Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal boundary will move the region through tonight
with a round of showers and thunderstorms. This frontal boundary
stalls along the east coast with high pressure attempting to
build in from the north keeping low chances for precipitation
through Friday. Another frontal boundary moves toward the
region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather will continue across the region into this evening.
The frontal boundary driving the rain showers and thunderstorms
is slowly moving through the Mohawk Valley and Finger Lakes
Region. Ahead of the front, CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg and
bulk shear between 30-40 kts across the Catskills, eastern
Southern Tier and NE PA will continue to drive thunderstorm
development with isolated cells hitting severe criteria, with
strong winds the main threat. Shear orientation is somewhat
normal to the movement of the line so training storms are a
possibility, with heavy rains bringing a chance for isolated
flash flooding, especially in areas prone to it when impacted by
heavy rain. Thunderstorms are expected to be diurnally driven
and should begin to weaken as the sun begins to set. Behind the
front, some antifrontal activity is bringing areas of rain
showers and isolated weak thunderstorms. Areas impacted by heavy
rain from the first round of storms should be mindful of any
heavy showers that occur as flooding could occur. Rain across
most of NY should end from west to east beginning around 8pm.

Upper level support from a jet streak and sufficient moisture will
help drive a line of light rain showers across NE PA and the
Catskills until after midnight.

A high pressure system will move in from the west behind the cold
front. This will shift winds from the surface to 850mb to the
northwest during the overnight period. This will allow for moisture
to be advected in from the Great Lakes. Combined with abundant
surface moisture combined with light winds through out the lower
portion of the atmosphere...there will bring a good chance for
widespread areas of fog. The fog will linger through the early
morning and should begin to lift around sunrise...with denser areas
finally burning off by mid morning.

The high pressure system looks to quickly move through our area and
settle to the east, changing wind directions to out of the south by
Thursday morning. The front that moved through the area on Wednesday
will linger to the south of our CWA and this wind shift will help
push that front back to the north into NE PA and the Catskills as a
warm front. Currently, there will be a chance for scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms during peak heating in the
afternoon along the front. The high should suppress any other
precipitation generation. Continued low level moisture and high
pressure overhead will help generate another chance for fog during
the overnight hours.

Temperatures tonight should drop to the mid 60s across the Wyoming
Valley and Poconos as the warm front will linger across the area
through the morning. areas to the north will see mid to upper 50s
for lows. Highs on Thursday should be in the mid to upper 70s. More
muggy conditions will be felt across NE PA and into the Southern
Tier as the warm front pushes north. Our western and northern
portions of the CWA should feel a bit drier with dewpoints in the
upper 50s. Lows Thursday night will drop into the low to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure nosing in from New England should be
sufficient enough to hold most precipitation at bay on Friday.
However, surface dewpoints still in the mid-upper 60s with
daytime heating may be sufficient to overcome a weak cap for
isolated showers, or a thunderstorm during the favorable
afternoon time of day. Low pressure offshore will encourage a
E-SE flow into the Catskills and Poconos, so if there's any
place that has a higher probability outside the randomness of
airmass thunderstorms...that would be it. Still quite warm for
September with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

A weak front extending from a surface low moving through Canada will
stall out over central NY on Saturday. Low PoPs are again warranted
with this feature to account for isolated to scattered convective
activity. Warm during the day with upper 70s to low 80s across the
region...then turning drier and a bit cooler for Saturday night with
lows in the 50s

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range models are still suggesting several days next week of
dry and unseasonably warm weather for September. Temperatures Sunday
and especially Monday-Tuesday are anticipated to be above average.
High pressure settles in on Sunday and then strengthens into
Tuesday. There appears to be a good deal of drying throughout the
atmosphere during this time which will keep the region rain free for
more than a day...and probably up to 3, maybe even 4 if we're lucky.
We are anticipating temperatures to be slightly warmer than the NBM
model guidance package, so have blended in a little of the 90th
percentile values to boost daytime highs a bit, especially for
Monday-Tuesday. A drier atmosphere should allow for some mainly
clear skies at night with radiational cooling. Given the longer
pattern of wet conditions this summer...valley fog each morning
seems a good bet as the nights cool off. High pressure breaks
down slowly with return southerly flow beginning on Tuesday for
some increase in humidity...but the next frontal boundary on the
horizon looks like it should remain well west of the area even
through Wednesday...hence the optimism of stringing along the
better part of this weekend and next week with rain free
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active weather across all terminals today. A line of storms is
currently moving through central NY. AVP should start to see
some TSRA in the next hour or so, with restrictions down to at
least MVFR. IFR cannot be ruled out during stronger storms. All
other terminals should see rain showers with the possibility of
a passing thunderstorm and MVFR conditions. SYR and ITH have
the best chance to see a thunderstorm in the next few hours so
it was mentioned in the TAF. Once the front moves through and
the rain departs, high pressure builds in and brings a good
chance for widespread fog across the area, with IFR or worse
conditions at all terminals except SYR through sunrise. SYR
will be impacted by fog as well but at this time, MVFR
conditions are expected. Thursday morning will see conditions
return to VFR at most terminals except ELM and AVP...where the
MVFR cloud deck could hold on through the morning.

