Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

August 7, 2021Dickey County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Aug 7, 2021, 8:18 PM CDT for Dickey County, North Dakota. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2021, 8:18 PM CDT (01:18 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 40

County Dickey County, ND

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2053 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 4.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 7, 6:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 6:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

New convection has initiated on the eastern and northern arcs of
ascent downstream of the long-lived, slow-moving MCV centered in
far south central ND as of 2315 UTC. The convective environment
is characterized by moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg, but poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km and effective-
layer shear on the order of 20 kt per recent VWP hodographs and
RAP-based objective analyses suggests the severe-storm risk will
continue to be minimized. This scenario was already well-handled
in the current forecast, with precipitation chances highlighted
along and east of the MCV through the evening, mainly along and
south of I-94 and along and east of ND Highway 6. Thus, while we
did refresh forecast fields through Sunday using the most recent
NBM cycles, little overall change was needed with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

An MCV continues churning very slowly along the ND/SD border near
the Missouri River. Not a lot of thunder remains with the system
as of now, although CAMs are fairly consistent in the idea that it
will redevelop as it moves further east this afternoon and the
environment becomes more unstable. Even with a bit more unstable
environment, more favorable wind shear is progged to remain
further south and east of this system. Thus, while strong
thunderstorms are possible and a storm or two could pulse to
severe levels near or over the James River Valley, severe weather
is generally not expected this afternoon. Cloud cover continues to
clear out behind this system with smoke still blocking out the
blue of the sky over most of the area. Conditions dry out for the
day Sunday with hot temperatures returning and highs reaching the
low to mid 90s for most of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Another trough begins to enter the area Sunday night with the best
precipitation chances during the day Monday, especially for the
northern third of North Dakota. By Tuesday afternoon, any
remaining remnants of the system will likely have moved out of the
area and the remainder of the extended period looks dry. High
temperatures on Monday range from the mid 70s in the northwest to
the low 90s in the southeast. Otherwise, high temperatures look
seasonable for this time of the year as northwest flow persists
over the region Tuesday through the remainder of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the 00 UTC TAF
cycle. However, localized MVFR to IFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms are possible this evening in south central ND and
the James River valley, mainly south of KBIS and KJMS to the ND
and SD state line. Moreover, MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility
in stratus and potentially fog could develop in the same areas
late tonight and early Sunday morning, and the probability for
impacts at KJMS has increased into the 50-60% category, so we
are including an MVFR ceiling at KJMS with the 00 UTC TAFs.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...CJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 6:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 7, 2:18 PM CDT, 6 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
218 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 N BELFIELD            46.99N 103.20W
08/07/2021  M1.50 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 6:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
642 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NDZ051-080015-
Dickey ND-
642 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Dickey
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elm Lake, or 8 miles southwest of Ellendale, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellendale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 9857 4594 9840 4594 9873
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 236DEG 18KT 4591 9864

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GALE

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 7:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 7, 7:40 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 7, 8:11 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 7, 8:18 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 7:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	37 min
Aug 7, 7:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	35 min
Aug 7, 8:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.