Coastal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

649 
WHUS41 KBOX 060812
CFWBOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
312 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

MAZ024-061200-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210106T1200Z/
Nantucket MA-
312 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways (5.1 to 5.3 feet Mean Lower Low Water).

* WHERE...Nantucket County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Minor coastal flooding begins on Easy Street in 
  Nantucket.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Nantucket Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 8.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 ft, Moderate 2.9 ft, Major 4.4 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/05 AM   5.1/ 5.6   1.5/ 2.0   2.0/ 2.5    4-5     Minor    
 06/06 PM   5.0/ 5.5   1.4/ 1.9   2.0/ 2.5    3-4     Minor    
 07/06 AM   5.4/ 5.9   1.8/ 2.2   2.1/ 2.6     3      Minor    
 07/06 PM   5.1/ 5.6   1.5/ 2.0   2.3/ 2.8     2      Minor    
 08/07 AM   5.6/ 6.1   2.0/ 2.5   2.1/ 2.6    1-2     Minor

&&

$$

MAZ007-019-022-061200-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-210106T1200Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
312 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

* WHAT...Less than one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways (4.2 to 12.3 feet Mean Lower Low Water).

* WHERE...Eastern Plymouth MA, Eastern Essex MA and Barnstable 
  MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Pockets of minor coastal flooding is expected along 
  the North Shore from Gloucester to Newburyport. Wave action 
  will likely cause some washover onto coastal roads around the 
  time of high tide.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Merrimack River near Newburyport MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 4.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/05 AM   9.3/ 9.8  -0.2/ 0.2   1.0/ 1.5     1       None    
 06/05 PM   9.0/ 9.5  -0.6/-0.1   1.0/ 1.5     1       None    
 07/06 AM   9.7/10.2   0.2/ 0.7   1.2/ 1.7     1       None    
 07/06 PM   9.0/ 9.5  -0.6/-0.1   1.2/ 1.7     1       None    
 08/07 AM   9.8/10.3   0.2/ 0.8   1.0/ 1.5     1       None

Gloucester Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.0 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/04 AM  11.3/11.8   1.8/ 2.2   2.0/ 2.5   8-10     Minor    
 06/05 PM  10.8/11.3   1.3/ 1.8   1.7/ 2.2    7-8      None    
 07/05 AM  11.3/11.8   1.8/ 2.2   1.8/ 2.2    5-6     Minor    
 07/06 PM  10.7/11.2   1.2/ 1.7   1.8/ 2.2    4-5      None    
 08/06 AM  11.5/12.0   2.0/ 2.5   1.7/ 2.2     3      Minor

Scituate MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.5 ft, Major 15.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/04 AM  11.0/11.5   1.3/ 1.8   1.6/ 2.0    7-9      None    
 06/05 PM  10.9/11.4   1.2/ 1.7   1.8/ 2.2    6-8      None    
 07/05 AM  11.6/12.1   1.9/ 2.3   1.9/ 2.3    5-6     Minor    
 07/06 PM  11.0/11.5   1.3/ 1.8   2.1/ 2.6    4-5      None    
 08/06 AM  11.8/12.3   2.1/ 2.6   1.9/ 2.3    3-4     Minor

Chatham - South side
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 10.5 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 4.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

Wings Neck
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.5 ft, Moderate 9.0 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.1 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 7.1 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/01 AM   6.0/ 6.5   1.6/ 2.0   2.0/ 2.5    1-2      None    
 06/02 PM   5.6/ 6.1   1.2/ 1.7   2.0/ 2.5     1       None    
 07/02 AM   6.2/ 6.7   1.8/ 2.2   2.0/ 2.5     1      Minor    
 07/02 PM   5.5/ 6.0   1.1/ 1.6   2.1/ 2.6     1       None    
 08/03 AM   6.2/ 6.7   1.8/ 2.2   1.9/ 2.3     1      Minor    
 08/03 PM   5.6/ 6.1   1.2/ 1.7   2.2/ 2.7     1       None

Provincetown Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.9 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/04 AM  12.0/12.5   1.9/ 2.3   2.0/ 2.5    3-4      None    
 06/05 PM  11.8/12.3   1.7/ 2.2   2.0/ 2.5    3-4      None    
 07/05 AM  12.1/12.6   2.0/ 2.5   1.9/ 2.3    2-3      None    
 07/06 PM  11.6/12.1   1.5/ 2.0   2.1/ 2.6     4       None    
 08/06 AM  12.3/12.8   2.2/ 2.7   1.9/ 2.3     3       None

