Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

May 23, 2021Hettinger County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at May 23, 2021, 7:23 PM MDT for Hettinger County, North Dakota. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2021, 7:23 PM MDT (01:23 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2021, 7:45 PM MDT
In force
22 min
Issued by
NWS Bismarck, ND

County Hettinger County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 293 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-05-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-05-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -292 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1290 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-292 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 23, 5:05 PM MDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 23, 5:05 PM MDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
605 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

A quick update to state that expectations from the previous update
have changed very little if at all.

Thunderstorms were advancing north through western South Dakota
and the leading edge has crossed the North Dakota border and was
advancing through Bowman, Adams, Hettinger and Slope counties,
toward Stark. The strongest of the storms were in South Dakota,
where a tornado did occur with the cell in southeast Perkins
County, south of the city of Lemmon.

Mesoscale analysis shows the surface low near KUNR with a warm
front extending to the northeast into southcentral North Dakota.
Another circulation center is analyzed in southeast Montana.

Effective Bulk Shear is as high as 50 knots in western South
Dakota. In North Dakota it is as high as 40 knots through the
Bismarck area but decreases significantly into Dickinson,
Hettinger and Bowman. This explains why the cells in southwest
North Dakota have not taken on supercellular characteristics.
Interestingly, the greatest surface-1km shear is between Hettinger
and Carson (Grant County). Summed up this results in an
expectation of decreasing severe risk across Slope and Bowman
counties, and increasing risk east of there, from Adams and
Hettinger counties into Grant, with the highest tornado potential
there as well. The storm moving out of northeast Perkins County,
South Dakota, toward far eastern Adams County North Dakota,
bears watching over the next hour for possible intensification
and signs of rotation.

JP Martin
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Will expect the convection until closer to 6 PM CDT to be
showers based on CAPE and mid level lapse rates less favorable
now, becoming more favorable later across the south, and, this as
storms approach from northwestern South Dakota.

The severe threat for this evening remains basically along and
south of North Dakota Highway 200. Mesoanalysis continues to show
increasing favorability for severe weather as CAPE increases and
0-6km shear values reach to near 50kts. As far a the risk of
tornadoes, there is some with 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity
favorable for at least a few tornadoes south of Dickinson and
southwest of Bismarck.

As far as the storm mode and overall severe risk, indications
continue to be that with the deep layer shear vectors orientation
to the front, any discrete cells with a primary hail risk will
fairly quickly transition to more multicellular / linear modes.
This would transition the risk to damaging wind supported by 1,000
J'kg of downdraft CAPE along and south of Interstate 94 from the
Heart River Valley through the James River Valley. Concern has
gone to QLCS tornado formation with storm lines needing to be
watched closely for tornado development. Storms should be
progressive, however, with very high Precipitable water values
there will be heavy rainfall rates, though maybe short lived for a
given location. Another concern for heavy rain will be any
pivoting of a convective line with the pivot over the same area
leading to prolonged rain.

The H5 wave that triggers the convection will be exiting the
forecast area close to daybreak Monday. In cyclonic flow both at
the surface and aloft on Monday a few pop up instability showers
will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

The closed H5 low over Manitoba into Wednesday swings a few H5
waves through with continued small chances for showers. Milder on
temperatures as weak ridging pokes into the southern forecast
area. By mid week the next H5 low appears on the western horizon
and the area comes under southwest flow aloft with higher shower
chances then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

MVFR to IFR ceilings most TAF sites for the first half of the
forecast period, this in low clouds and patchy fog. Thunderstorms
in the southwest part of the forecast area will spread north and
east into Sunday night. There is a risk of +TSRA at all TAF sites
and +TSRAGR at KDIK and KBIS. Conditions will be improving after
24/0600Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM
Hazardous weather outlook, May 23, 5:44 PM MDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-023-025-242345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Wells-Foster-
644 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /544 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms tonight. The main hazards will be pea size
hail and wind gusts as high as 40 mph. Heavy rain is possible
from the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Patchy frost is possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
otherwise the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather by phone at
701-223-4582 or on NWS Bismarck social media.

