Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Periods of rain, some heavy at times will continue into the
evening hours east of interstate 81, with gradual drying further
back to the west. A few stronger thunderstorms are also possible
across the Poconos and Catskills into the evening. After some
patchy early morning fog expect mostly sunny and seasonable
weather for Friday and Saturday. A weak system brings a few more
clouds and a low chance for rain showers Saturday night into
Sunday, especially across Central NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

400 PM Update

Deep plume of moisture remains pointed at our central and
eastern zones late this afternoon, and will continue to bring
periods of moderate to heavy rain along and east of I-81 into
the evening hours. This moisture plume is very slowly inching
off to the east, but current radar/satellite trends show that it
may remain nearly stationary for a few hours this evening, as
stronger t'storm activity rides north from central NY into Pike,
Wayne, Sullivan and Delaware counties. Rainfall rates have generally
been around or under 0.5" per hour, except under the heavier
convection where 1 to 1.5" per hour would be possible. SPC
mesoanalysis shows a narrow ribbon of PWATS still around 1.7 to
1.8 inches collocated with the heavy rain band. The other thing
to watch will be the potential for isolated strong to severe
t'storms this evening; mainly across Pike, Sullivan and Delaware
counties. Current mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/Kg of SBCAPE
and effective layer wind shear around 45 kts...creating a
marginally favorable environment for a few supercells to develop
within the broader rain/convective band. Main concern would be
for isolated damaging wind gusts, if the winds from the low
level jet could mix down to the surface. Also, cannot rule out
an isolated, brief tornado, as 0-1km shear is 30-35 kts and low
level helicity is 200-300 M2/S2. Any storms should exit east of
our area by 10-11 PM as the front moves through.

Have cancelled the flash flood watches early for Steuben, Chemung,
Tioga, Bradford, Wyoming & Luzerne counties...where the steady
rain has already ended and stream levels are falling. The watch
remains in effect further east, where the potential for isolated
flooding issues remains. Latest mid level water vapor loop is
already showing much drier air entering our western zones, with
the visible satellite showing partly sunny skies back toward
Penn Yan, Hornell and Elmira. Expect this dry/clearing to gradually
push east, with the rain ending along I-81 around or just
before sunset and exiting our eastern zones after midnight.
Could see some patchy fog develop late tonight...cooler with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM Update

Upper level low stay far enough north and west to have little
impact on our area for Friday. We'll be under a cyclonic
southwest flow pattern. After some early morning fog expect
sunny skies, before some scattered cumulus clouds develop midday
and into the afternoon. There will be lake effect showers off of
lake Erie and Ontario, but these will remain well west of our
forecast area. Slightly breezy southwest winds 7-15 mph, with
seasonable temperatures expect...highs in the mid to upper 60s.

High pressure remains in control of our weather Friday night,
with mostly clear skies and light winds. This should allow for
radiational, valley fog to develop. Rather cool overnight lows,
dipping down into 40s. Cannot rule out some upper 30s in the
normally cooler, rural valleys.

Repeat for Saturday, after early morning valley fog and cool
start, expect partly sunny skies and slightly warmer afternoon
highs 70-75. Next upper level trough approaches late in the
afternoon toward sunset, with some increasing clouds from Binghamton
/Syracuse west. Light south-southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Previously mentioned trough swings through Saturday night and
early Sunday, bringing scattered rain showers...mainly for
Central NY. With more clouds around it won't be as cool
overnight, with forecast lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Some model differences for Sunday, but in general a broad upper
level trough remains in place across the eastern Great Lakes.
Depending on the timing of a shortwave disturbance, there could
be a chance for a few showers...especially north of Binghamton
across CNY again. Otherwise, partly sunny and seasonable with
highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

330 PM Update

The cool but seasonal temperatures will continue into early next
week as a Canadian short wave swings eastward across the Great Lakes
and Northeast. This trough will be capable of producing scattered
light rain showers Sunday night and through the day Monday. Some of
the rain could linger into Monday night. The rain is not expected to
be an all day event and amounts should be on the light side. The air
mass is expected to be on the cool side too, with 850mb temperatures
around +2 to +4 deg C. Overnight lows Sunday night/Mon morning will
drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Daytime highs on Monday will
rise into the mid 60s to near 70.

High pressure will build across the wrn Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday which will act to amplify the
cyclonic flow across the Northeast and continue to draw south a cool
and dry air mass from ern Canada. There is a slight chance for some
afternoon diurnal convective showers on Tuesday, but with limited
moisture any rainfall will be light and fairly isolated. Temperatures
Tue and Wed will remain season with highs in the 60s to around
70...and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Slow moving cold front with a narrow band of moderate to heavy
rain is moving east across the region this afternoon. Terminals
will be impacted with rain/fog/low clouds producing conditions
below alternate minimums through the next couple hours. Drier
air will move in behind the system tonight and clear conditions
out. MVFR ceilings may hold on around RME through the night,
but most sites should becomes VFR by 01-03Z this evening. There
is a heightened potential for fog with condition below alt
minimums at ELM between 07-13Z. All terminals will become VFR
after 13Z.

South winds around 10 to 20 kt will become swly this afternoon
and drop below 10 kt. Winds will remain swly and increase to 10
to 15 kt after 14Z Fri morning.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR conditions.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, apart from restrictions
in valley fog at KELM.

Tuesday...Increasing chances for showers and low clouds.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ048.
     Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for PAZ039-040-044-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ057-062.
     Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CATHARINE               42.32N 76.78W
09/23/2021  M2.40 INCH       SCHUYLER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
415 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NYZ057-PAZ040-072-232100-
Delaware NY-Southern Wayne PA-Northern Wayne PA-
415 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Delaware and northern Wayne Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bethany, or near Honesdale, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Honesdale, Walton, Deposit, Waymart, Hancock, Prompton, Bethany,
Hiawatha, Shehawken and Starlight.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 87 and 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 7517 4156 7541 4200 7541 4200 7537
      4202 7541 4214 7541 4216 7510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 180DEG 39KT 4165 7529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JAB