Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0258 AM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021/

Through Thursday.

We still have a touch of wrap around moisture associated with the
back-edge of Ida. Mainly looking at some low clouds and perhaps some
light drizzle for Areas along and east of Anniston. Broad troughing
persists over the Eastern Tennessee Valley, with mid-Level ridging
forecast to amplify over the Southern and Central Plains. This will
allow a shortwave to slide southward today into the region.
With the approaching shortwave aloft and associated cold front at
the surface, continued the trend of scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon and extended it until 10 pm. With drier air
moving in aloft, will need to monitor for stronger storms with the
peak heating of the day. High temperatures will range from the lower
80s north and northeast to readings near 90 southwest. The shortwave
should exit by midnight and give way to clearing skies.

As we move into Thursday, the drier airmass will finally filter into
the region and rain chances should be to our south. There is a
slight chance that portions of Pike and Barbour counties may have
small chance at a shower or storm in the afternoon, but right now
chances remain below 20 percent and will not include at this time.
Highs will be in the 80s.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0258 AM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021/

Friday through Tuesday.

Mild conditions expected across Central AL as we reach the end of
the week and head into the holiday weekend. Ridging builds in across
the Southern CONUS as a drier air mass advects into the region.
Low temperatures Friday morning will be in the low to mid 60s for
most of Central AL with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The ridge begins to flatten across the Southeast late Saturday as a
trough digs through the Upper Midwest. By Sunday morning, the trough
is across much of the East Coast, setting up more of northwesterly
flow pattern for our area, which will continue through early next
week. Model guidance suggests at least a couple of shortwaves
dipping through this trough that could lead to increased
rain/thunderstorm chances with the first pushing in on Sunday and
the second either Tuesday night or early Wednesday. For now, I've
trended rain/thunderstorm chances up for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
given there's uncertainty in the timing of any specific shortwave
impulse. We likely won't see rain every day, but there could be a
couple of waves push through.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Overall clearing of the skies did result in some patchy fog/low
clouds. This should dissipate by 14z. Cold front and shortwave
works through this afternoon, after 18z, so included prob30 for
TSRA at all sites now that confidence has increased that ANB and
ASN may see scattered showers and storms. Started with VCTS after
18z and will need to adjust to tempo tsra once the activity
becomes more apparent. Most of the activity is done in the north
by 3z and the south by 6z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorms expected today as a frontal boundary moves
into the area. Westerly winds shift more northerly through the
day. Drier weather builds in Thursday through Saturday as a drier
air mass builds into the region. Min RHs will remain around the
50% range through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  63  85  62  87 /  30  20   0   0   0
Anniston    85  64  86  64  88 /  30  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  64  85  64  87 /  50  20  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  66  85  64  87 /  50  40  10   0   0
Calera      86  65  86  65  88 /  50  30  10   0   0
Auburn      86  66  86  67  87 /  30  40  10   0  10
Montgomery  89  68  90  67  90 /  50  50  10   0  10
Troy        89  68  88  67  90 /  50  50  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
305 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-021115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
305 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Minor flooding is forecast along portions of the Tombigbee and
Sucarnoochee Rivers today. Please see the latest flood statements
for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Minor flooding is forecast along portions of the Tombigbee and
Sucarnoochee Rivers through the end of the week. Please see the
latest flood statements for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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