NDZ018>022-031>037-040-043-046>048-050-051-242345-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Bowman-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
644 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /544 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue through the
night. A few of the storms could be severe with large hail up to
half dollar size and damaging wind gusts as high 65 mph. Heavy
rain is likely with these storms. The risk of severe weather will
be decreasing after 2 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Patchy frost is possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
otherwise the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather by phone at
701-223-4582 or on NWS Bismarck social media.

NDZ041-042-044-045-242345-
Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-
644 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /544 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight. A few of the storms
will be severe with large hail up to half dollar size and
damaging wind gusts as high as 70 mph. That severe weather risk
will be decreasing after 1 AM CDT. Isolated tornadoes are possible
until 10 PM CDT. Heavy rain is likely with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Patchy frost is possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
otherwise the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather by phone at
701-223-4582 or on NWS Bismarck social media.

JP Martin

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 23, 3:48 PM MDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
448 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ018>022-031>037-040>048-050-051-232300-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen,
Center, Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake,
Mcclusky, Goodrich, Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Mandan, Bismarck,
Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, Marmarth, Mott, New England, Elgin,
Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger, Fort Yates, Selfridge,
Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley,
Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, and Ellendale
448 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /348 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WERE PUSHING NORTH...

Thunderstorms continued to develop in western South Dakota at 445
PM CDT, and were pushing north. Storms will be crossing into
southwestern North Dakota between now and 545 PM CDT, from Bowman
to Hettinger and North Lemmon, this is along Highway 12.

Some of these storms could be severe with hail up to half dollar
size and wind gusts as high as 70 mph. A tornado watch is in
effect until 10 PM CDT for Hettinger County, Adams, Grant and
Sioux counties, where isolated tornadoes will be possible. Heavy
rainfall rates should be expected with the storms.

Some safety rule reminders for you include, keep an eye on the
sky and an ear to your National Weather Service. Move inside to a
safe place when threatening weather approaches or when warnings
are issued for your area. The safest place to be in a tornado is
below ground level, in a basement. If you do not have a basement
go to an interior room on the lowest level of the building, into a
bathroom, or closet.

JP Martin
Special weather statement, May 23, 4:49 PM MDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
449 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ044-232315-
Adams ND-
449 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 449 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Shadehill, or 8
miles south of Lemmon, moving north at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Adams
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for southwestern
North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4614 10235 4615 10200 4595 10200 4595 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 182DEG 31KT 4582 10212

HARGROVE
Special weather statement, May 23, 5:30 PM MDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
530 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ041-044-240015-
Hettinger ND-Adams ND-
530 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 529 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles north of
Bison, or 22 miles southwest of Lemmon, moving north at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hettinger, Haynes and Bucyrus.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for southwestern
North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4595 10278 4633 10282 4622 10210 4594 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 192DEG 39KT 4569 10247

HARGROVE
Special weather statement, May 23, 6:30 PM MDT, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ041-240100-
Hettinger ND-
630 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HETTINGER COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 629 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mott, moving
north at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Hettinger
County, including the following locations... Burt.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for southwestern
North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4623 10241 4663 10251 4663 10207 4623 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 179DEG 40KT 4633 10230

EDWARDS
Special weather statement, May 23, 7:23 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
823 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NDZ033-034-041-042-240145-
Grant ND-Hettinger ND-Stark ND-Morton ND-
823 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER...
WESTERN MORTON...SOUTHEASTERN STARK AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 822 PM CDT/722 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles
west of Heart Butte Dam, or 17 miles northwest of Elgin, moving north
at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hettinger, northwestern Morton, southeastern Stark and northwestern
Grant Counties.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/ for
south central and southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4644 10197 4656 10224 4689 10224 4687 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 188DEG 30KT 4658 10210

EDWARDS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 23, 6:30 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISHettinger30 min
May 23, 7:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISGrant, Mercer, Morton, Stark44 min
May 23, 8:06 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISMercer24 min
May 23, 11:12 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISLogan, McIntosh33 min
May 23, 11:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISDickey, LaMoure31 min
May 24, 12:15 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISSheridan, Wells30 min
May 24, 2:27 AM MDTWind AdvisoryBISBurke, Divide, Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, Williams17 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.