Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1106 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021/

Today through Tuesday.

A potent upper trough over the Central Plains will take on a more
negative tilt this afternoon and evening as it swings northeast
over the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley region. Expect the
area to remain in a broad upper trough pattern through Tuesday.
Toward the surface, a low was positioned near the Mouth of the
Mississippi River with the warm sector offshore. A trough was
analyzed from the surface low northeast across our southern and
eastern counties. To our northwest, strong and expansive high
pressure was analyzed over Minnesota.

Hazard Discussion.

Freezing rain remains the primary concern across our west and
northwest counties as precipitation continues to fall while the
arctic air begins to advance eastward this afternoon and evening.
The Ice Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 pm tonight for
Pickens, Fayette, Lamar, Marion and Winston Counties and this
aligns well with our expectations of this being the primary area
of concern.

Areas to the east under the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory retain some potential for precipitation to
freeze as the arctic air arrives, though thankfully the impacts
look to be much less compared to areas to the west.

A Wind Chill Advisory and Hard Freeze Warning remains in effect
tonight through tomorrow morning due to the low temperatures
forecast across our northern and western counties.

Today.

Expect Precipitation to continue to move across the forecast area.
Impactful conditions are still expected across our western and
northwest counties where the arctic airmass will advect east into
these areas before the precipitation moves out of the area.
Temperatures will quickly fall across these areas through the
evening with icy conditions expected.

The rest of the forecast area can expect rain showers through much
of the afternoon followed by colder temperatures moving in from
the west through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Tonight.

Dry conditions are expected tonight with very cold temperatures.
Clouds will be on the decrease from southwest to northeast while
cold air advection will persist. The result will be lows tonight
ranging from the teens west to the lower 20s southeast.

Tuesday.

Decreasing clouds are forecast Tuesday though the arctic airmass
persists. Highs will struggle to reach freezing generally along
and southeast of a line from Meridian to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham
to Gadsden. Areas northwest of this line will likely remain below
freezing with lingering impacts from the ice accumulation from
last night into the afternoon today. Highs will range from the mid
20s northwest to the mid 40s southeast.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0341 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021/

Tuesday night through Thursday.

The pattern remains progressive for the first part of the long term.
As the system exits to our east, we will see clearing skies for much
of the area early, but cold temperatures once again. Look for teens
in the northwest with 20s elsewhere. We may see some cold air
stratus clouds develop across the northwest overnight, so
temperatures may not drop as low as they could. The next shortwave
will move into the area Wednesday afternoon and slowly push eastward
Thursday morning. This is where things get interesting as we could
potentially see severe weather in the south and wintry weather in
the northwest. Admittedly things will be borderline in the
northwest, but model consensus is for the cold airmass to still be
in place across the northwest as the precip moves in. So we could
start out with rain in the northwest, then a mix of rain/snow after
sunset through the overnight hours. At the same time the warm
airmass from the south will work into the area. The consensus of the
models take the low 60 dewpoints into Anniston by daybreak Thursday,
while never getting out of the 30s in the NW. We could potentially
see another round of snow on the backside of the system overnight
Thursday night into Friday morning, but that would be light and
generally flurries.

Plan on introducing winter weather in the late Wednesday night
period for the HWO and continue the severe threat that was
introduced yesterday for Thursday morning. Looks like the best time
frame for severe weather would be after 3 am in the SW to Noon in
the SE. Lots more to discuss here, but will get past our short term
concerns first.

Friday through Sunday.

Look for another cold day on Friday as CAA dominates the day, but
precipitation should have ended before daybreak. Looks like we may
actually warm up for the weekend along with some of that sunshine
that has been hard to come by. Another front is expected Sunday
night into next Monday. Precipitation appears limited right now, but
will need to monitor for trends over the next few days.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Overcast conditions with showers will continue to impact all sites
for the rest of the daytime hours. Expect showers to end from
southwest to northeast with liquid precipitation the dominant type
at all terminals.

Look for improving CIG's overnight into early Tuesday while winds
will shift to the west and gust 10-20 kts as the arctic front
moves east across the area late this afternoon through the evening
hours.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold and moist air mass will remain over central Alabama through
tonight. Low clouds will persist through Tuesday morning, with a
significant rainfall through the evening. Surface temperatures will
be below freezing for areas west Alabama today and tonight,
resulting in significant accumulations of freezing rain. Ice
accumulations will likely approach one-third to one-half an inch for
the far northwestern counties of Alabama before the system is
done. Temperatures will be in the single digits and low teens in
the west overnight tonight through Tuesday morning. Another front
will move in Wednesday night/Thursday morning along with showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  18  33  22  51 /  90  30   0   0  30
Anniston    50  19  36  24  55 / 100  30   0   0  30
Birmingham  47  15  32  23  51 /  90  10   0   0  30
Tuscaloosa  39  13  32  22  49 / 100  10   0   0  40
Calera      48  16  34  24  52 /  90  10   0   0  30
Auburn      53  22  39  28  54 / 100  20   0   0  30
Montgomery  54  20  39  27  56 /  80  10   0   0  40
Troy        58  19  41  28  57 /  60  10   0   0  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Tuesday
for the following counties: Autauga...Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...
Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lamar...Lowndes...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following counties: Greene...Hale...Marengo...Sumter...
Tuscaloosa...Walker.

Ice Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Winston.

Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday
for the following counties: Fayette...Greene...Lamar...Marion...
Pickens...Sumter...Winston.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST
this evening for the following counties: Bibb...Blount...
Jefferson...Perry.

&&

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