Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Some storm shave developed over the southwest, though recently a
new storm has developed near Hazen. The southwestern storms have
remained tame as lower instability is noted over that area, but as
you go east, instability increases until you reach near the
Highway 83 corridor. High-res models have been increasing
coverage some as we go through the evening and overnight over this
aforementioned area, but with how crummy they did earlier in the
day will have to wait and see a bit to see how this pans out. With
that said, have expanded the low storm chances further east as we
get into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Chances for thunderstorms increase this evening and then again
overnight tonight for portions of western and central North
Dakota. A few thunderstorms may become severe with quarter size
hail and 60 mph wind gusts possible. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible again late Saturday afternoon and
evening.

A building upper level ridge over a broad surface low, located
over eastern Montana, was evident on water vapor imagery this
afternoon with a series of weak impulses moving through the axis.
At the surface, dew points have climbed into the mid 60s across
central North Dakota, with a sharp drop-off in dew points near the
Montana border. Coinciding with the eastward progression of the
ridge, mid level lapse rates are steeping from west to east, with
7.5 C/km to near 8.5 C/km over the west. Moderate to strong
instability is developing this afternoon with the overlap of
richer boundary layer moisture and lapse rates aloft.

Despite rising mid level heights with the building ridge, good
agreement exists in the elimination of convective inhibition near
the surface low over western North Dakota as the boundary layer
mixes out this afternoon. Overall ascent is modest but
convergence and differential heating should be adequate for some
convective initiation. Effective bulk shear is on the weaker side
for organized convection, but should be enough to combine with
1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE to encourage a few potentially severe
thunderstorms. Quarter size hail and localized 60 mph wind gusts
will be possible with stronger thunderstorms.

Then overnight the focus for ascent shifts towards elevated based
nocturnal initiation, on the nose of warm air advection in the
850-700mb layer. Though the various convection allowing model
cores are scattered in placement, most are producing some sort of
overnight convection. MUCAPE may remain high enough with cloud
layer shear of around 30 kts to allow some storms to produce hail
nearing severe criteria.

After lingering convection Saturday morning, the persistent
pattern may produce another round of thunderstorms near the
western surface low in the late afternoon. A discrepancy in
solutions remains between CAMs, though the main outlier continues
to be the HRRR which keeps tomorrow dry compared to other
available models. Forecast soundings across the board look
uncapped for the most part, with the HRRR producing a deeper mixed
boundary layer (a known tendency) which may be preventing
initiation within the model. Thus the reasonable outcome is more
likely thunderstorm initiation tomorrow evening, though with some
question about coverage considering the mid-level height rises.
Again the CAPE/shear parameter space should provide an environment
for isolated severe thunderstorms if conditions align.

Temperatures Saturday become hot in the afternoon with highs in
the 90s across the west and central with a few points of the far
west possibly reaching 100.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

The persistence of above normal temperatures highlights the long
term forecast period.

Into next week, the upper level pattern is highlighted by the
amplified ridge over the Rockies, with climatologically high mid-
level heights over the Northern Plains. This pattern will maintain
above normal temperatures with a few low predictability chances
for convection as impulses run through the ridge axis. Each day
will feature widespread highs in the 90s, with hottest
temperatures in the west through mid-week. Several days of highs
crossing the 100 F threshold are possible for some areas as well,
for the west during the first portion of the period and then
possibly in the central later in the week. Though forecast max
heat indices remain below advisory criteria due to relatively
lower humidity, the prolonged period of hot temperatures is still
notable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the area overnight. Have
mentioned VCTS in the KDIK and KBIS TAFs where confidence is a bit
higher. Over other locations, will withhold mentioning for now.
Some storms may linger into the morning hours over the north.
Thunderstorm chances return from west to east again Saturday
afternoon. Did not mention this in current TAF package given there
is still a fair amount of uncertainty on timing and coverage.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...JJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-172345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 /537 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. A few storms may become
severe with hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph wind gusts
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon and evening.
A few storms may become severe with hail to the size of quarters
and 60 mph wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE STERLING           46.85N 100.25W
07/16/2021  E63 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MINOT               48.21N 101.29W
07/16/2021  E3.10 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA OF E3.1
            INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINOT. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE STERLING           46.84N 100.25W
07/16/2021                   BURLEIGH           ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL TRAILERS TURNED OVER NEAR
            STERLING AS A THUNDERSTORM PASSED. SOCIAL
            MEDIA REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

NDZ019-020-170030-
Oliver ND-Mercer ND-
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OLIVER AND EAST
CENTRAL MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stanton, or 14
miles east of Beulah, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazen and Stanton.

LAT...LON 4716 10162 4736 10161 4741 10141 4736 10136
      4735 10136 4731 10135 4729 10135 4728 10129
      4727 10126 4711 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 257DEG 11KT 4729 10147

GALE