Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/

Through Friday.

We're experiencing a more traditional summer day with weak south-
southwesterly flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge
centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. There's been little change
in the moisture and thermodynamic profiles, but a slight moistening
trend will carry over into tomorrow. Showers and storms this
afternoon will be widely scattered and slow moving with greatest
coverage south of I-20, diminishing this evening. There is some risk
of gusty sub-severe winds due to the presence of dry mid-level air,
but like yesterday, deep, robust convection will be sparse. Current
temperatures are already quite warm and should peak in the lower 90s
across the area both today and tomorrow with mild overnight temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Patchy fog may redevelop in the morning, especially near river
valleys and areas that receive rainfall today. The increase in
moisture could yield greater areal coverage of showers and storms
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the south as the coastal sea
breeze moves towards the HWY 80 corridor.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0321 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/

Friday night through Wednesday.

The upper level ridge, extending westward across Florida and into
southeast Alabama, hangs on through Saturday. Although,
weaknesses within the ridge and an approaching trough from the
northwest will help to enhance rain chances during the day. By
Sunday, broad troughing will be established over the Tennessee
Valley, and expect widespread rain coverage across the northern
portion of the forecast area.

A short wave within the trough will help push the trough
southward, as it becomes more of a shear axis. This axis shifts
slowly southward through early next week. This added lift combined
with low level convergence and high moisture will result in increased
rain chances through the forecast period. Although wet each day,
high temperatures will remain in the 80s during the day.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Isolated to widely scattered development of showers and storms will
continue through the afternoon. Weak flow will limit the movement of
this activity as mesoscale boundary interactions become the primary
focus for expanding development. VFR flight conditions will
prevail at most sites for a majority of this period with any
reductions in criteria a result of a passing shower or
thunderstorm. Greatest coverage will be across the south where
moisture quality is highest. Therefore, included a TEMPO for TSRA
at TOI from 21-00Z. Coverage greatly diminishes this evening, and
most of the night will be calm. Some patchy fog may develop early
tomorrow morning, but did not include in the TAFs at the time.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Localized, mainly
in river valleys, fog will be possible each morning around
sunrise. Increased rain chances expected next week as an upper
level system slowly moves through the area. The humid airmass
will result in high relative humidity values each day, with
generally light southerly to southwesterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  91  70  90  70 /  10  50  20  50  50
Anniston    71  90  72  89  72 /  20  50  20  50  40
Birmingham  73  91  72  91  72 /  20  50  20  50  40
Tuscaloosa  72  91  72  90  72 /  20  40  20  50  40
Calera      72  90  72  88  72 /  20  50  10  40  30
Auburn      71  89  72  89  72 /  20  50  10  30  20
Montgomery  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  50  10  40  10
Troy        71  93  72  91  72 /  30  50  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
409 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-161215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
409 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
214 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ049-050-151945-
Pike AL-Barbour AL-
214 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clio, moving north at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clio, Louisville, Tyler Crossroads, Doster, Blue Springs State Park,
Boot Hill, Monticello and Josie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8547 3162 8576 3186 8582 3189 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 165DEG 6KT 3171 8561

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
445 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ048-152215-
Russell AL-
445 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Seale, or 16 miles southwest of Cusseta. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seale, Fort Mitchell Activity Center and Uchee Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 8491 3225 8492 3224 8491 3222 8493
      3222 8497 3221 8498 3220 8496 3218 8501
      3213 8506 3209 8505 3207 8505 3208 8517
      3230 8525 3232 8499 3230 8494 3226 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 074DEG 1KT 3221 8503

25/Owen