Lakeshore Flood Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

690 
WHUS41 KBUF 050914
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

NYZ006-007-051700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
414 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of high lake levels and significant 
  wave action will result in lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-051700-
/O.EXA.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-
414 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-051700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
414 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

Apffel

395 
WHUS41 KBUF 051743
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

NYZ006-007-060145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
1243 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion is 
  also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-060145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1243 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

744 
WHUS41 KBUF 052140
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
440 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

NYZ006-007-060600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
440 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-060600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
440 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

612 
WHUS41 KBUF 060323
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1023 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

NYZ006-007-061130-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
1023 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-061130-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1023 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

114 
WHUS41 KBUF 060747
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

NYZ006-007-061800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
247 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-061800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.211206T1500Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
247 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

Apffel

775 
WHUS41 KBUF 061517
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

NYZ006-007-070000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
1017 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-070000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1017 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

646 
WHUS41 KBUF 061947
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

NYZ006-007-070400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.211206T2100Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
247 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-070000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
247 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

271 
WHUS41 KBUF 062258
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
558 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

NYZ006-007-070700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
558 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-070300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
558 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property along the 
  lakeshore. Spray from high waves and onshore wind may impact 
  Route 5 in Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents on or near the shore should take appropriate action to
protect property from rising water levels.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

543 
WHUS41 KBUF 070302
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

NYZ010-019-085-070415-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LS.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1002 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The water level on Lake Erie will continue to drop overnight as
winds diminish.

$$

NYZ006-007-070900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-
1002 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Minor lakeshore flooding expected.

* WHERE...Lake Ontario shore of Oswego and Jefferson counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong winds and significant wave 
  action will result in minor lakeshore flooding along the 
  immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. Shoreline erosion 
  is also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off
breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are
often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.
Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures
and extremely dangerous boating conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1250 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region for the second half
of the weekend. A strong area of low pressure will then bring the
potential for rain showers, along with some strong, damaging winds
to the region Sunday night and Monday. This will be followed by
some negligible lake effect snows east and southeast of the Lakes
for Monday night into the first part of Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Core of a 150kt upper jet will cross over the region through the
first half of tonight, while a deamplifying mid level shortwave
trough and associated weakening surface low move across far southern
Quebec to coastal Maine by early Sunday morning.

Cold front attached to weakening low moving by to our north has
dropped 850Ts to around -10C over Lake Ontario. This is cold
enough to support lake effect snow early this morning.
Additional support from upstream connections off Georgian Bay
will produce light accumulations E and ESE of Lake Ontario, with
a few inches possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks.
Much less favorable conditions over Lake Erie, so not much of
anything expected across western areas. Lake effect snow
showers E and ESE of Lake Ontario will taper off late tonight as
equilibrium levels quickly lower as drier air and subsidence
associated with high pressure moves into our region. Winds will
diminish through the overnight as well. Lows tonight generally
range through the 20s, with some upper teens across the Tug Hill
and western Dacks.

Aside from a few lingering lake effect snow showers ESE of Lake
Ontario through the first part of Sunday morning, high pressure
builds in across the lower Great Lakes for the second half of the
weekend. This will provide a dry and pleasant early December day
with possibly some peaks of sun, eventually fading behind increasing
mid and upper level clouds ahead of an approaching warm front.
Daytime highs will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s south of
Lake Ontario, to the low and mid 30s east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...

Headline Changes and Key Points...

Added Lewis County to the High Wind Watch for Sunday night through
Monday. The first phase of this event (strong downslope winds along
the Lake Erie shore and Black River Valley) still looks favorable
for watch/warning criteria gusts. The second phase of this event
(post-frontal winds northeast of the lakes) continues to look less
impressive in the past few model runs, and looks less and less
likely to reach watch/warning criteria.

Synoptic Setup...

A strong mid level trough will move from the Northern Plains Sunday
night to the Upper Great Lakes Monday. A strong and deepening area
of low pressure will move from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Sunday night to central Quebec by late Monday, with a trailing cold
front crossing the eastern Great Lakes late morning through mid
afternoon Monday. The northern stream trough will partially phase
with southern stream energy moving through the Ohio Valley,
resulting in a weak baroclinic wave along the advancing cold front
on Monday. This presence of this weak frontal wave is likely
interfering with the post-frontal wind fields and resulting in
lowering high wind potential Monday afternoon.

Precipitation...

A broad area of strong warm advection will develop Sunday night,
supporting increasing chances of rain overnight. There may be a
brief window of mixed precipitation in Lewis County at the leading
edge, otherwise it will be more than warm enough for all rain. The
precipitation pattern and amounts will be modulated by strengthening
downslope winds, with lower rain chances and lower rain amounts on
the lake plains and across the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes
owing to downslope drying of the low levels.

The cold front will then sweep east across the area Monday, with a
few hours of rain showers. The aforementioned frontal wave may bring
a little longer period of rain and higher rain totals from the
western Southern Tier to eastern Lake Ontario region.

Winds...

The strong wind potential will come in two phases. First, a strong
SSW low level jet will cross the region Sunday night, setting the
stage for strong downslope winds. The low level jet reaches the
western Southern Tier by Sunday evening, with 60-65 knots just above
the ridge tops. Forecast soundings suggest a stable layer near the
top of the terrain barrier with a strong low level inversion in
place. This will set the stage for a downslope wind event, with
stable flow accelerating down the lee slopes of the Chautauqua
Ridge. The magnitude of the low level jet and thermal structure
suggest a good potential for a few gusts to near 60 mph near the
Lake Erie shore and northward facing slopes of western Chautauqua
and southern Erie counties.

