Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are anticipated through Wednesday
with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms. Localized
flash flooding will possible with these repeating batches of
rain. A few of the strongest storms could also contain damaging
winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
630 pm update...
Minor changes to the hourly temperatures and dewpoints, and
cloud cover. Temperatures have dropped into the 70s except for
Luzerne County in the 80s. Cloud debris is spreading north into
the area from the convection that fired in east central PA.

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms on radar. Heavy
rain and 2 have rotation. Flash flood warnings and tornado
warnings in effect.

330 PM Update...
A flash flood watch has once again been issued for the Southern
Tier and through all of NE PA for this afternoon until 2 am. A
weak boundary has been dropping south and will likely stall
along the NY/PA border this afternoon and be a focal point for
convection. With mostly sunny skies across most of the CWA south
of cortland county, 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE has developed along
and S of the NY/PA border. While the 700-500 mb RH is high,
there is still about 500 DCAPE across NE PA so strong winds are
possible in the strongest storms tonight. Obs show that there
are southerly to southeasterly winds across NE PA into the
southern Catskills and with the high CAPE values, there is an
outside chance of a brief tornado with any cells that are able
to stay isolated.

The bigger threat this afternoon and evening will be flash flooding.
heavy rains from yesterday and nearly saturated soils from all the
rain over the last two weeks, it will not take much rain to lead to
river and stream responses. PWATs are once again between 1.8 and 2
inches and long skinny CAPE means any storm that develops will
contain high rainfall rates. While rainfall will not be as
widespread as yesterday, some training of storms is possible along
the surface boundary along the NY/PA border. Convection starting to
form already is currently south of the regions that got the heaviest
rain last night but will have to be watched just in case they drift
north.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms could continue across NE PA as a
weak LLJ forms and helps feed nocturnal convection but confidence is
not as high for where or if those storms can get going after 3Z.
Late tonight through tomorrow morning, we get a break from the rain
with patchy fog developing once again tonight. Tomorrow we will once
again have a threat for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the
tropical airmass still in place, heavy rainfall is once again a
threat. Dew points get up into the low to mid 70s tomorrow along
with highs in the mid 80s so the heat index will be high in valley
locations but not expected to reach advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, upper level trough will move into the northeast U.S
with cooling at mid-levels above a very moist boundary layer.
Surface dewpoints will be in the lower 70s mainly in the eastern CWA
as maximum heating occurs in the afternoon. Mixed layer CAPEs will
be running around 1000 to 2000 J/kg across most of east central NY
and northeast PA on the NAM and 500 to 1000 J/kg on the GFS. 0-6 km
bulk shear is projected to range from 20 to 30 knots on the NAM and
a little weaker on the GFS. With the upper level wave pushing into
the upper ridge, precipitable water values will drop to around 1.5"
or below as the day progresses from west to east. NAMNest
suggests less coverage and more progressive thunderstorms and
less potential for flash flooding. So we will have likely POPs
all CWA and concur with SPC Marginal Risk mainly eastern NY and
northeast PA as drier air builds in earlier in the day in
western NY.

Then for Wednesday night precipitation from this upper level feature
tapers off and moves to the east. A sliver of an upper level ridge
and weak surface feature will cross the region overnight into
Thursday morning. Then a southwest increasingly moist flow develops
Thursday afternoon. GFS tries to bring more scattered showers and
thunderstorms for most of central NY /northeast PA Thursday
afternoon. the 12z NAM and The 06z Euro and its ensemble means holds
off for precipitation Thursday afternoon. The CMC operational keeps
Thursday dry with its ensemble mean bringing very light QPF to
Finger Lakes late Thursday. We will go a bit lower than NBM on this
which does have slight chance POPs for the Finger Lakes area
Thursday pm.

Then for Thursday night all models are dry so again we will go with
a drier forecast than NBM which has only slight chance POPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Followed NBM fairly closely as another upper level trough and
associated surface feature moves into the region with more showers
and thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night. Upper level
trough presses into the northeast U.S on Sunday. Medium Range models
vary as to how deep the trough is and hence vary on how much
convection develops Sunday. By next Monday, models vary with some
having a closed low right over NY/PA to a closed low east of NY/PA
to a broad trough over our area. We will follow NBM during this time
of model divergence in solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 pm update...

Most sites VFR to start but falling to MVFR this evening.
BGM/AVP should have thunderstorms this evening. Light showers
rest of the area if any. BGM/AVP/RME should fall to IFR cigs
late tonight. Some MVFR vsbys possible at all sites. Tuesday
conditions rise to VFR for most midday and high end MVFR
BGM/RME.

East winds at 5 kts this evening becoming late and variable late
tonight. Tuesday south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Busy pattern continues with
multiple waves of showers/thunderstorms and restrictions.

Wednesday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR, but valley
fog probable for late nights-early mornings at KELM.

Friday afternoon through Saturday...Chance of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ022-024-045-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/TAC
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044-046-131915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-
Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Otsego-
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms could lead to another round of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding on Tuesday. There is also a chance that
a few thunderstorms could have strong damaging winds on Tuesday as
well. For Wednesday, there is a continued chance for additional
strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ022-024-045-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-131915-
Steuben-Chemung-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms could lead to another round of heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding on Tuesday. There is also a
chance that a few thunderstorms could have strong damaging winds on
Tuesday as well. For Wednesday, there is a continued chance for
additional strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NICOSIA

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