Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
341 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A 500mb long wave trough
continues to dig southward out of the Rockies/Plains into Texas
early this morning. Also, a weakening mid-level ridge currently
prevails over central/northern Mexico with a cutoff low over the
Baja. A series of 500mb short wave troughs upstream will move into
deep south Texas through the period. The combination of the series
of impulses passing overhead and abundant low-level moisture in
place will support periods of convection through the short term.

A mid/upper level short wave currently moving towards the area from
Mexico is generating a cluster of convection just northwest of
Zapata County. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for
Zapata, Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties until 6 AM this morning. The
main threats with any strong to severe storms that develop will be
damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. These storms may
spread into the middle part of the CWA by mid-late morning, but less
likely to be severe by that time. A moist and unstable atmosphere
will keep the threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through today. The Latest 07Z HRRR run
indicates that ongoing convection may collide with previous surface
boundaries allowing for additional development across the Rio Grande
Valley and eastern portions of the CWA later today.

Another short wave trough is expected to develop over Mexico and
move into South Texas later this evening into tonight. This will
likely produce another storm complex to form over northern Mexico
and/or southwest Texas by late this evening and move towards the
CWA. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms for Zapata and portions of Starr and Jim Hogg Counties
in their Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks.

Highs today and Wednesday are expected to range from the lower 80s
at the beaches and the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s inland due to the
increase rain chances and cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight will
fall into the mid to upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Broad
surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
moderate to breezy southeast winds today and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Closed 500 mb low
pressure over the Baja California will morph into mid-level
troughiness over the central United States and yet another closed
500 mb low there during the period. This pattern will produce
generally scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for a vast majority of the
forecast period. The sustained chance for precipitation and the
associated significant cloud cover will result in near to slightly
below daytime high and overnight low temperatures.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Broad high pressure will support
favorable conditions on the Laguna Madre and Gulf water today
through Wednesday. Light to moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible from time to time.

Wednesday Night through Monday: Favorable marine conditions will
prevail through a majority of the period courtesy of weak high
pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Increasing winds and
building seas will then occur for Sunday and Monday due to an
intensifying pressure gradient, resulting in Small Craft Exercise
Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory along the Lower Texas Coast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  76  87  75 /  30  10  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          89  76  89  75 /  30  10  40  40
HARLINGEN            90  75  89  73 /  30  20  40  40
MCALLEN              92  75  91  73 /  40  30  50  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  73  92  72 /  40  40  50  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  82  77 /  20  10  30  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...Caceres-63
Long Term...Tomaselli-66
Upper Air...Reese-58

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-020530-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and
Brooks Counties until 6 AM CDT Tuesday.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Isolated stronger thunderstorms could produce small hail, strong
and gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall/nuisance flooding.

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
Tuesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-020530-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the lower Texas
marine locations from Wednesday through Sunday. Isolated stronger
thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, locally higher seas, and
frequent cloud to water lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
414 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

TXZ249-250-011000-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
414 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JIM HOGG...NORTHWESTERN
BROOKS AND NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

At 412 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mirando City, or 16 miles west of Hebbronville, moving east-southeast
at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hebbronville, Las Lomitas, Gruy Stadium, Thompsonville, Jim Hogg
County Airport, Hebbronville High School, South Fork Estates and
Hebbronville Border Patrol Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9834
      2695 9846 2717 9896 2727 9896 2727 9880
      2735 9880 2735 9879 2736 9863 2734 9862
      2734 9859 2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 290DEG 45KT 2737 9895

TOMASELLI