This same low level jet will reach the eastern Lake Ontario region
later Sunday night through Sunday morning, and even strengthen a
little to 65-70 knots. The same stability profiles are in place,
with a strong inversion and stable layer near the top of the terrain
barrier. The orientation of the low level jet to the underlying
terrain suggests strong downslope winds along the north facing
slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau from southeast Jefferson to northwest
Lewis County. Local downsloping can also occur off the western
slopes of the Adirondacks and local channeling in the Black River
Valley can produce strong winds from central Lewis County northward
towards Fort Drum. Both of these areas may see gusts to 60 mph later
Sunday night through Monday morning.

The second phase of this wind event will be post-frontal winds
Monday afternoon and evening. The track of the deepening surface low
is quite favorable (maybe a little too far northwest of our area),
but model guidance over the past few runs continues to back off on
the magnitude of the post-frontal low level jet. This may be due to
the development of a weak baroclinic wave along the advancing cold
front, courtesy of a phasing southern stream shortwave. Forecast
soundings in the post-frontal environment now only have 40-45 knots
at the top of the boundary layer available for mixing.

There is a decent tropopause fold associated with the mid level
trough, with the 1.5 PVU surface decending down to below 500MB. The
slightly too far north track of the system however places this
feature across Southern Ontario, missing our region by around 100
miles. There are decent pressure rises (around 12MB/6HR) and strong
cold advection behind the cold front, promoting steep lapse rates,
subsidence, and good mixing. The lack of stronger winds aloft in
forecast soundings is the main limiting factor.

The negatives are starting to outweigh the positives for the second
phase of this wind event. It is still 2 days away however and there
is still a window for model guidance to reverse the trend. With all
the above in mind, kept the High Wind Watch, but lowered peak wind
gusts to 50-55 mph northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for
Monday afternoon and evening. This may even be generous if the 12Z
guidance verifies. If the model trends continue, High Wind Warnings
may only be needed for the downslope areas ahead of this system,
with advisories elsewhere.

Lake Effect Snow...

A westerly flow of colder air from late Monday through Tuesday will
set the stage for lake effect snow east of the lakes. Rapidly drying
air will greatly limit this potential however, despite the cold
airmass.

Off Lake Erie, expect a band of snow Monday evening across Southern
Erie/Wyoming counties to drift farther south into the Southern Tier
overnight, before weakening to light snow showers by Tuesday
morning. Accumulations look minor, with a few inches possible across
higher terrain.

Off Lake Ontario...some upstream connection to Lake Huron may give a
little boost to available moisture, but the event still looks
relatively weak. Expect a band of snow to develop across the Tug
Hill later Monday evening, then drift south into Oswego County by
Tuesday morning before weakening by Tuesday afternoon. The Tug Hill
Plateau may squeeze out marginal advisory amounts, with minor
accumulations for the surrounding lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Subtle upper level ridging overhead of the Lower Great Lakes along
with surface high pressure spanning across the region early Tuesday
night will continue to support a diminishing trend in the lake
effect activity east of both lakes.

Then, later Tuesday night through Wednesday the next system will
then affect the region as an upper level longwave trough pivots its
axis towards the east coast and ultimately supporting a wave of low
pressure to pass by to the south of the region. This wave will then
trek northward in the Atlantic along the east coast. Overall, this
will likely support a period of snow late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. As the low pulls off the coast of New England
Wednesday night, the steadier snows will diminish, however some
light lake effect snows south of Lake Ontario will be possible as
850 mb temperatures briefly cool to around -10C.

Thursday, surface high pressure and corresponding upper level
ridging will push across the area and support a quiet day.

Looking further ahead towards the next systems impacting Friday and
the weekend, long range model guidance packages diverge with their
timing and placement. For the system for Friday, a shortwave will
pass overhead and support slight chances for a mix of rain and snow
showers across the area. This will then be followed by the next
stronger system, a surface low crossing the Central Plains and then
strengthening as it travels northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes.
Both the Canadian and ECMWF support a slower progression with this
system, while the GFS has a quicker advancement. Due the model
discrepancies, forecast confidence is quite reserved and therefore
have just chances for some rain and snow showers Saturday. Have to
keep an eye on this as time advances, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period.
Increasing mid-level clouds with a warm front during the day,
but these will still be well above 3k feet. Widespread LLWS
tonight when a strong LLJ with 925mb winds increasing to 60 kts
at some areas. These generally won't mix to the surface but will
result in LLWS tonight.

Outlook...
Monday...Mainly MVFR or IFR. Very windy. Rain showers changing
to snow showers by late in the day.
Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes,
otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. Snow likely.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish overnight as high pressure
builds in, but lingering wave action will prolong SCA headlines
across Lake Ontario for a few hours.

High pressure will bring a brief window of lighter winds Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday, deepening low pressure0 will pass by to our
west and north bringing the potential of gale force winds on both
lakes Monday into Monday night. A Gale Watch remains in effect for
all of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for Monday into Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WSW gales to 40 knots Monday and night will produce significant
wave action on Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels
and significant wave action may result in lakeshore flooding in
Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Strong winds may also produce a seiche on Lake Erie, but winds
will not be as strong with levels less likely to cause flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late
     Monday night for NYZ006-007.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through late Monday night
     for NYZ007-008.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     NYZ001>003-010>012.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
         night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JM
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...AR/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021-051800-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong winds are possible Sunday night and Monday, with gusts over
45 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>012-051800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-051800-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-051800-
Lewis-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-051800-
Jefferson-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-051800-
Oswego-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-051800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-051800-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-051800-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-051800-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1249 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock