Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
919 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy rain,
with localized flooding possible. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue Monday, as another disturbance drops
through the region. Though a small chance of showers lingers
Tuesday, drier and cooler weather is anticipated for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
910 PM Update...

Made rather significant changes to the forecast for this evening
to reflect latest radar trends. Convection has fired up along
the Central Southern Tier of NY to the southern Finger Lakes
along a corridor of enhanced CAPE and closer to the upper level
trough. A few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already been
issued for this part of the CWA. Meanwhile, farther south,
across our Northeast PA counties, conditions have been mainly
dry with just a few light showers around. Therefore adjusted
PoPs to upgrade the Central Southern Tier of NY and Finger Lakes
regions to likely and adjust PoPs downward farther south. Now
that it is post-sunset, instability will likely be on the
downward trend as the rest of this evening progresses and
therefore the severe thunderstorm threat will likely decrease
over the next few hours.

Will let the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Northern Tier of
PA/Wyoming Valley ride until its scheduled expiration at
02Z/10PM EDT.

640 PM Update...
So far, the strongest storms in PA have stayed west of our CWA
(more across Central PA), closer to the upper level trough and
greater shear. Despite instability present across the Northern
Tier of PA and the Wyoming Valley, the lack of enough lift has
prevented much thunderstorm development up to this point. Still
expecting coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
increase throughout this evening as the trough approaches, but
the overall extent of the severe weather potential for the
above mentioned areas (where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains
in effect until 10PM) is somewhat questionable. The greatest
coverage of showers and storms may not be until after sunset and
by then, diurnally-driven instability will be waning. That being
said, we are not making any changes to the Watch at this point
and this will be re-evaluated with the next forecast update. Any
storms that do develop with have the potential to bring locally
heavy rainfall.

In terms of tweaks to the official forecast, mainly made
adjustments to PoPs to better reflect current radar trends.
Otherwise, the previous discussion below remains valid.

320 PM Update...
Latest RAP13 analysis shows a band of low level convergence
focused over the Northern Tier of PA, though this is not
readily apparent in surface obs. Instability axis extends across
pretty much the same area, but continues eastward into the
Catskills and Poconos, where cloud cover has eroded over the
past couple of hours. Further north, rather dry air in the low
levels is limiting instability despite slightly cooler air in
the mid-levels -- note lower 50s dewpoints and even 47 at ITH
which would be questionable if not for the 50 at Cortland.
Meanwhile, and upper level trough is moving across SW Ontario,
evident in satellite imagery, while a surface trough/weak cold
front tries to take shape from far western NY into eastern Ohio,
masked somewhat by the lake breeze downwind of Lake Erie.

Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage across the Northern Tier of PA, with a general eastward
progression, with stronger cells perhaps curving more to the
southeast as they tap into the mid-level flow. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface trough
early this evening, and will spread east into our area,
including the Southern Tier and parts of the Finger Lakes where
destabilization can occur. Expect several clusters of storms to
be on-going by nightfall, with some heavy rain potential as
storms may try to train along old leftover boundaries. The
greatest risk of heavy rainfall will be over NE PA, where low-
level theta-e ridging looks to lay across, nosing into the
Catskills/Poconos overnight.

Mid-level dry air will promote strong thunderstorm wind gusts
early on, with isolated hail possible given steeper lapse rates, but
as soundings become more modified/moist, heavy rain will become
the primary threat.

For Monday, the main upper trough will swing into southwestern
Ontario, with several bands of rain and embedded thunder
possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms can't be
ruled out again, but will be highly dependent on how convection
evolves overnight into the morning hours. At this time, it
appears areas east of I-81 will be most likely to recover and
destabilize before the main trough swings through.

1145 AM Update...
Low clouds are rapidly breaking up and are currently limited to
the Catskills and NE PA, with plenty of sunshine filling in to
the north and west. With strong surface heating, we could see
temperatures in parts of the Mohawk Valley climb well into the
middle or even upper 80s by this afternoon.

Thunderstorm potential remains a challenging forecast. HRRR and
other high-res models suggest weak low level convergence will
develop along a line roughly from ELM-SYR with southwest flow to
the west of the boundary, and backed S to SSE flow to its east,
apparently influenced by differential heating on either side of
the dissipating cloud layer. Meanwhile, RAP13, NAM, other models
suggest moderate instability will develop across the Twin Tiers
by this afternoon, with SBCAPE vales of 1000-1500 J/KG, and
minimal CIN. Despite the collocation of the low level
convergence and instability, many of these same models struggle
to initiate convection without a larger-scale trigger. That
trigger, a shortwave trough currently over Lake Huron, doesn't
look to arrive into western NY/PA until around 00Z, assuming it
is being properly initialized.

