Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
552 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.UPDATE...
Morning Update and 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0536 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

Through Monday Night.

With ample instability ahead of the approaching cold front and
strong forcing aloft, thunderstorms will continue to be possible,
with the strongest activity just to our north. With that said,
there will be scattered pockets of severe winds and isolated
pockets of hail possible across all of Central Alabama this
morning in the northwest to mid afternoon in the southeast.

Wind profiles have begun to veer and are quickly losing the
support for tornadoes. There still is a non zero threat down to
I-85 but the biggest threats will be winds and hail, so will shift
the HWO to that for the rest of the day.

After Noon, strong surface destabilization is expected across the
south and southeast, which will result in storm intensification
with time as we proceed through the afternoon. The concern for
damaging winds and large hail will grow with time across the
southeast due to the further increasing instability through the
day on Sunday. While a brief tornado southeast can not be fully
ruled out, the potential is low compared to across the northwest
and northern counties this morning. As the cold front moves
through, a few lingering showers are expected, but the atmosphere
will stabilize quickly as cold air advection ensues.

Any remaining showers should be exiting the southeast counties
early tonight. Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area
by Monday morning with lows in the mid 30s north to 40s elsewhere.
Did add in patchy frost across the far northern counties. Not sure
if the winds will die completely off but the more sheltered
locations should at least see some patchy frost. Not enough
coverage to issue a Frost Advisory, but worth watching. Highs on
Monday will be pleasant with readings in the 60s. A warm front
will lift northward Monday night with a chance of showers across
the southern counties.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0211 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

With the advancing warm front, look for mostly cloudy skies on
Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, with better
chances of rain south of I-20. Increasing rain chances Tuesday
night across north Alabama as low level southerly flow increases
ahead of an approaching short wave. Looks like the best coverage
here will be in the north. Behind it, a strong cold front will
push through Central Alabama on Wednesday producing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. There is small window across the
southern counties Wednesday afternoon when surface based
instability may be high enough for a low end severe threat, with
wind and hail the biggest concerns. SPC has issued a day 3
marginal just to our west, so confidence is increasing that we
will see a chance on Wednesday. Will go ahead and include a low
end confidence for severe storms on Wednesday in the HWO. A much
colder air mass will overspread the area Thursday and Friday. In
fact we could see some upper 20s in the north on Friday morning.
A Freeze Watch may be issued in the next few days if the trend
continues.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate for the north as TSRA
moves through the sites ahead of and along a front. Gusty winds
will be possible outside of storms. A few storms could be strong
to severe with the frontal passage. Threat time for storms will be
best in the morning for TCL/BHM, morning to midday for
EET/ASN/ANB and midday to afternoon for MGM/TOI. May return to VFR
conditions again by 18z TCL to 23z TOI.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A band of showers and thunderstorms will track southeast across
the area today. Some of the storms may be severe. Cooler with no
rain after 10 PM tonight through Monday. Increasing rain chances
Tuesday and Tuesday night as a warm front lifts northward. Showers
likely and a chance of storms on Wednesday. No fire weather
concerns due to moist ground fuels and high RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  36  66  42  71 / 100   0   0   0  30
Anniston    72  39  69  46  73 / 100   0   0  10  30
Birmingham  67  40  67  47  73 / 100   0   0  10  30
Tuscaloosa  69  40  68  46  73 /  90  10   0   0  40
Calera      68  40  67  48  73 / 100  10   0  10  40
Auburn      75  42  68  51  70 / 100  20   0  20  50
Montgomery  77  44  71  51  75 / 100  20   0  10  50
Troy        81  46  71  52  76 / 100  20   0  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
530 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-291330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
530 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms will continue to be possible through the afternoon
across portions of Central Alabama as a front slides southward.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats along with
localized flooding with any training that may develop. There could be
some increase in coverage of the stronger storms this afternoon in
the southeast through 4 PM.

Minor flooding will occur along portions of the Tombigbee, Cahaba,
Coosa, Locust Fork, and Black Warrior River Basins.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Tombigbee,
Cahaba, Coosa, Locust Fork, and Black Warrior River Basins through
this week.

A cold front will move through on Wednesday. At this time there is a
low end threat for strong winds and large hail with the passage of
the front.

A freeze is possible Friday morning for the northern half of Central
Alabama.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through this afternoon and again on Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
415 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ014-281000-
Winston AL-
415 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 500
AM CDT...

At 415 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Needmore, or near Haleyville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Brushy Lake, Needmore, Moreland, Inmanfield, Ashridge,
Weiss, Posey Field Airport, Upshaw, Pebble, Delmar, Sipsey River Rec
Area, Grayson and Bankhead National Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3423 8711 3413 8764 3431 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 246DEG 54KT 3426 8755

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
517 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ013>015-281100-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-Winston AL-
517 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER...SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON AND
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 516 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Eldridge to near Bankston to near Belk.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Carbon Hill, Berry, Parrish, Oakman,
Sipsey, Kansas, Eldridge, Curry, Gorgas Steam Plant, Smith Dam, Boley
Springs, Burnwell, Beloit, Quinton, Bankston and Smith Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8775 3391 8768 3407 8711 3399 8711
      3399 8715 3392 8708 3390 8710 3389 8701
      3384 8696 3380 8695 3377 8702 3366 8706
      3366 8709 3363 8710 3360 8720 3361 8763
      3358 8763 3357 8767 3356 8795 3359 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 259DEG 41KT 3386 8762 3372 8767 3362 8784

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GUIN                    33.97N 87.91W
03/28/2021                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES AND
            POWERLINES DOWN IN GUIN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
546 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ017-281115-
Blount AL-
546 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY UNTIL
615 AM CDT...

At 546 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Arab to near Holly Pond. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Strawberry and Brooksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8644 3419 8639 3416 8658 3419 8655
      3422 8655 3423 8652 3425 8652 3425 8650
      3426 8649 3426 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 254DEG 44KT 3433 8658 3416 8669

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ013-015-022-023-281145-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-Pickens AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
601 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER...NORTHWESTERN
TUSCALOOSA...EAST CENTRAL PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 600 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Boley Springs to near Gordo. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northport, Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Gordo, Carrollton,
Parrish, Coker, Oakman, Sipsey, Gorgas Steam Plant, Samantha, Lake
Lurleen State Park, Boley Springs, Burnwell, Beloit, Quinton, Binion
Creek Landing and Gorgas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8809 3365 8752 3384 8745 3391 8708
      3390 8710 3386 8696 3381 8695 3377 8702
      3366 8706 3366 8709 3365 8709 3360 8720
      3357 8720 3355 8719 3353 8727 3350 8726
      3349 8733 3346 8734 3342 8728 3322 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 270DEG 39KT 3362 8746 3330 8796

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
627 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

ALZ015-023-024-034-281230-
Walker AL-Bibb AL-Jefferson AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
627 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...CENTRAL
TUSCALOOSA...NORTHEASTERN BIBB AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM
CDT...

At 627 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gorgas Steam Plant to Northport. Movement
was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Bessemer, Homewood,
Northport, Mountain Brook, Trussville, Hueytown, Gardendale,
Irondale, Leeds, Moody, Fairfield, Fultondale, Holt, Center Point,
Pleasant Grove and Tarrant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8735 3365 8653 3356 8655 3355 8652
      3352 8652 3351 8657 3347 8661 3347 8667
      3342 8675 3337 8678 3336 8683 3333 8683
      3333 8688 3327 8695 3325 8703 3317 8703
      3316 8698 3313 8697 3312 8697 3320 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 262DEG 43KT 3360 8722 3326 8761

05