Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to push
eastward across western ND. Showers and thunderstorms are firing
along a surface boundary with the added forcing from a mid and
upper level trough moving over the same area. Convection is
expected to diminish with the loss of daytime heating this
evening, but the northwest into the north central may see showers
and a few storms linger in to the mid evening hours, aligned with
the stronger forcing.

We made some minor changes to sky cover and pops based on latest
satellite and radar observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to increase
across eastern Montana and western North Dakota this afternoon in
response to increasing instability and upper-level forcing. A
slight increase in boundary layer moisture combined with steep
lapse rates is likely producing a few hundred J/kg of CAPE.
Shear appears to be absent across the area which means any storms
that do develop likely won't be severe and will be short- lived.
Much of this activity is expected to dissipate with the loss of
diurnal heating, but a few showers may linger in north central
North Dakota overnight where stronger forcing is predicted.

Farther east, near critical fire weather conditions continue
across portions of central North Dakota this afternoon and
evening with relative humidity in the teens to low 20s and winds
around 15 mph.

Normal temperatures are expected for the short term period, with
highs tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and lows tonight in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

An active northwest flow pattern is expected for Thursday with
diurnally driven convection across the area these. The greatest
coverage of showers is favored for the eastern half of the state
tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly across
central and eastern North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Northwest flow aloft is likely Friday through this weekend as an
upper-level low cuts off from the main flow over the western
CONUS. This could result in additional chances for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, but there is greater
uncertainty at this time range. Ensemble spread begins to
increase early next week and confidence in the evolution of the
broader pattern is low. Temperatures should trend near to
slightly above normal over this time period, with highs mainly in
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible at KXWA/KMOT/KDIK through the
evening hours. Due to scattered/isolated nature of showers and
thunderstorms went with a vicinity mention in the TAFs.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-132330-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
629 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 /529 PM MDT Wed May 12 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. Severe weather
is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-132330-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-
Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
629 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are likely early this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ019>021-034-042-045-132330-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Morton-Grant-Sioux-
629 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 /529 PM MDT Wed May 12 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>