Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0321 PM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021/

Tonight through Thursday.

A large cut-off upper low that has been parked near the AR-LA-TX
area has been tracking slowly northward today. Drier air aloft on
the southern side of the upper low has pushed into areas south of
I-20. With drier and colder air aloft moving into Central Alabama,
there is a chance for downbursts associated with any storm that
can develop stronger updrafts. Also, there is an area of enhanced
low level shear over northeast Alabama, so an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out through the evening hours.

The dry slot has suppressed convection south of I-20 this
afternoon. Models do show convection increasing across areas south
of I-20 and east of I-65 this evening and kept high pops for this
area. With the possibility of heavier showers lingering across
east Alabama overnight, extended the Flash Flood Watch thru 7 AM
Thursday for areas along and east of I-65. Canceled the Flash
Flood Watch for the western counties.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0321 PM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021/

Thursday night through Tuesday.

No changes made to the extended forecast. We finally get into a
more typical October dry pattern with no rain in the forecast for
the period Saturday through Tuesday.

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021/

Thursday night through Tuesday.

An upper-level trough axis and mid-level dry slot will swing
through Thursday night and Friday, resulting in a drying trend.
Any lingering showers should be confined to our far eastern
counties through Friday morning, and the entire forecast area
should be dry by Friday night.

Height rises and dry conditions are expected over the weekend as
the upper-level trough moves toward the East Coast and a ridge
shifts eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Model spread
increases for Monday and Tuesday, but generally speaking,
significant moisture recovery ahead of any potential weather
system appears unlikely. Our forecast remains dry for now.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Widespread low end VFR to upper MVFR CIGs and BKN cloud cover
were noted on recent VIS sat imagery. Additionally, coverage of
SCT SHRA has increased across the FA in the last few hours,
however occurrence of TS has been minimal. Have kept mentions of
SHRA at most terminals w/ addition of VCTS for ocsnl thunder
chances. SHRA is expected to taper off following 00Z Wed night and
CIGs should deteriorate to IFR levels b/w 00Z-06Z Wed night at
most locations w/ some patchy BR developing after the conclusion
of precip. Condns are anticipated to begin improving Thurs
morning.

/232/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Periods of heavy rain possible overnight for areas along and east
of I-65. Drier air aloft will overspread Central Alabama tonight
and Thursday, and push the deeper moisture into Georgia. On
Thursday a majority of the rain will be east of I-65. The rain
will finally exit east Alabama Thursday evening. Southeast winds
3-5 mph tonight will become south-southwest 3-5 mph on Thursday.
Low level humidity values will remain elevated thru Thursday, but
drier air will work into the area by Friday with minimum RH
values falling to 55-65 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  79  63  80  60 /  80  50  20  20   0
Anniston    67  79  64  81  62 /  80  60  30  20   0
Birmingham  66  79  63  81  63 /  70  30  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  66  81  64  83  63 /  30  10  10   0   0
Calera      67  80  64  81  63 /  60  30  20  10   0
Auburn      66  79  65  80  63 /  70  60  40  20   0
Montgomery  68  81  65  84  63 /  70  40  20  10   0
Troy        68  82  66  83  63 /  70  50  30  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Jefferson...Lee...Lowndes...
Macon...Montgomery...Perry...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tallapoosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
303 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-072315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
303 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall are possible across portions of Central
Alabama. This could lead to flash flooding of low lying or poor
drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for a eastern half
of the area.

Minor flooding is occurring along portions of the Chattahoochee
River. Some locations in Lee, Chambers and Russell Counties may be
affected. Please see the latest river statements from the National
Weather Service in Atlanta for more details.

Thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and
brief tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is in effect for thew northeastern
quadrant of the area.

Please see the graphic for specific locations under these threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional heavy rainfall is possible east of Interstate 65 on Thursday.
This could lead to flash flooding of low lying or poor drainage
areas. Rain chances decrease significantly on Thursday night ending
any threat.

Minor flooding may continue into Thursday along portions of the
Chattahoochee River. Some locations in Lee, Chambers and Russell
Counties may be affected. Please see the latest river statements from
the National Weather Service in Atlanta for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Thursday.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>