Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
851 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0826 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021/

Very slow moving thunderstorms were lingering in two areas this
evening. An easterly wave over east Alabama was the most active
area of storms, generally from Troy to Dadeville to Heflin. The
area was propagating westward, but has since stalled as its
encounters an upper trof over northwest Alabama. Ongoing
convection along and north of I-20 was developing in an area
ahead of a upper level trof moving in from the northwest. Earlier
thinking was that storms would be done by 10 pm, but will need to
extend until midnight.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0305 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021/

The main issues in the long term continue to hinge on what the
remnants of "Fred" do. We can be pretty sure that rain chances
will increase significantly in the Monday night to Tuesday night
time frame, as "Fred" or its remnants move across the state.
Obviously, a fully redeveloped "Fred" would bring at least a
small threat of gusty winds, as well as a tornado risk. Will play
the wait and see game.

Anything left of "Fred" should be beyond our area perhaps by
Wednesday, or certainly by Thursday. That will return our area to
a more climatologically typical air mass regime, with fairly high
diurnally driven POPs.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Isolated showers/tstms will continue across Central Alabama thru
02z with highest tstm chances at KMGM. Outside convective areas,
VFR conds will prevail. Sct to numerous tstms will develop after
17z with best coverage along an inverted low level trof. The trof
will be positioned near the I-20 corridor Sunday afternoon.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A hot and humid weather pattern featuring daily afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will continue through Monday with RH values
remaining above 50 percent. Winds should remain light through
Sunday with an increase for Monday and Tuesday. Additional
rainfall is possible from tropical system Fred on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  87  69  87  70 /  40  80  70  60  40
Anniston    72  88  71  86  72 /  40  70  60  60  40
Birmingham  73  89  71  87  72 /  40  70  60  60  40
Tuscaloosa  74  90  72  87  72 /  40  70  60  50  30
Calera      73  88  72  86  72 /  40  70  60  50  40
Auburn      72  87  71  84  71 /  40  50  40  50  60
Montgomery  73  90  72  88  72 /  40  50  40  50  50
Troy        72  89  71  86  72 /  30  50  30  60  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
458 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-160100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
458 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A tropical system will move northward across Central Alabama on
Tuesday. There is a low confidence threat for wind gusts of 30 to 35
mph and localized flooding across southern portions of Central
Alabama.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
945 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ALZ025-150315-
Shelby AL-
945 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Shelby
County through 1015 PM CDT...

At 945 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indian Springs Village, or near Hoover. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hoover, Pelham, Indian Springs Village, Oak Mountain Amphitheater,
Meadowbrook, Oak Mountain State Park and Hoover Veterans Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Birmingham.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 8667 3333 8667 3330 8675 3336 8682
      3337 8680 3337 8678 3339 8678 3339 8676
      3340 8675 3342 8675 3342 8674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 059DEG 1KT 3336 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore