Flash Flood Watch 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

364 
WGUS61 KBGM 230136
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
936 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-231300-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T0800Z-210923T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Steuben-Chemung-Bradford-
Including the cities of Elmira, Hornell, Sayre, Corning, and Towanda
936 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT THURSDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Chemung and Steuben. In 
  northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford.

* From 4 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ055-056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-072-231300-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T1200Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Equinunk, Montrose, Scranton, 
Tunkhannock, Damascus, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Owego, 
Honesdale, and Hallstead
936 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY 
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome and Tioga. In 
  northeast Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, 
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* From 8 AM EDT Thursday through late Thursday night.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-231300-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T1600Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
936 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Delaware and Sullivan. 
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TAC

156 
WGUS61 KBGM 230848
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
448 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-231700-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210923T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Steuben-Chemung-Bradford-
Including the cities of Corning, Hornell, Elmira, Sayre, 
and Towanda
448 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in central New York, Chemung 
  and Steuben. In northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford. 

* Through this evening.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate 
  to heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are 
  also possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are 
  forecast, with locally higher amounts possible. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of 
  water in low lying areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ055-056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-072-231700-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T1200Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Hallstead, 
Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, 
Wilkes-Barre, and Honesdale
448 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in central New York, Broome and 
  Tioga. In northeast Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, 
  Northern Wayne, Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming. 

* From 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate
  to heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are
  also possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
  forecast, with locally higher amounts possible, especially in
  higher terrain areas.
 
* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of 
  water in low lying areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-231700-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T1600Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, Monticello, and Milford
448 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in central New York, Delaware 
  and Sullivan. In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike. 

* From noon EDT today through late tonight

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate
  to heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are
  also possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
  forecast, with locally higher amounts possible, especially in
  higher terrain areas.
 
* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of 
  water in low lying areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

682 
WGUS61 KBGM 231450
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-232300-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210923T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Steuben-Chemung-Bradford-
Including the cities of Elmira, Hornell, Sayre, Corning, and Towanda
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Chemung and Steuben. In 
  northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford.

* Until 7 PM EDT this evening.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ055-056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-072-240000-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Equinunk, Montrose, Scranton, 
Tunkhannock, Damascus, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Owego, 
Honesdale, and Hallstead
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome and Tioga. In 
  northeast Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, 
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* Through late tonight.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-240000-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.210923T1600Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Delaware and Sullivan. 
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike.

* Through late tonight.

* A slow moving frontal boundary will bring a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MJM

441 
WGUS61 KBGM 231906
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-232015-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210923T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Steuben-Chemung-Bradford-
Including the cities of Elmira, Hornell, Sayre, Corning, and Towanda
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast 
Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York, 
Chemung and Steuben. In northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

NYZ055-232015-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tioga-
Including the cities of Owego and Waverly
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central New York, including 
the following area, Tioga has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. The heavy rainfall has ended.

$$

NYZ056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-072-240315-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broome-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Equinunk, Montrose, Scranton, Tunkhannock, 
Damascus, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Honesdale, and 
Hallstead
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome. In northeast 
  Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Southern Wayne, 
  Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* Until 1 AM EDT Friday.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-240315-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Delaware and Sullivan. 
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike.

* Through late tonight.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MJM

425 
WGUS61 KBGM 231944
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

PAZ043-047-232045-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wyoming-Luzerne-
Including the cities of Tunkhannock, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northeast Pennsylvania, 
including the following areas, Luzerne and Wyoming has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. The steady and heavy rain has now 
ended.

$$

NYZ056-PAZ039-040-044-072-240345-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broome-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Equinunk, Montrose, Scranton, Damascus, 
Binghamton, Honesdale, and Hallstead
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome. In northeast 
  Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Northern Wayne, Southern Wayne and 
  Susquehanna.

* Until 1 AM EDT Friday.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible. Rain should end by this 
  evening.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-240345-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Delaware and Sullivan. 
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike.

* Through late tonight.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MJM

078 
WGUS61 KBGM 240006
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
806 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NYZ056-PAZ039-044-240115-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broome-Susquehanna-Lackawanna-
Including the cities of Scranton, Hallstead, Binghamton, and Montrose
806 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast 
Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York, 
Broome. In northeast Pennsylvania, Lackawanna and Susquehanna has 
been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Rain has moved out of the area. 

$$

PAZ040-072-240500-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Wayne-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Damascus, Honesdale, and Equinunk
806 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast Pennsylvania, including the following 
  areas, Northern Wayne and Southern Wayne.

