Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will wind down
this evening ahead of a cold front advancing through the North
Country tonight. Seasonable conditions will arrive on Friday,
followed by a return of higher humidity for the start of next
week along with chances of showers. Another, stronger cold front
is expected to provide drier and cooler conditions for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...A welcome cold front is beginning to
advance from the northwest and will continue slowly progressing
through the North Country this evening and overnight. Ahead of
the front, surface based instability is high with 2000 to 3000
J/kg common. Due to a low shear environment of 20 to 25 knots
and abundant dry air above the boundary layer, showers and
thunderstorms will remain isolated to scattered (20 - 40%) but
potentially strong through this evening. Impacts will be briefly
gusty winds and small hail as indicated by inverted V soundings
and associated downdraft CAPE, along with heavy rain and
lightning. These showers and thunderstorms are favored along and
south of ongoing convection in central Vermont, as storms shift
gradually south as they slide eastward. Similarly, development
of showers north of Lake Ontario along a lake-breeze convergent
zone are sliding towards the St. Lawrence Valley, which may lead
to isolated thunderstorms moving east- southeastward across
southern portions of our northern New York counties. Showers and
thunderstorms should exit these areas by midnight with dry
conditions areawide through the rest of the near term period.

Behind the front, winds will tend to be light and variable for
awhile as it does not feature a strong temperature/density
gradient. Winds then should trend a bit breezy (8 to 12 MPH in
the wide valleys) towards daybreak. Only then will substantially drier
air filter into the region, which will feel quite pleasant in
contrast to the rich low level moisture in place at this time.
By 8 AM, dew points in the 55 to 60 range will be seen across
northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. While the
surface front will be south of the entire region by that time,
some warm and relatively moist air aloft will remain over the
southern portions of Vermont which will work to limit
instability. This north to south temperature gradient will be
reflected by high temperatures, which should reach into the
middle 80s in lower elevations of Rutland and Windsor counties,
with mid and upper 70s in most other locations where fair
weather cumulus will be likely. As surface high pressure remains
north of the area while sliding to the east, north winds will
begin to turn easterly tomorrow night and a warm front will
approach. A slight chance of showers late in the night is
offered for southwest portions of St. Lawrence County as
overrunning precipitation will try to move in from the west.
Comfortable dew points will allow temperatures to drop down into
the 50s in most locations, or upper 40s in the Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...On Saturday, surface high pressure will
span across far eastern North America and begin shifting offshore.
As it does so, a warm front will nose into the North Country. There
are some timing differences as to how quickly surface high pressure
moves offshore and how quickly moisture returns to the lower levels.
It will at least be a cloudy day with cool air anchored in eastern
Vermont and reinforced by the southeasterly flow with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, while warmer air should easily enter the St.
Lawrence Valley and allow daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Abundant clouds will likely keep lows in the 60s, outside of some
50s still likely east of the Green Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...The weekend will be somewhat active with
streaks of moisture embedded within shortwave ridging overhead. None
of these are tied to any strong vort max or synoptic scale forcing,
which makes timing the likelihood of occurrence a challenge. By
Monday afternoon into the overnight hours, a strong frontal boundary
will shift southeast. About 35 knots of 0-6km shear will be present
with 1000 J/kg of CAPE along with a 100 kt jet streak just north of
Montreal, which would be somewhat favorable for our region. The
surface low is well to our north though, which has a tendency of
keeping us well removed from better dynamical support, but it's
something worth monitoring. Much cooler conditions reside behind the
front. Seasonable conditions return for a few days. Towards next
Thursday/Friday, it seems a strong trough will dig into the
northeastern US, and we'll see whether we develop deep southwesterly
flow or maintain a more zonal pattern aloft with northerly winds
near the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue at all
terminals. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop, potentially impacting PBG and BTV in the 19Z to 21Z
period and 21Z to 00Z period in the vicinity of MPV and RUT.
Winds will be occasionally gusty out of the southwest at SLK,
MSS, and EFK through about 00Z. Otherwise, light winds across
the airspace will trend northerly by 12Z and remain under 10
knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-035.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kutikoff

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>