Mainly VFR this morning with the thunderstorm ending by 12Z at
KRME. Southwesterly winds 10 knots or less through the morning.

Restrictions are expected this afternoon with a band of showers
and thunderstorms. While timing uncertainty shows through 3
hour TEMPO groups currently the length of any actual
thunderstorms should be much shorter as we hone in on the actual
time of the storms. Southwest winds approaching 10 knots
outside of any thunderstorms.

After a break early this evening, additional restrictions are
likely to form in the form of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Winds shifting
to northwest.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Low chance for some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief restrictions
possible. IFR/MVFR ceilings slowly lifting through the morning
Thursday.

Sunday and Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MWG
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JTC/MWG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
413 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-162015-
Chenango-Otsego-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
413 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Some of
these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds, hail,
and locally heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall could cause localized
areas of urban and small stream flooding.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ057-151945-
Delaware NY-
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Delaware
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Colchester, or near Delhi, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walton, Delhi, Roxbury, Colchester, Hamden, Andes, Stamford,
Margaretville, Hobart and Fleischmanns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 7453 4220 7453 4217 7446 4215 7450
      4215 7453 4213 7454 4208 7516 4227 7516
      4243 7462 4236 7445 4233 7444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 260DEG 30KT 4221 7499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
318 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ056-057-062-PAZ039-040-152000-
Broome NY-Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-Susquehanna PA-Northern Wayne PA-
318 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Broome,
southwestern Delaware, west central Sullivan, eastern Susquehanna and
northern Wayne Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Milford, or 8 miles east of Montrose, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Callicoon, Susquehanna, Deposit, Susquehanna Depot, Harford,
Hallstead, Hancock, New Milford and Great Bend.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 83 and 89.
 Pennsylvania Interstate 81 between 217 and 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 7589 4200 7573 4210 7519 4177 7505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 249DEG 32KT 4184 7570

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

PAZ039-040-044-072-152045-
Southern Wayne PA-Susquehanna PA-Northern Wayne PA-Lackawanna PA-
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Susquehanna, northeastern Lackawanna and central Wayne Counties
through 445 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tompkinsville, or near Carbondale, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Archbald, Honesdale, Clifford, Jermyn, Forest City,
Mayfield, South Canaan, Waymart and Dalton.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Pennsylvania Interstate 81 between 197 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 7517 4154 7574 4164 7573 4164 7572
      4165 7573 4166 7573 4174 7514 4152 7513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 268DEG 22KT 4160 7563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

NYZ036-045-046-152100-
Otsego NY-Chenango NY-Madison NY-
408 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Otsego, southeastern
Madison and northeastern Chenango Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pittsfield, or 15 miles northwest of Oneonta, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Worcester, Middlefield, Hartwick, Maryland, Cooperstown, Edmeston,
Westville, Pittsfield, Springfield and Burlington.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 88 between 18 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4252 7472 4250 7477 4251 7484 4250 7488
      4248 7537 4278 7538 4285 7471 4283 7465
      4276 7467 4263 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 261DEG 43KT 4262 7525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
418 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

PAZ038-043-047-152100-
Wyoming PA-Bradford PA-Luzerne PA-
418 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Luzerne,
southeastern Bradford and southwestern Wyoming Counties through 500
PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Forkston to near Danville. Movement was east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hazleton, Muhlenberg, Berwick, Nanticoke, Plymouth, Vernon, West
Hazleton, Larksville, Lehman and Dallas.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 80 between 256 and 262.
 Pennsylvania Interstate 81 between 143 and 159.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 7621 4105 7623 4114 7623 4113 7627
      4118 7631 4134 7630 4154 7622 4155 7630
      4159 7630 4155 7595 4093 7593 4090 7603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 267DEG 22KT 4152 7614 4093 7659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
421 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH NEW BERLIN        42.53N 75.35W
09/15/2021                   OTSEGO             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&