* Until 1 AM EDT Friday.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 
  inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts possible. Rain 
  will end this evening.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-240900-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
806 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Delaware and Sullivan. 
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Pike.

* Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* A slow moving frontal boundary is bringing a period of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are also 
  possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, 
  with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of roads and ponding of water in 
  low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TAC

047 
WGUS61 KBGM 240743
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
343 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

NYZ057-062-PAZ048-240845-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210924T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware-Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Walton, Milford, Delhi, and Monticello
343 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

MPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching frontal system will bring rain showers to the
area later today through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible Thursday and Thursday night, especially over
the Poconos and Catskills. Rain ends early Friday from west to
east with gradual clearing skies and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM Update...

Only minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF, Sky Cover and Temperatures
for the rest of today and tonight, based on latest trends and
CAMS. Overall, near term forecast remains on track, with
scattered showers this afternoon, mainly along and west of I-81.
Rainfall amounts should stay on the light side through this
evening, with amounts generally under 1/4 inch. Despite the
clouds, strong warm air advection will allow temperatures to
rise well into the 70s this afternoon for highs, and it will
feel a bit humid out there with dew points well into the 60s.
Breezy south-southeast winds 10-20 mph expected.

Will take a closer look at the incoming 12z guidance and CAMs to
decide if any flash-flood watches may be needed for our area as
the second round of heavier rain moves through late tonight
through Thursday night. There is a rather impressive low level
jet, PWAT anomaly and deep warm cloud layer (12-13k ft).

620 AM Update...
Adjusted PoPs through this afternoon to align better with
updated guidance. Most of the adjustments were increases
over the areas west of I-81...but also bumped up the chances
over the Mohawk Valley this afternoon. Also bumped temps up a
bit as lows did not drop as far as originally forecasted. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

400 AM Forecast...
The main weather impact for today will be gusty winds and rain
showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

High pressure over Nova Scotia is battling for position with an
approaching low pressure system.  The upper level trough is
currently moving through the Mississippi Valley and is expected to
form into a cutoff low over the Ohio Valley later this morning. The
strong high over Nova Scotia will slightly retreat to the
east...but is strong enough that it will stop the eastward
progression of the low and force it north into the Great Lakes by
Wednesday night. The eastward movement of the high will allow for a
couple shortwave troughs to move through our region ahead of the
approaching low. The first shortwave will bring rain showers this
morning...while the second wave will follow closely behind and bring
rain shower chances this afternoon.  A majority of the rain today
will be west of the I-81 corridor...but upslope flow from the
southerly winds will allow for a slight chance of rain showers to
occur across the Catskills and Poconos. Instability looks to be very
low across the area, with an area of weak CAPE trying to nose its
way into the SW portion of our area. Rain showers will be the
predominant weather but a clap of thunder cannot be ruled out over
this area during peak heating in the afternoon.

Southerly flow will continue to advect moist air into the CWA...with
PWATs around 1.80 west of I-81 today. Convection will be weak and
scattered, but multiple rounds of rain showers will allow for
western Steuben County to see .75 to 1 in...with amounts dropping as
you progress eastward.

Temperatures will be warmer than Tuesday, courtesy of strong warm
air advection across the region. Mid 70s are expected across the
area...with upper 70s in the Wyoming and Mohawk Valleys and low 70s
across hilltops. Because the high is not moving much and the low
slowly continues to progress to the east...isobars are piling
up...especially across our western counties. This will allow for
southerly winds gusting up to 25kts across the Finger Lakes and
gusts up to 20kts for the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
435 AM Update
A high amplitude trough currently over the mid-
Mississippi Valley will form a closed low over the Ohio Valley
tonight, then drift north into Michigan through Thursday, its
eastward progress blocked by a rex block off the coast of New
England the the Maritimes. A surface low will occlude over the
lower Great Lakes tonight, as a cold front pushes slowly towards
the Hudson Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. Deep
subtropical moisture will advect northwards ahead of this system
into the Mid Atlantic states, with PW values around 1.75 to
1.85 inches expected to nose into the region ahead of the front.

