Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be seen
through the afternoon across northern New York and western
Vermont. A few storms may contain some brief heavy rainfall and
small hail. A lull in precipitation is expected overnight before
another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through
the North Country Tuesday afternoon. Quieter and cooler weather
is expected Wednesday through Friday with surface high pressure
building across the region. Another shot of rainfall looks
possible this weekend as another frontal system approaches the
North Country from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 PM EDT Monday...A destabilizing warm sector has been
developing across northern New York as subsidence in the wake of
the initial shortwave this morning. SPC mesoanalysis has shown
surface based CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg has developed across
northern New York with amounts close to 1000 J/kg developing
across northern New York where the skies have begun to break.
With plentiful moisture working into the region (dewpoints in
the lower 60s), we have seen showers and a few thunderstorms
develop within the warm sector but the lack of any deep layer
shear has kept these storms short-lived and relatively weak. A
secondary shortwave is beginning to work into the St. Lawrence
Valley and will act as a trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across northern New York and parts
of Vermont before the instability wanes this evening. With
freezing levels around 9000 ft and a pocket of cold air aloft
due to the proximity of the upper level low, we have very steep
mid-level lapse rates in place. This will allow for some small
hail to develop in stronger updrafts through the afternoon
hours. The chance for severe remains quite small as the lack of
deep layer shear will keep storms from organizing and forming a
rotating updraft conducive to the development of large hail.
Nevertheless, we will be watching these storms closely through
the evening hours to watch for hail, gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

A lull in rainfall is expected overnight tonight as the
shortwave exits off to the east and we wait for the main trough
passage during the day on Tuesday. A stabilizing surface layer
coupled with light boundary layer winds and recent rainfall
should set the groundwork for some patchy dense fog across the
northern Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountains before
lifting after sunrise. A return of showers is expected during
the late morning/early afternoon hours on Tuesday across
northern New York as the main trough axis swings through. A weak
cold front noted in the surface pressure fields should act as a
catalyst for showers and thunderstorms as that moves through
the region during the day. It wouldn't be surprising to see some
small hail or graupel with some of the stronger thunderstorms
given low freezing level and steep mid-level lapse rates but
once again looks sub-severe. The trough axis should slide east
during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday with shower
activity quickly ending after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...Northwesterly flow develops on
Wednesday and continues into Wednesday night beginning a drying
trend with temperatures cooler. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals during this period, generally highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50. Surface
high pressure will ridge into our area from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...Northwest flow aloft continues over
the region through Friday along with surface high pressure over
the region. This will continue to bring dry weather to the
entire area with a gradual warming trend. Highs by Friday should
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. An upper level trough moves
down from Canada for the weekend and this will bring increasing
precipitation chances from Friday night right into Sunday. The
dry weather will continue into Monday, but warmer air will start
to make it into the region as the flow becomes more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are being
observed across the region with the bulk of the MVFR conditions
existing across Vermont where a thicker cloud layer is currently
present. Breaking clouds will allow most places to improve to
VFR conditions through the afternoon hours before showers and
thunderstorms develop across northern New York around 20Z. It
wouldn't be surprising to see some low MVFR to possibly IFR
visibilities at MSS, SLK and PBG this afternoon if a
thunderstorm passes overhead but ceilings are expected to remain
in the 1500-2500 ft range even in the thunderstorms. A lull in
precipitation is likely overnight and given a stable surface
layer, patchy fog appears likely to develop in the
climatological favorite areas.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
435 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-150845-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
435 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit the area later this
morning, but then redevelop again this afternoon. Any of the
thunderstorms this afternoon will have the potential to produce gusty
winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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