegany NY-
1241 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Allegany County through 115 PM EDT...

At 1240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alfred, or 11 miles north of Wellsville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, half inch hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Alfred, Andover, Angelica, Almond and West Almond.

This includes Interstate 86 between exits 31 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4219 7802 4237 7801 4238 7773 4219 7774
      4216 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 272DEG 23KT 4228 7789

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJR