Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
246 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
showers and storms.

Currently, upper level low over the western Dakotas with the
associated sfc low/trough now over central South Dakota. Band of
moderate to heavy rain from this morning has lifting into northern
ND this afternoon, with the next round of showers and storms
developing to our south and lifting north.

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will develop and lift
northward across western and central North Dakota over the next
several hours, with precipitation chances ending across the west
later this evening as the upper low moves east and stalls over
eastern North Dakota. Wrap around showers will continue over
central and eastern areas of the state through Sunday morning,
eventually dissipating Sunday afternoon.

SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather late this
afternoon into the evening from far south central ND to across
the southern James River Valley. This is where the environment may
become supportive of a couple strong to marginally severe storms
given sufficient instability and decent shear. The main risk with
the stronger storms would be hail potentially up to the size of
quarters. The southern James Valley is also where the heavier
storm total rainfall is projected, possibly as high as 3-4 inches
due to several rounds of t-storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

The passage of a large storm system highlights the extended
period.

A S/WV mid level ridge moves across the Northern Plains Sunday
night through Monday, as a long wave trough amplifies across the
western CONUS. As the trough digs southward, a deep upper level
low develops across the Desert Southwest Monday night/early
Tuesday, then ejects north/northeast into and through the region
later on Tuesday and through the day Wednesday.

WPC cluster analysis, ensemble means, and NBM all favor widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation across the Northern Plains later
in the day Tuesday and through Thursday morning. Still in
question is the exact timing and placement of precipitation
(differences remain amongst the GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble means).
Also still in question is precipitation type across the higher
terrain of western ND as colder air is wrapped into the system. At
this time it appears more of a rain/snow mix with perhaps some
light snow accumulations on grassy surfaces in the AM hours of Wed
and Thu, with guidance favoring my southwest. Strong winds will
also be a factor as the sfc low deepens and moves north/northeast
from central SD during the day Wednesday and through eastern ND
Wed night.

Flow aloft transitions to zonal for the end of the work week and
into the following weekend, favoring dry weather and seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to
overspread the state through the day. A few stronger storms will
be possible this afternoon, mainly across far south central and
into southeast ND. MVFR/IFR conditions will be present through the
majority of the period at most terminals (KXWA and KMOT the
exceptions), especially under any showers or storms. Periods of
LIFR conditions will be possible through early to mid afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

NDZ037-046>048-050-051-101945-
Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected
today. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe with heavy
rainfall and hail up to the size of quarters being the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>045-101945-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-
Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 /133 PM MDT Sat Oct 9 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected
today. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-002-009-101945-
Divide-Burke-Williams-
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
127 PM CDT SAT OCT 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MANDAN              46.77N 100.88W
10/09/2021  M1.03 INCH       MORTON             ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT FROM RETIRED NWS BISMARCK EMPLOYEE.

&&

NJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
527 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

NDZ051-092300-
Dickey ND-
527 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN DICKEY
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Ellendale, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Ludden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9853 4615 9862 4625 9801 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 252DEG 21KT 4596 9838

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
559 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

NDZ051-092315-
Dickey ND-
559 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN DICKEY
COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ludden, or 8
miles south of Oakes, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Oakes around 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 9812 4608 9840 4628 9810 4628 9801
      4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 215DEG 19KT 4602 9808

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HARGROVE