Special Marine Warning 96, NWS Buffalo, NY

761 
FZUS71 KBUF 300413
MWSBUF

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1213 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

LOZ030-300420-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MA.W.0096.000000T0000Z-210830T0445Z/
1213 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were...
  The Lower Niagara River...

The thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer 
poses a significant threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 4247 7960 4248 7960 4263 7945 4283 7893
      4292 7890 4296 7893 4299 7902 4307 7901
      4308 7907 4307 7885 4301 7884 4298 7888
      4289 7885 4285 7880 4277 7881 4270 7891
      4266 7901 4263 7902 4253 7912 4245 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 289DEG 25KT 4256 7918 

$$

LEZ020-040-041-061-300445-
/O.CON.KBUF.MA.W.0096.000000T0000Z-210830T0445Z/
1213 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

For the following areas...    
  Lake Erie from Dunkirk to Buffalo... 
  The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor...

At 1210 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sunset Bay, or
8 nm northeast of Dunkirk, moving east at 25 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and 
         suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Van Buren Point, Small Boat Harbor, Lake Erie Beach, Grand Island,
Wanakah, Woodlawn Beach, Erie Basin Marina, Sturgeon Point, Dunkirk,
Athol Springs, Bayview and Sunset Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the
open water stay below deck if possible, keep away from ungrounded
metal objects.

&&

LAT...LON 4247 7960 4248 7960 4263 7945 4283 7893
      4292 7890 4296 7893 4299 7902 4307 7901
      4308 7907 4307 7885 4301 7884 4298 7888
      4289 7885 4285 7880 4277 7881 4270 7891
      4266 7901 4263 7902 4253 7912 4245 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 289DEG 25KT 4256 7918 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...40KTS

$$

Mitchell

801 
FZUS71 KBUF 300432
MWSBUF

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1232 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

LEZ020-040-041-061-300441-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MA.W.0096.000000T0000Z-210830T0445Z/
1232 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were... 
  Lake Erie from Dunkirk to Buffalo... 
  The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor...

The thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a
significant threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 4247 7960 4248 7960 4263 7945 4283 7893
      4292 7890 4296 7893 4299 7902 4307 7901
      4308 7907 4307 7885 4301 7884 4298 7888
      4289 7885 4285 7880 4277 7881 4270 7891
      4266 7901 4263 7902 4253 7912 4245 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 278DEG 35KT 4253 7890 

$$

Mitchell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
730 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy and very warm early tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Storms end from west to east by
early Monday with a drier and less humid airmass spreading into the
region. Seasonable temperatures and dry for the vast majority of the
region through the rest of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection has diminished for now.

A surface low crossing central Quebec tonight will push a cold front
towards our region late tonight. Ahead of this cold front, showers
and thunderstorms currently across lower Michigan and southern
Ontario will reach much of the region overnight. The 0-6 km bulk
wind shear vectors continue to remain weak within this near zonal
flow aloft. The primary threat for storms will be heavy rainfall.

Monday, showers and storms will diminish from west to east through
the morning hours as the front exits the region. A cooler and
progressively drier airmass will then filter in across the region
for the rest of the day. Highs anticipated in the upper 70s to low
80s with less humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push south of the area Monday night, ushering
in a cooler and less humid air mass. Nighttime temperatures
will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Zonal westerly flow on Tuesday, with mainly rain-free conditions.
The only exception is across the Western Southern Tier where an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out due to the
closer proximity to the stalled front. Winds will shift to the
northeast Tuesday night as strong surface high pressure builds
across Ontario province.

After this, the remnants of Ida will track across the mid-Atlantic
states around Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show strong
high pressure to our north will keep the tropical remnants to the
south of the forecast area, but there will be a very sharp gradient
with significant rainfall possible just south of the NY/PA state
line. There's little doubt that most of the area will remain rain-
free, with a small chance the Western Southern Tier will get clipped
by some rain Wednesday. Otherwise, there will be a cool
northeasterly flow due to the pressure gradient between the strong
high pressure system and the remnant low passing to our south and
east. High temperatures will only range from the upper 60s to lower
70s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough across New England on Thursday will slide
east with a ridge building across the lower Great Lakes through
Friday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will drift east across
the area which will provide a continuation of dry weather. It
will be cooler, but generally comfortable, with highs ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday.

Over the weekend, a shortwave will dig across Ontario province with
a series of weak frontal boundaries potentially crossing the region.
There's some model disagreement if there will be a warm frontal
passage ahead of a cold front or just a cold front. Either way,
Saturday should be mainly rain-free with just a small chance for
showers Saturday night and Sunday. It will be slightly warmer, with
highs in the 70s over the weekend. There's some potential it could
be 5 degrees warmer (or cooler) than forecast depending on the
progression of the warm front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection will wane this evening, then another round of storms will
be likely just ahead of a cold front overnight. Again, brief
reductions will be possible with any storms.

Patches of fog and low stratus are possible across the hills of
SW NYS (KJHW) overnight.

Monday, showers and storms will clear area terminals from west to
east by mid morning with VFR conditions resuming areawide.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR to MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

Monday night through Thursday...mainly VFR. Patchy valley fog
possible across the Southern Tier each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, winds will increase ahead of a cold front. The southwest
wind flow tonight will keep most of the higher waves towards the
Canadian waters and though winds will potentially reach advisory
levels, the higher waves will generally remain just offshore, save
for the very far eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario.

Winds remain elevated on Lake Ontario Monday while becoming
westerly. This will likely produce a narrow window of small craft
conditions on the eastern end of the lake. However, on lake Erie
winds will diminish while becoming westerly and likely won't meet
small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...AR/Thomas/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
506 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-300915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-
506 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight.
A few storms will contain torrential downpours which may lead to
isolated flooding.

The heat index will rise into the low to mid 90s for several hours
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-300915-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
506 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight.
A few storms will contain torrential downpours which may lead to
isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-300915-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
506 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight.
A few storms will contain torrential downpours which may lead to
isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-300915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
506 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
529 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

NYZ013-014-292200-
Ontario NY-Livingston NY-
529 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Ontario County through 600 PM EDT...

At 526 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Naples, or 15 miles east of Dansville, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Rushville and Hunt Hollow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 7753 4279 7720 4276 7719 4276 7726
      4272 7734 4267 7736 4267 7737 4258 7737
      4258 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 249DEG 6KT 4259 7739

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mitchell