Buzzards Bay at Woods Hole
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 7.0 ft, Major 8.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/01 AM   4.0/ 4.5   2.0/ 2.5   1.8/ 2.2     2       None    
 06/01 PM   4.0/ 4.5   2.0/ 2.5   2.0/ 2.5    1-2      None    
 07/02 AM   4.2/ 4.7   2.2/ 2.7   2.0/ 2.5     1       None    
 07/02 PM   4.0/ 4.5   2.1/ 2.6   2.2/ 2.7     1       None    
 08/03 AM   4.5/ 5.0   2.5/ 3.0   2.1/ 2.6     1       None    
 08/03 PM   4.0/ 4.5   2.0/ 2.5   2.2/ 2.7     1       None

Dennis - Sesuit Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.5 ft, Major 16.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 4.0 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/05 AM  12.1/12.6   1.6/ 2.0   2.0/ 2.5    2-3      None    
 06/05 PM  11.9/12.4   1.4/ 1.9   2.0/ 2.5    2-3      None    
 07/05 AM  12.5/13.0   2.0/ 2.5   2.1/ 2.6     2       None    
 07/06 PM  12.1/12.6   1.6/ 2.0   2.5/ 3.0     3       None    
 08/06 AM  13.0/13.5   2.5/ 3.0   2.2/ 2.7     2      Minor

Chatham MA - East Coast
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 11.5 ft, Major 13.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/05 AM   6.7/ 7.2  -1.1/-0.6   1.9/ 2.3    7-8      None    
 06/06 PM   6.5/ 7.0  -1.3/-0.8   1.8/ 2.2    6-7      None    
 07/06 AM   6.8/ 7.3  -1.0/-0.5   1.8/ 2.2    5-6      None    
 07/06 PM   6.2/ 6.7  -1.6/-1.1   1.8/ 2.2     5       None    
 08/07 AM   6.7/ 7.2  -1.1/-0.6   1.5/ 2.0     4       None

Sandwich Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 06/04 AM  10.6/11.1   0.2/ 0.8   2.0/ 2.5     4       None    
 06/05 PM  10.4/10.9   0.1/ 0.6   2.0/ 2.5    3-4      None    
 07/05 AM  10.8/11.3   0.5/ 1.0   1.9/ 2.3     3       None    
 07/06 PM  10.3/10.8   0.0/ 0.5   2.1/ 2.6     3       None    
 08/06 AM  11.2/11.7   0.9/ 1.4   2.0/ 2.5    2-3      None

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
420 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure south of Nova Scotia remains nearly stationary
through Wednesday. This will lead to scattered rain and snow
showers, mainly over Eastern Massachusetts and plenty of clouds
inland. Dry weather and partial sunshine returns Wednesday and
especially Thursday. A coastal low pressure system is forecast to
come close to southern New England Friday night into Saturday, but
latest trends suggest the storm will pass out to sea. However, it is
still a bit early to rule out any impacts. A second coastal
storm may approach early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

415 PM Update...

Light snow/flurries continue fly across much of Eastern MA into RI
and even the Worcester Hills. Farther southeast across Cape Cod and
the Islands, boundary layer temps warm enough to support mainly rain
with snow mixing in at times (38 degs and snow at HYA). Farther west
into CT and Western MA, other than few scattered flurries mainly dry
weather prevails.

The culprit for the precip is vertically stacked/occluded low south
of Nova Scotia, circulating warm air aloft /TROWAL/ westward into
Eastern New England. Also the wind flow aloft between mid/upper
level low over NYS and the offshore low, has setup a deformation
zone across Eastern MA. This mid level convergence was enhancing the
precip shield over Eastern MA and just offshore. Although snow
production is not ideal with bulk of lift below the -12C to -18C
DGZ. Thus lack of dendrites suggest small/sand-like snowflakes. Also
with temps at or just above freezing snow will struggle to stick on
paved surfaces. This combined with snow intensity mostly light to
only flurries at times, not expecting much if any impact with roads,
especially highways remaining wet. Any snow accumulations will be
limited to a coating to perhaps up to an inch on non paved surfaces
across Eastern MA. Less of an issue Cape Cod and the Islands given
marginal temps. Watching an enhanced precip band just coming onshore
to Cape Ann and outer Cape Cod. This appears to be where the leading
edge of warmer air aloft and deformation axis overlap and working in
concert to enhance precip field. This may yield a brief burst of
light to moderate snow thru 5-6 pm. Again, with marginal temps not
expecting much of an impact.

