Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1017 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic air will pour across the area overnight into Saturday,
with winds from the northwest. This will cause lake effect snow
showers, especially for Central New York yet stretching into
Northeast Pennsylvania at times. High pressure then builds into
the region Sunday. Our next chance of snow will come early next
week with a low tracking south of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1015 PM Update...
Slight veering of flow now in progress, which is shifting the
primary lake effect band back to where it was originally
forecast to be. It will continue to drift further south for the
remainder of the night. Lysander in the northwest corner of
Onondaga actually managed to get about 7 inches already - 6
inches of that since 630 PM - though additional snow will be
shifting further south, where there has been considerably less.
Winter Weather Advisories thus remain in place southeast of Lake
Ontario, while the earlier expansion for Northern Oneida
expired as scheduled at 10 PM since additional snow there will
now only be about an inch or so overnight.

Meanwhile, scattered snow showers have continued across the
Finger Lakes to Twin Tiers; even a couple isolated squalls still
such as one that just crossed Interstate 88 and is now in
Delaware County. Snowfall rates both in the heaviest lake effect
bands north, and much more briefly in the isolated squalls,
have been reaching 1-2 inches per hour. Though less squally
overnight, a few snow showers and flurries can be expected to
continue as Arctic air pours over the region.

Previous discussion...
West and northwest winds will continue to send a chilly airmass
into our region through Saturday. Instability and moisture are
sufficient enough this afternoon for the continuation of snow
showers and squalls across the region into the evening. While
these will be brief up to a quick inch of snow could fall.

With the loss of daytime heating, these snow showers should
become more isolated. However, a more concentrated band of lake
effect snow is expected to form southeast of Lake Ontario just
south of the NY Thruway. This band will then shift slowly south
tonight and focus in the Finger lakes Saturday morning. Modeled
soundings show sufficient mid-level dry air by Saturday to
limit intensity and coverage of snow with this band. Modeling is
still quite variant on the exact location of the band with the
NAM being notably south of the other model guidance. Our
forecast leaned heavily on the RGEM which tends to be the best
performer with Lake Effect events.

Snowfall ratios should maximized under the band given the amount
of instability and omega in the snow growth region. Ratios look
to increase to on the order of 20:1 given temperatures falling
from the 20's into the 10's tonight. This band also looks
relatively narrow with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in
the band.

A rather cold Saturday as well with lingering snow showers.
Winds from the north and clouds will keep temperatures rather
steady throughout the day in the 10's and 20's. Momentum
transfer does show a gusty day as well with top gusts of 20-25
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM Update:
Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will slowly
shift to the east across our area through the weekend. Cold
northwest flow will be slow to release its grip on the area, but
lake effect snow showers will diminish by Sunday morning, and
some breaks of sun will be possible, especially east of I-81.
Temperatures look to be at their coldest on Saturday Night/
Sunday morning, with negative single digits across northern
Oneida County, and teens commonplace elsewhere. However,
slackening winds, low humidity and clearing skies might lead to
some spots being colder on Sunday Night/Monday morning,
particularly valleys and hollows due to radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM Update:
Deterministic models have continued to trend towards a snowier
solution for much of the CWA for the period from Monday Night
through Tuesday Night. GFS/CMC/ECMWF all have similar versions
of the same story with a surface low moving from the Central
Plains into and peaking in intensity as it moves across the Ohio
Valley Monday Night as a secondary low forms off the Delmarva
Peninsula. The original surface low then rapidly weakens over
western PA on Tuesday as the coastal moves to the east, south of
New England. A band of light to moderate snow looks to set up
across the area, focused along the PA/NY border. The GFS
features the deepest surface low, and highest QPF amounts (a
little over 1 inch in places), while the ECMWF remains the
weakest, with around 0.30 inches QPF, running slightly behind
the Canadian.

Ensemble plumes suggest the deterministic GFS is on the higher side
of the ensemble spread, while the probability of 6 inch snowfall in
24hr is around 40 to 50 percent and focused just south of the NY/PA
state lines. The ECMWF ensemble probs for the same amount are less
than 10 percent, though the 3 inch+ prob is 50 to 60, again focused
just south of the state line.

It's still too early for any solid accumulation forecasts, but as
the previous shift indicated, the chances for a "plowable" snowfall
with some considerable travel impacts continue to slowly increase,
but some inter-model consistency on system strength would be nice to
see to increase confidence.

Quieter weather looks to persist behind this system through mid-
week, with NW flow returning and likely lake effect clouds as well.
Another system similar to the first may try to close out the
weekend, but model consensus keeps this well to our south (again),
and will need to be watched to see if it trends northward as well.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overspreading Arctic air and northwest winds are causing lake
effect snow showers and associated fuel alternate-IFR
restrictions for KSYR-KRME this evening with up to a few inches
of fluffy dry runway accumulations. Snow showers will tend to
shift south overnight to exit KSYR-KRME yet then reaching KITH-
KBGM late tonight into Saturday morning. Though KELM could get
skimmed by flurries; VFR will be predominant there and
especially for KAVP. Winds Saturday may get rather gusty; in
excess of 20 knots at times. Main forecast uncertainties are
exact timing for exit of snow from KRME and especially KSYR
overnight, and then how long intermittent IFR snow showers will
persist Saturday morning KBGM-KITH; perhaps even through midday.
KSYR could also get revisited by snow showers Saturday morning.
It is also at least possible for KELM to get snow showers
Saturday morning with associated brief restrictions.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Monday morning...High pressure and VFR
conditions.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Possible restrictions with
snow. Accumulations possible on runways. Highest chance for
restrictions at KAVP, KELM and KBGM.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ017-018-
     036-037-044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP/MWG
NEAR TERM...MDP/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
541 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ017-018-036-037-044-232245-
Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
541 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ015-016-022>025-045-046-055>057-062-232245-
Yates-Seneca-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-
Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
541 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered snow squalls tonight could drop a quick half inch to inch
of snow in spots. These squalls could cause brief yet very low
visibility as well as slick roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow is likely Monday night and Tuesday with enough snow possible
for travel impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-232245-
Northern Oneida-
541 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-232245-
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
541 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered snow squalls this evening could drop a quick half inch to
inch of snow in spots. These squalls could cause brief yet very low
visibility as well as slick roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow is likely Monday night and Tuesday with enough snow possible
for travel impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1044 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ057-062-230445-
Sullivan-Delaware-
1044 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

At 1040 PM EST, a snow squall was located along a line extending
from near Deposit to near Roscoe. Movement was east-southeast at 25
mph.

Gusty winds up to 30 mph, visibility of one-quarter mile or less,
and a quick half inch to an inch of snow in under 30 minutes are
possible with this squall.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Neversink, Parksville, Hazel, Harvard, Grahamsville,
Willowemoc, Woodbourne, Livingston Manor and Corbett.

Slow down and use extra caution if traveling into or through this
dangerous snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially
slick roads can lead to accidents.

LAT...LON 4175 7457 4170 7450 4192 7496 4196 7512
      4212 7539 4212 7515 4197 7465 4187 7446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 291DEG 22KT 4211 7539 4201 7489

JRK