For now, kept at least a "Chance" PoP in the SW part of the CWA
and extending E-NE along the low level convergence zone early
this afternoon, but the better chances for thunderstorms may not
come until later this afternoon into this evening, with a focus
mainly south of the Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Some patchy fog could hang around Tuesday morning, but should lift
soon after sunrise. A couple of weak shortwaves and low level
moisture will provide some support for a few spotty showers on
Tuesday. With a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present, afternoon
thunderstorms are also possible. Not much is expected for
accumulations, up to a couple of tenths at best. Highs will only be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s as northerly flow advects cooler air
into the area. Showers and skies clear out Tuesday night as high
pressure moves in. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s and 50s

Sunny skies are in store for Wednesday. However, with northerly flow
still present, highs will once again be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
This cooler air will provide plenty of natural AC as lows drop into
the 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM Update...

The start of the long term period will start out quiet. High temps
on Thursday will be in the 70s and the lows will fall into the upper
40s and low 50s. Friday will also be fairly quiet, but the pattern
begins to shift. A ridge moves through and flow becomes more
southwesterly, bringing warmer air and moisture to the area. Highs
will be closer to 80 on Friday. Chances for precipitation increase
Friday evening as a cold front approaches the area. This cold front
will bring rain showers and possibly some thunderstorms through
Saturday night. Models still differ on the timing of this system
with GFS still being the faster solution, so followed National Blend
of Guidance (NBM) for the timing which is a little slower like the
ECMWF. Sunday looks to be cooler to finish out the weekend with
also a slight chance for showers with the passing of a weak
system.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight,
especially this evening across the Twin Tiers. Right now,
confidence in thunder was only high enough to include in the TAF
at KBGM and KELM in two hour TEMPO groups this evening.
Elsewhere, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF just yet.
Will continue to monitor this potential for potential amendments
if necessary.

In terms of restrictions, mainly VFR conditions early this
evening will likely give way to at least Fuel Alternate ceiling
restrictions overnight at all TAF sites with the exception of
KSYR. Best chance for IFR conditions will be at KAVP, KBGM, and
KELM. Patchy fog/mist is also possible. Conditions are expected
to return to VFR by Monday afternoon, with KAVP likely being the
last terminal to do so.

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
Monday afternoon, although confidence in thunder is too low at
this time to include in the TAFs. This will be fine-tuned in the
upcoming TAF issuances.

Outlook...

Monday night...Some restrictions possible with lower ceilings
and/or patchy fog.

Tuesday...Chance of additional showers and thunderstorms/brief
restrictions, otherwise mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-150215-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
overnight. A few of these storms may contain gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will affect the area on Monday,
mainly near and east of I-81. Gusty wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-150215-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
overnight. A few of these storms may contain gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will affect the area on Monday,
with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible again, mainly
near and east of I-81. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE READING CENTER    42.41N 76.92W
06/13/2021                   SCHUYLER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN WITH POWERPOLES SNAPPED.

&&

BJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1043 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

NYZ022-024-140315-
Steuben-Chemung-
1043 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHEMUNG AND
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN COUNTIES...

At 1043 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Coopers Plains to near Lawrenceville.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Corning and Painted Post around 1050 PM EDT.
  Hornby and South Corning around 1055 PM EDT.
  East Corning around 1105 PM EDT.
  Big Flats around 1110 PM EDT.
  Southport around 1115 PM EDT.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4226 7719 4227 7685 4200 7688 4200 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 272DEG 20KT 4220 7713 4194 7720

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVONA                  42.28N  77.22W
06/13/2021                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE HARDWOOD AND PINE TREES SNAPPED. ROOF OFF
            TRAILER AND THROWN INTO NEIGHBOR'S YARD.

&&

DJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

NYZ015>018-140345-
Onondaga-Southern Cayuga-Seneca-Yates-
1047 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SENECA...YATES...
NORTHWESTERN CAYUGA AND NORTHWESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

At 1047 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Cato to near Lyons to near Vine
Valley. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Lysander and Potter around 1110 PM EDT.
  Waterloo and Plainville around 1115 PM EDT.
  Jordan and Ferguson Corners around 1120 PM EDT.
  Seneca Falls and Lehigh Vallley Junction around 1125 PM EDT.
  Baldwinsville and Penn Yan around 1130 PM EDT.
  Cayuga and Canoga around 1135 PM EDT.
  Union Springs and Milo Center around 1140 PM EDT.
  Auburn and Romulus around 1145 PM EDT.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4276 7731 4277 7697 4301 7696 4303 7650
      4323 7647 4323 7630 4321 7626 4324 7627
      4324 7626 4320 7622 4322 7620 4327 7621
      4323 7611 4290 7648 4255 7696 4258 7737
      4267 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 286DEG 18KT 4319 7666 4301 7702 4278 7734

DJN