Precip tapers off after midnight as mid level dry air advects across
the region. Seasonably cool tonight with lows in the 20s second half
of the night, 30-35 Cape Cod and the Islands. Although gusty north
winds will make it feel colder for the Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

415 pm update...

Wednesday...

Column begins to dry so expecting some partial sunshine. However
across Cape Cod and the Islands, 980 mb low south of Nova Scotia
will generate a gusty cold northerly wind over the relatively warm
ocean waters should yield lots of ocean effect strato-cu clouds and
possibly scattered flurries/sprinkles. Chilly north wind especially
across Cape and Islands with gusts up to 25 mph. Thus highs 35-40
Wed will feel cooler.

Wednesday night...

Dry weather as ocean low exits farther out to sea. Although
cold/brisk NNE winds continue. Seasonably cold with lows in the 20s
but will feel colder given gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

415 pm update...

Highlights...

* Dry with slightly above normal temperatures through Fri

* Guidance favors a miss/glancing blow with a low pressure to
  our south Fri night into Sat, but it is too early rule
  anything out

* A second coastal low pressure may impact our region early next
  week

Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern across the past
several model runs. Confidence continued to grow the main storm
track will likely remain to our south into early next week, despite
a mid level cold pool lingering over New England or southeast Canada.
With a general north to northwest flow, temperatures are expected to
be near normal for early January.

Dry weather remains in place Thursday and Friday. A glancing impact
from a low pressure to our south may bring a period of light snow or
rain to portions of southeast MA late Friday night into Saturday.
This low pressure should move into the Maritimes by Sunday morning.
Another low pressure may impact our region towards Tuesday, but is
more likely to remain mostly offshore. Since this system is still a
week away, not ready to completely dismiss it at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update...

Thru 00z...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing.

Mainly MVFR with bands of very light snow across Northeast MA.
With temps above freezing any minor snow accumulations would be
confined to non paved surfaces. Very light rain bands over
Southeast MA in MVFR/IFR. Gusty NNE winds here up to 25 kt at
times. Elsewhere, lighter winds and from the north.

After 00z...

Ceilings start MVFR but improve to VFR overnight across the
interior...MVFR ceilings linger a bit longer at coastal
terminals. North- northwest wind, with 15-20 kt along the
eastern MA coast.

Wednesday...

MVFR improving to VFR for interior terminals by 15z and the Cape
terminals by 21z. Winds turning northwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt near the coast.

Wed night...

VFR and dry weather, except MVFR possible Cape Cod and the
Islands. Gusty NNW winds across Cape Cod and the Islands,
lighter winds elsewhere.

KBOS TAF...MVFR in periods of light snow thru this evening, then
slowly improving conditions thereafter.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

415 pm update...

Tonight, Wednesday & Wed night...nearly stationary low south of Nova
Scotia deepens to about 980 mb Wed, then begins to move farther out
to sea. This low will continue to send easterly swells of 10-15 ft
into the eastern MA waters along with periods of light rain and snow
reducing vsby at times. Slowly improving conditions Wed night as the
low moves farther out to sea.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight
chance of snow.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

415 pm update...

* Coastal Flood Advisory for Nantucket; Coastal Flood Statements
  for MA South Shore and the Cape for this afternoon's high
  tide.

Strong low pressure south of Nova Scotia continues to send large
east swells toward the Eastern MA coastline. This combined with NNE
winds, storm surge values of 1.5 ft to 2.0 ft will result in minor
coastal flooding along the Eastern MA coastline, mainly south of
Boston, including Plymouth county, Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highest
confidence is across Nantucket, with lower confidence across
Plymouth county and Cape Cod. Given astro tides remain somewhat
high, combined with large easterly swells persisting, high tide
early Wed morning may also experience minor coastal flooding.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-232-
     235-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/Nocera
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Nocera

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
527 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-026-RIZ001-003-062230-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-
527 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts and northern
Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-015-016-019>023-RIZ002-004>008-062230-
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-Block Island RI-
527 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, northern
Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Astronomical tides will be rising late this week. This could lead to
pockets of minor coastal flooding during the times of high tides
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ024-062230-
Nantucket MA-
527 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Astronomical tides will be rising late this week. This could lead to
pockets of minor coastal flooding during the times of high tides
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-062230-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
527 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston