Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
417 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front dropping south this afternoon will trigger
isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening.
Cooler and drier conditions will arrive tomorrow and Friday.
Unsettled weather looks to return for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
310 PM Update...

Just a few more hours of this hot and humid air mass before a
cold front drifts southward this evening and brings some relief.
However, before we get into the cooler and drier air, there will
be another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Very little flow aloft/shear
so the main concerns this afternoon and evening will be
torrential downpours and isolated flash flooding, especially if
any storms track over areas that saw torrential downpours
yesterday. No shortage of instability today, with over 2500
J/kg of CAPE across the area. There is a very small isolated
severe threat for any robust updrafts that can develop, as
precip loading could produce some strong to isolated severe wind
gusts.

The drier and slightly cooler air will move in from the north
tonight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s across
the northern zones...and into the 60s south. This stable air
should keep most of the area completely dry tomorrow. There is a
very small chance for an isolated shower across our far southern
forecast area in NE PA, but this will be dependent on the
location of the front. Current guidance is in decent agreement
that the frontal zone stalls out just south of the region, with
dry conditions north of the front. Temperatures will be much
more comfortable on Thu with high temps topping out in the 80s
and dew points in the only in 50s. Also, expect good sleeping
weather Thursday night with lows dipping into the 50s and low
humidity overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off the coast of New England will flip the winds
back to out of the south and bring more moisture back into the
area Friday morning. A weak area of instability will develop
over our western counties, with max CAPE values near 900 J/KG
before a shortwave makes its way down from Canada and during the
afternoon. This lifting mechanism combined with the weak
boundary over our area will lead to some scattered rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms over our western counties. Without
any quality shear to support the development of these storms,
the main threats will be heavy rain and gusty winds. Friday
night and Saturday morning look to be quiet before another short
wave will move over the area Saturday afternoon, bringing
another slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms to the
Twin Tiers, Catskills and Poconos. Instability will be weak and
shear support will be minimal so the main threat with these
storms would be locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Northwest flow aloft will help keep temperatures around normal
for this time of the year, with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main weather concern for this period is a cold front passage
on Sunday afternoon, with rain showers and cooler temperatures
towards the end of the period.

A cold front will pass through our area from the northwest on
Sunday afternoon, bringing rain showers and thunderstorms to
our area. The upper level trough that will push this front
through will begin to dig deep into the eastern US, pushing
some disturbances through our area Monday, bringing another
chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air
will advect into the region from Canada Tuesday morning, along
with another weak disturbance. Because of the cooler and drier
atmosphere, there will be a chance for isolated rain showers;
thunderstorms are not expected. Highs for the rest of the
period will be in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid
40s. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon as a front pushes through the region. Hard to
pinpoint any one location, but any showers/storms will be brief.
Skies will clear out this evening behind the front and likely
VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the period. There
is a small chance for fog development at AVP and BGM late
tonight but the drier air moving in may inhibit the extent of
the fog, so left it out of the forecast for now.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Friday...Small chance of SHRA/TSRA
late Friday afternoon/evening. Minor flight restrictions
possible.

Saturday...Low chance for a shower, but mainly VFR.

Sunday and Monday...Chance for SHRA/TSRA and associated
restrictions. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101945-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may be capable of producing
locally heavy rain on top of already saturated soils...which could
lead to flash flooding. Also, some storms may produce locally strong
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PHILLIPSPORT       41.61N 74.41W
06/09/2021                   SULLIVAN           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

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