Special Marine Warning 89, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR to IFR conditions persist where heavy
thunderstorms continue across the lower RGV. Most convective
activity is expected to taper off this evening, returning ceilings
to VFR. The chance of rain continues on Saturday, with little
confidence in timing at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): The biggest question in
the immediate short term is how far south a subtle surface/old
outflow boundary will make it. As of 2:45 PM, it was located in
southern Starr, southern Hidalgo and northern Cameron Counties and
continues to inch south. There's also a coastal trough producing
locally heavy rain along the coast These two entities will the focal
points for more showers and storms through much of the evening. The
boundary will eventually stall near the Rio Grande River tonight,
but the question is where exactly does it stall. The start of the
short term forecast is leaning quite a bit on the HRRR as it has
handled the ongoing convection the best; it suggests the boundary
makes it into Mexico by 00-01Z and see no real reason to deviate
from that too much. With an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
possible through this evening, we will maintain the Flash Flood
Watch for our Coastal Counties and Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, and Brooks
Counties. As the boundary sags south, a strong southerly flow in the
low levels will help create some overrunning showers tonight, so
POPs remain somewhat elevated along the Middle and Lower Rio Grande
and immediate coast through tonight.

The closed H5 low in NM will shift into the Central Plains Saturday
and allow for some ridging to build across southern Texas. This
ridging is represented by the globals showing a touch of drier air
between 850 & 700 mb, so have lowered POPs a touch Saturday
afternoon. However, with PWATs still forecast to be between 1.8 to
2.2", any showers or storms that do develop could produce quite a
bit of rain.

Temperatures tonight will run in the middle to upper 70s. Have
bumped up highs a touch Saturday due to a slightly drier forecast,
but we'll still hover around 90 for the eastern half of the CWA and
the lower to middle 90s out west. Another mild and humid night is in
store Saturday with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Starting with the
synoptic set up, at the 200mb level, a jet streak located over
central Texas partnered with a mid-level positively tilted trough
over the upper Midwest, provides an unstable environment for our
CWA. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to continue into
Sunday. As the jet moves northward, a weak cold front from the
trough over the upper Midwest moves into Deep South Texas for
Monday. GFS/ECMWF show a chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the cold front as it moves through by 12z Monday. The front is
expected to exit the area by Monday evening and be replaced by a
ridge building in the western CONUS bringing us much drier
conditions.

As for high temperatures, due to an abundance of cloud cover and the
arrival of the weak cold front, they will remain slightly below
normal. Low temperatures will remain normal until the front moves
through Monday night and then will be below average through the
period. Dew points start to really take a dive by Tuesday night with
values in the 50-60s. The effects of the front diminish by Friday as
temperatures and dewpoints return to their seasonal averages. As for
the winds, they are expected to turn northerly with the arrival of
the front. They will stay northerly during the daytime hours then
shift to the east overnight. That wind pattern will prevail until
Friday when the winds turn southeasterly again.

MARINE (Tonight through Saturday Night): Ongoing showers and storms in
coastal waters will remain in the forecast through this evening. Any
showers and storms could produce locally enhanced winds and waves.
Outside of the rain and storms, winds have been between 10 to 15
knots with seas near 4 feet, so no SCEC or SCA conditions are in the
forecast tonight. As the pressure gradient further weakens tonight
into Saturday it will allow for a lower southeasterly winds
tomorrow.

Sunday through Friday: Moderate onshore flow will prevail along
the lower Texas coast through the period due to convection over
the coastal waters. Winds turn northerly/easterly due to the
incoming front by Monday afternoon and eventually turn back
southeasterly by Friday. Seas will be at 2 to 3 feet through
Wednesday when they drop off to 1 to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  88  77  87 /  60  40  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  89 /  60  40  40  40
HARLINGEN            75  90  75  88 /  50  40  30  30
MCALLEN              76  90  76  88 /  50  40  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  93  75  91 /  40  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  80  83 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ249>251-
     253>257-351-353.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

56-Hallman...Aviation

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
419 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-022130-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
419 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected into
this evening. Locally heavy rainfall, producing nuisance flooding
in low-lying and poorly-draining areas, is possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Brooks, Jim Hogg, Kenedy,
Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties until 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach on Saturday and again on
Monday night into Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall, producing nuisance
flooding in low-lying and poorly-draining areas, is possible this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-022130-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
419 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may produce periods of locally
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, elevated seas, and wind gusts
up to or greater than 34 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may produce periods of locally
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, elevated seas, and wind gusts
up to or greater than 34 knots Saturday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     FLOOD            2 N BROWNSVILLE         25.95N 97.48W
10/01/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
            ALONG 802/RUBEN TORRES BLVD IN BROWNSVILLE.
            THIS INCLUDES REPORTS OF STRANDED VEHICLES
            NEAR THE WALMART.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     FLOOD            2 ESE BROWNSVILLE       25.92N 97.45W
10/01/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER IN
            THE INTERSECTION OF BOCA CHICA AND CENTRAL
            AVE.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     FLOOD            2 SSW BROWNSVILLE       25.90N 97.50W
10/01/2021                   CAMERON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BROWNSVILLE PD REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
            FLOODING ON E. WASHINGTON ST IN DOWNTOWN
            BROWNSVILLE.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            1 ENE SAN JUAN          26.19N 98.15W
10/01/2021                   HIDALGO            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PICTURE SHOWS PARTS OF FRONTAGE ROAD
            OFF I-2 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON IT
            NEAR SAN JUAN.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     FLOOD            2 NE BROWNSVILLE        25.94N 97.46W
10/01/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC VIDEO SHOWS WATER ENTERING THEIR
            HOUSE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF JAMIE ZAPATA
            AVE AND ROBINDALE RD.

&&

DR