Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
745 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will provide some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across northern areas during the late
afternoon into evening hours before dissipating towards midnight.
More numerous showers and storms are likely Tuesday as the front
drops through the region, with drier weather expected Wednesday.
More showers are expected late Thursday into Friday along another
cold frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 615 PM EDT Monday...Updates to reflect higher PoPs of
40-60% across portions of the SLV/Dacks through 800 pm or so per
latest radar trends. Added some brief gusty winds/small hail
wording in this area also through that time frame along with
greater degree of cloud cover, though overall probabilities of
severe weather remain low. Beyond 900 pm the forecast is largely
in good shape so no adjustments into the overnight hours. Have
a great evening!

Prior discussion...
Isolated/scattered thunderstorms have developed over southern
Ontario and Quebec this afternoon in response to a cold front
moving southward through the area. This activity will slowly
drift southward as well, moving across the St Lawrence Valley
through the afternoon and eventually pushing eastward across the
remainder of northern NY into VT late this evening. With steep
low level lapse rates, some of the more robust cells could
produce locally gusty winds as they pass through, particularly
in the St Lawrence Valley owing to the more optimal time of day.
Further east, the convection will move through after peak
heating and while thunder will be possible, gusty winds will not
be as likely. Otherwise, expect the hazy conditions to continue
through this evening as smoke drifts over the region. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

The cold front will move southward through the North Country on
Tuesday, allowing more showers and thunderstorms to spring up. Model
consensus is now indicating an earlier frontal passage, which will
help limit the potential for thunderstorms to mainly southern
sections. SB CAPE values will only top out at 600 J/kg or so, but 0-
6km shear will be an ample 40+ kt. Hence, stronger storms will be
possible, capable of producing strong wind gusts. Note that the
latest Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from SPC has our southern areas
contained within a Marginal Risk, which seems reasonable at this
time. High temperatures will be variable depending given the cold
front passing through; northern areas will top out around 70 while
southern locations will approach 80. Showers will shift southward
through the evening hours with storm potential waning as the front
moves to our south. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday should be pleasant, with light
northerly flow along the northeast periphery of surface high
pressure, temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s and
minimal cloud cover. That surface high sets directly overhead
Wednesday night, which should make for favorable fog conditions, and
have already added it into the climatological fog hot-spots. Lows
will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Thursday should start fairly quiet, as high
pressure shifts offshore, we'll get return flow and see increasing
clouds and moisture. A warm front will approach the region during
the afternoon with warm advection precipitation lifting north, and
then the attendant surface low and associate cold front should pass
through overnight. Instability is fairly marginal at this time, but
about 500 J/kg lingers into the overnight hours with a favorable
upper jet configuration currently depicted in the 12Z GFS and modest
45-50 knots of 0-6 km shear. Storms could linger into Thursday
night. While the cold front will have pushed south Friday, cooling
aloft and a vigorous vort max descending into the base of an upper
trough should generate some more shower activity, especially across
Vermont in the afternoon. The airmass is cool for this time of year,
with Friday afternoon highs struggling to get above 70, and
overnight lows in the low 40s to near 50.

Over the weekend, a broad longwave trough will dominate the pattern,
as has been the case much of this summer. Long range guidance
indicates an anomalous upper low will amble southwards (a few
ensembles and deterministic guidance suggests a highly amplified
feature), which should drag another front across the region
Sunday/Monday. There are some timing differences related to the size
and strength of the upper low, so will advertise just a chance for
both Sunday and Monday for now, but Saturday looks likely to be a
dry, pleasant day. But the overall pattern seems to remain favorable
for below normal temperatures, with this upper low being slow to
allow warmer air and moisture back in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR through 12Z.
Scattered showers/isolated storms through 03Z, then dissipating.
Activity may contain brief gusty winds and MVFR/IFR
visibilities. Then patchy areas of BR/FG overnight at selected
terminals from 04-12Z, mainly at KMSS/KSLK and KMPV. Again,
MVFR/IFR possible with this. Winds light overnight. After 12Z
Tuesday conditions improve to VFR behind a weak cold front.
Winds to shift to northerly at 5-10 kts, with some shower
activity possible after 15Z, mainly at KMSS/KSLK/KRUT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-270730-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NYZ026-029-030-087-262215-
Northern St. Lawrence-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern
Franklin-Southwestern St. Lawrence-
549 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FRANKLIN AND EAST
CENTRAL ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Potsdam, moving
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Potsdam, Parishville, Colton, Norwood, Madrid, West Stockholm, West
Potsdam, Converse, West Parishville and Hannawa Falls.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4466 7514 4477 7508 4464 7459 4448 7470
      4453 7494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 290DEG 31KT 4470 7501

Kutikoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
618 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NYZ087-262245-
Southwestern St. Lawrence-
618 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...

At 618 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hammond, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gouverneur, Fowler, Hammond, Rossie, Edwards, Chippewa Bay, South
Hammond, Fullerville, Talcville, Balmat, West Fowler and Nelson
Corner.

LAT...LON 4449 7570 4432 7520 4417 7535 4439 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 310DEG 29KT 4438 7571

Kutikoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
655 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VTZ012-262330-
Windsor-
655 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WINDSOR COUNTY...

At 653 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pomfret,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
White River Junction, Woodstock, Barnard, Woodstock Village, Sharon,
Quechee, Pomfret, Norwich, Hartland, Royalton, Hartford, Bridgewater,
Queechee State Park, North Hartland Dam Recreation Area, West
Norwich, Silver Lake State Park, West Hartford, North Royalton, East
Barnard and Taftsville.

LAT...LON 4369 7268 4385 7257 4376 7221 4375 7222
      4374 7225 4370 7231 4367 7231 4364 7232
      4360 7234 4358 7238 4354 7238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 297DEG 20KT 4373 7251

Kutikoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VTZ008-012-018-270000-
Windsor-Washington-Eastern Addison-
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ADDISON...
NORTHWESTERN WINDSOR AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 724 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lincoln, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxbury, Granville, Lincoln, Warren, Ripton, Hancock, Bristol, South
Lincoln, West Lincoln, East Granville, Alpine Village and Lower
Granville.

LAT...LON 4407 7305 4415 7301 4407 7272 4390 7284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 303DEG 18KT 4409 7296

Kutikoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
847 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VTZ011-012-019-270115-
Eastern Rutland-Western Rutland-Windsor-
847 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTLAND AND CENTRAL
WINDSOR COUNTIES...

At 846 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mendon, moving
southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodstock, Rutland, Killington, Rutland City, Proctor, Plymouth,
Chittenden, Bridgewater, Mendon, West Rutland, Shrewsbury, Pittsford,
Reading, Stockbridge, Barnard, Pomfret, Clarendon, Pittsfield, Ira
and Plymouth Union.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4361 7312 4379 7296 4366 7250 4347 7265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 297DEG 37KT 4366 7288

Kutikoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
913 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VTZ011-012-019-270145-
Eastern Rutland-Western Rutland-Windsor-
913 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RUTLAND
AND CENTRAL WINDSOR COUNTIES...

At 913 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Pomfret to near Plymouth to near
Shrewsbury. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Woodstock, White River Junction, Hartland Four Corners, Cavendish,
Ludlow Village, Mt. Holly, Pomfret, Plymouth, Hartland, Barnard,
Windsor, Woodstock Village, Mount Holly, Ludlow, Shrewsbury, Quechee,
Bridgewater, Reading, Hartford and West Windsor.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4349 7298 4359 7277 4378 7261 4371 7229
      4369 7231 4367 7231 4360 7234 4357 7238
      4354 7238 4351 7240 4350 7238 4343 7240
      4335 7267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 298DEG 23KT 4369 7258 4355 7266 4349 7289

Kutikoff