Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
858 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will persist for much of Wednesday, then increase
again Thursday as a fast moving storm system descends from
Canada. Temperatures will be chilly this weekend with highs in
the teens or lower 20s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
855 AM Update...

Heavy lake effect snow showers continue this morning, with some
being quite intense with visibility less than 1/4 mile in the
heaviest showers. Will continue to handle these with special
weather statements. Have updated PoP for the remainder of today,
as best chance for heavy snow showers will be in the next couple
of hours and then short wave pulls out to our east. Showers will
then start to diminish in coverage and intensity, but some
lighter lake effect showers may linger into this evening, but by
then they will remain closer to the lakes and not have the
inland extent in coverage that we are seeing this morning.

540 AM update...

The lake effect snow activity over Northern Oneida County has
weakened. We cancelled the advisory.

Previous discussion...

A lake effect snow band will affect Northern Oneida County
through the early morning hours. Overnight accumulations of 3
to 6 inches are anticipated, given the high radar returns and
upstream reports.

A passing trough will swing winds to the northwest today. This
will generate synoptic snow showers with embedded lake effect
downwind of the relatively warmer lake waters. Lapse rates will
trend toward dry adiabatic this afternoon. The decreased
stability will cause a few squalls with brief whiteout
conditions.

We used a non-diurnal temperature trend today, as temperatures
should fall through the afternoon hours. Most areas will see
between 1 and 2 inches of new snow between the early morning
hours and this afternoon.

After a quiet evening, a clipper system will drop into NY
Thursday morning and afternoon with a mix of synoptic and lake
effect snow. A dusting to an inch of snow will fall across the
region. Far northern sections of the forecast area could pick up
an inch of two. Highs will peak in the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
325 AM Update:

Most of this period will feature scattered lake effect snow
showers, mainly in Central NY. Northeast PA and the southern
Catskills will likely remain mostly dry.

Behind the departing clipper system, winds will shift to a more
westerly direction. Meanwhile, 850mb temperatures fall to around
-9C by Friday morning. This will set the stage for lake effect
 snow showers to develop east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie
 Thursday night. Moisture looks relatively limited, and
 therefore snow amounts will be relatively minor. Highest
 snowfall amounts Thursday night will be across northern Oneida
 County, where 1-3 inches of snow is currently expected. Less
 than an inch is currently expected elsewhere. Low temperatures
 are expected to be in the 20s.

A continued west-northwest flow will keep lake effect snow
showers going Friday through Friday night. The area of the most
concentrated snow showers will shift a bit southward on Friday
to the NY Thruway corridor and the Finger Lakes Region. Still
expecting snowfall amounts to remain on the lighter side, with
generally 1-3 inches of snow expected across these areas, and
less than an inch towards the Twin Tiers and Catskills. Much of
Northeast PA, especially the Poconos will likely remain mostly
dry with partly sunny skies. Rest of the area will be mostly
cloudy as is usual with northwest flow. Highs on Friday are
expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with lows Friday
night mainly in the teens.

A few lingering light lake effect snow showers are possible in
Central NY on Saturday, but otherwise a general drying trend is
expected. Mostly cloudy skies are expected in Central NY, with
partly sunny skies in Northeast PA and the southern Catskills.
With Canadian high pressure moving in, cold weather is expected
with 850mb temperatures falling to around -18C. Highs will
likely only be in the mid teens to lower 20s for the majority of
the area, with parts of the Wyoming Valley in the mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
325 AM Update:

Strong Canadian high pressure will bring dry weather Saturday
night through Sunday along with partly sunny skies for Sunday.
However, with 850mb temperatures still quite cold (-10C to
-12C), high temperatures will still be below normal, albeit a
 few degrees warmer than Saturday. Highs are expected to be in
 the upper teens to mid 20s for the majority of the area, with
 parts of the Wyoming Valley in the upper 20s.

Forecast uncertainty increases by the beginning of next week.
While a favorable storm track/active pattern looks to set up,
arctic high pressure may be strong enough to keep
precipitation to our south. However, this is far from a
certainty, and it is possible the high situates itself a bit
further north and/or becomes weaker, therefore allowing
precipitation chances to be further north. With the highly
uncertain forecast, for now just followed the NBM (National
Blend of Models) for PoPs for beginning of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM update...

Snow showers will bring a mix of IFR and MVFR restrictions to
our terminals through Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings will
fluctuate between 1200 and 3500 feet, while visibilities bounce
between 1SM and 4SM.

Snow showers will taper off late Wednesday afternoon as a
transient high pressure system moves through the region. VFR
conditions will prevail as northwest winds increase to 10 to 20
knots.

Expect another round of snow showers Wednesday night when a cold
front drops out of Canada. IFR restrictions will be likely in
snow showers.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...More of the same with snow showers,
low clouds, and MVFR-IFR restrictions. This activity will be
more widespread on Thursday and Thursday night with the passage
of a clipper system.

Sunday...Possibly high pressure and VFR conditions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
541 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-211045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
541 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow showers this morning will lead to a slick commute. Allow extra
time to reach your destination. In addition, a few snow squalls will
be possible this afternoon with brief whiteout conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
829 AM EST WED JAN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     SNOW             2 N ONEIDA              43.10N 75.66W
01/20/2021  M4.0 INCH        MADISON            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
838 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

NYZ017-018-036-037-044-201415-
Onondaga-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Southern Cayuga-Madison-
838 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ONEIDA...MADISON...CENTRAL
CAYUGA...NORTHERN CORTLAND AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

At 837 AM EST, a line of moderate to heavy snow showers  was located
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Montezuma to near
Clinton. Movement was south at 25 mph. These snow showers will
produce a quick inch of snow.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, Utica, Auburn, De Witt, Sullivan, Van Buren,
Oneida, Kirkland and Lenox.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4314 7520 4276 7528 4277 7671 4296 7674
      4301 7672 4302 7671 4303 7650 4310 7650
      4311 7647 4313 7648 4316 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 021DEG 21KT 4311 7670 4305 7543

MWG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 AM EST WED JAN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     SNOW             1 S VAN ETTEN           42.19N 76.55W
01/20/2021  M3.0 INCH        CHEMUNG            NY   PUBLIC

            ELEVATION 1850 FT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
851 AM EST WED JAN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     SNOW             CAZENOVIA               42.94N 75.85W
01/20/2021  M4.0 INCH        MADISON            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ELEVATION 1505 FT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
914 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

NYZ017-018-025-036-037-044>046-201515-
Otsego-Chenango-Onondaga-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Southern
Cayuga-Madison-Tompkins-
914 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA...OTSEGO...
MADISON...CAYUGA...CORTLAND...ONONDAGA...NORTHERN TOMPKINS AND
NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTIES...

At 912 AM EST, a heavy band of snow showers was located along a line
extending from near Jordanville to Melrose Park. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph. Quick snowfall accumulations of an inch or so
will occur with this band of snow showers.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, Utica, Auburn, De Witt, Cortland, Sullivan,
Oneida, Kirkland and Lenox.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4252 7471 4251 7665 4255 7665 4255 7659
      4260 7665 4302 7667 4303 7650 4307 7649
      4311 7516 4305 7522 4286 7521 4286 7514
      4291 7509 4283 7491 4290 7488 4285 7473
      4278 7466 4264 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 337DEG 26KT 4293 7500 4292 7654

MWG