Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Midday Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/

Today through Tuesday.

Features of Interest.

The forecast area is situated between a closed low over Northeast
Missouri and an upper low off the Eastern Coast of Florida. In the
lower levels, ridging persists off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
near Bermuda. The surface high well to the east continues to
support south to southwest winds in the lower levels. A surface
low was analyzed over Southwest Illinois with a stationary cold
front extending from the low south into the Mid South region.

Hazard Assessment.

The wet microburst risk today is low. A few of the heavier storms
today could produce gusty winds in addition to frequent lightning
and torrential downpours.

Near Term.

We are between two waves of convection with the first round across
much of our eastern counties. These showers with some
thunderstorms will continue to move northeast into Georgia through
mid afternoon.

Another wave of showers and thunderstorms continues to move int
our southwest counties and expect this activity to continue moving
to the northeast, affecting our central counties again over the
next few hours.

Our southeast counties will experience increasing chances of
showers and storms over the next few hours as a diffuse north to
south boundary extends from western Lee County south to west of
Dothan. Showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Florida
Panhandle and portions of Southeast Alabama will move northeast
into our southeast counties though mid afternoon.

Today.

Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon with the lower chances northwest. Highs will range from
the lower 80s northwest to near 90 southeast. Winds will be out of
the south 6-12 mph.

Tonight.

Expect continued showers with a few thunderstorms this evening
with the activity gradually decreasing overnight. Lows will range
from the upper 60s north to around 70 south. Wind will remain out
of the south 4-8 mph.

Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm activity will again develop on
Tuesday with the best chances during the afternoon hours. Highs
will range from the lower 80s northwest to around 90 south. Winds
will be out of the south 5-10 mph.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0344 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/

Wednesday through Sunday.

A deep-layer ridge will strengthen over the region on Wednesday
causing a reduction in the amount of diurnally-driven thunderstorm
activity, but isolated to scattered activity is still expected.
Weak height falls are noted for Thursday as a trough approaches
the Mississippi River. PWAT values increasing with southerly flow,
should result in greater coverage of afternoon showers and
storms. This is expected to continue into Friday as the upper-level
trough moves across the Ohio Valley. With a broad trough over
persisting across most of the eastern CONUS, enhanced rain chances
could continue over our region through the weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

The first wave of showers with a few thunderstorms is quickly
moving east of our northern airfields. We are watching another
wave of showers and thunderstorms move into our southwest counties
and this activity is expected to affect TCL/BHM/EET/MGM in the
early to mid afternoon hours, followed by affecting ASN/ANB later
this afternoon. TOI may be affected by developing storms to the
south in the next hour followed by impacts expected from
the activity moving into the area from the southwest later this
afternoon. Low-level winds will remain out of the south 6-12 kts
with higher gusts possible in/near convection. IFR conditions
primarily expected in and around convection.

Tonight, residual showers with a few storms are expected, though
chances for TS become too low to include at most sites overnight.
Low CIG's are the primary concern with most sites progged to fall
into IFR category overnight. Winds will remain from the south 4-8
kts.

Expect more showers and storms developing as we head into the day
Tuesday. CIG heights should improve by late morning before
convection more widely just beyond this cycle period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected the next
several days mainly in the afternoon and evening. The humid
airmass will result in high relative humidity values each day,
with generally light southerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  87  68  88  69 /  50  60  40  40  10
Anniston    68  88  70  88  71 /  60  60  30  40  10
Birmingham  68  87  70  88  71 /  50  60  30  30  10
Tuscaloosa  69  87  71  89  72 /  50  60  30  30  10
Calera      68  87  70  88  72 /  60  60  30  30  10
Auburn      69  88  70  88  72 /  60  60  20  40  20
Montgomery  70  90  72  92  72 /  60  60  20  40  10
Troy        70  90  71  91  72 /  50  50  20  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
354 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
354 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
202 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ050-121930-
Barbour AL-
202 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ariton, or 7 miles southwest of Clio, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clio, Louisville and Doster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8573 3165 8572 3169 8572 3171 8571
      3174 8570 3176 8567 3177 8567 3179 8566
      3180 8567 3183 8567 3182 8548 3162 8557
      3162 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 190DEG 25KT 3161 8568

89^GSatterwhite