Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
356 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Look for cooler temperatures today with widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Two weather makers will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the region today. A cold front across
northwestern ND will slowly advance eastward today brining some
showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile an upper level disturbance
with a large plume of moisture looks to also move across central
and eastern portions today, bringing perhaps better chances for
showers and thunderstorms today. Neither disturbance looks to
have enough instability for any strong thunderstorms today.
Activity along the front looks to be scattered along and ahead of
it, with limited activity expected behind in northwestern ND.
Meanwhile activity with the upper level disturbance looks to be
more widespread. This upper level disturbance also holds an
abundant amount of monsoonal type moisture. The result could be
some locally heavy rainfall at times, especially in the southeast.
Highs today look to cool into the 60s and 70s, with light winds
eventually coming northerly.

Tonight, precipitation from these features looks to generally
diminish this evening across the east. Another approaching
disturbance could redevelop showers across the southwest later
tonight. Lows tonight may be quite cooler for some areas with 40s
and 50s possible for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Generally dry and seasonal conditions are expected for the Labor
Day weekend, and possibly continuing into next week.

Upper low well into Canada looks to swing a trough across the area
on Friday. This could produce some scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity, mainly across the south. With limited
instability, severe weather is generally not expected at this
time. Otherwise look for continued cooler temperature for Friday,
with perhaps a breezy at times west wind.

Labor Day weekend then sees weak to flat ridging across the area.
The result looks to be an overall dry and warming holiday
weekend. With the drying and warming conditions, some lower RH
values could return across the west at times. Breezy winds
Saturday and again Monday could also bring an increased fire
weather danger threat. Look for temperatures to warm into the 70s
and 80s for the weekend, which is near to slightly above normal
for this time of year.

Ridge looks to continue to build across the western US through at
least mid next week. A back door cold front may attempt to push
its way later Monday into Tuesday next week, perhaps slightly
cooling temperatures. This front could bring a few isolated
showers, although appears to be mainly dry at this time. Breezy
winds may also be found at times. Mid to late next week will then
see the ridge progress further eastward. This could bring more
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Period of mid to low clouds look to linger through tonight, with
perhaps some MVFR ceilings at times. And isolated to scattered
shower or thunderstorm is possible tonight, although confidence
remains low. Thursday morning into the afternoon will then see
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with continued
low cloud cover. Most sites could see MVFR to brief IFR conditions
as a result, except across the northwest where generally VFR
conditions are expected. Conditions look to improve from northwest
to southeast later in the day Thursday. By Thursday evening most
sites may return to VFR conditions, with rain generally ending.
Look for variable winds tonight becoming southeast across the
east, and northerly across the west. Most sites may then see
northerly breezes this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
323 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-030830-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
323 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 /223 AM MDT Thu Sep 2 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day today.
Severe weather is not expected at this time. Locally heavy rain is
also possible today, mainly in the southeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
532 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

NDZ009-010-017-021100-
McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Williams ND-
532 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
McKenzie, east central Williams and west central Mountrail Counties
through 600 AM CDT...

At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of 4 Bears Lodge, or 26 miles northeast of Watford City,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
McKenzie, east central Williams and west central Mountrail Counties,
including the following locations... White Earth Bay Recreation Area
and Charlson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Sakakawea, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4792 10288 4796 10303 4808 10301 4836 10270
      4836 10242 4809 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 239DEG 18KT 4804 10285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ANGLIN