By Thursday morning, the main band of precip focused along the
cold front will be working from Western NY into the western
Finger Lakes. Meanwhile, ahead of the front, some lingering
drier air in the mid-levels will limit precip coverage and QPF
amounts, though lighter showers and plenty of cloud cover will
develop, particularly over the Catskills and Poconos, aided by
low-level SE flow. The main precip band will slowly shift to the
east through the day, and will be centered near the I-81
corridor by mid-afternoon, reaching the Catskills and Poconos by
evening.

While the incoming moisture transport will be quite strong,
aided by a 50-60 knot low level jet streak, it will also become
increasingly narrow as it heads further to the east. Despite the
slow movement, the residence time of heavier rainfall may be
limited to 3 to 6 hours. The lack of heavier "priming" rainfall
ahead of the main band will also be a limiting factor for flash
flooding concerns.

The main question at this point is whether or not we can somehow
manage to develop a few breaks in the cloud cover ahead of the
front and produce heavier convective showers over NE PA and into
the Catskills on Thursday. This seems unlikely with the Marine
Layer in place, and we'll be unlikely to tap into elevated
instability without some sort of trigger (again, ahead of the
front).

While moderate to heavy rainfall is likely in the main band
associated with the front, forecast QPF grids failed to yield
any 6 hour amounts that exceed 3 or even 6 hour Flash Flood
Guidance values, given all the aforementioned limiting factors.
Ensemble river forecasts from MARFC are also largely
unimpressive even with the heavier QPF members. Considering all
this, issuing a Flood Watch seemed premature. That said, the
areas of greatest concern (still falling short of a Watch so
far) would be over NE PA (particularly the Poconos) and into the
Catskills Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Expect the frontal precip band will have an embedded, low-topped
convective line, with some sporadic lightning. Can't completely
rule out a damaging wind threat with momentum transfer given the
very strong winds just aloft. With low level shear quite strong,
any breaks of sun could lead to isolated severe thunderstorms,
but it's a highly conditional risk given the expected cloud
cover.

Cooler and drier air will work in behind the front, with some
fog potential over western areas by Friday morning. Seasonably
cool temperatures, with highs in the 60s, look to be on tap for
Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
435 AM Update

The next shortwave trough dropping across the area looks to
arrive a little later, resulting in a more favorable forecast
for Saturday. This next system will be moisture-starved as it
moves across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
just spotty showers possible.

High pressure will build across the central Appalachians early
next week, but westerly flow and cool advection on Sunday could
bring some lake-effect clouds and spotty showers across northern
areas. A better chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms
looks to be lurking on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

130 PM Update

A mix of VFR and occasional MVFR conditions will continue for
the rest of the afternoon and evening hours, as some rain
showers move north through the region. The highest chance to see
MVFR restrictions through this evening will be at ELM, ITH, BGM
and AVP which is also where rain shower chances are greatest.

May see a brief break in the clouds for a return to mainly VFR
conditions at BGM, ITH, AVP & SYR late evening into the first
portion of the overnight (03z to 09z Thursday).

After this expect widespread MVFR restrictions, falling to fuel
alternate and IFR Thursday morning as a period of steadier and
even heavy rain slowly presses east across the area. This steady
rain should begin between 10-12z Thursday at ELM, 13z at ITH,
15z at SYR/BGM/AVP and around or just after 18z at RME. There
could also be some embedded thunder, but not enough confidence
to put in the TAFs at this time. VSBYs could occasionally fall
under 2SM in the steady to heavy rainfall. Looking further ahead
the rain should slowly taper off and end from west to east late
Thursday afternoon and evening, lingering into the first half of
the overnight period at RME.

Surface winds will be east-southeast the rest of today into
tonight between 8-15 kts, with occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts
possible. Winds gradually turn variable then southwest later on
Thursday, decreasing under 10 kts.

Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) is also expected later this evening
and through the overnight period; with southeast winds around
40-50 kts at 2k ft AGL.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and night...Frontal system brings a
prolonged period of steady rain and thunder, and associated
restrictions. LLWS should end from west to east by evening.

Friday...early morning fog possible, the sunny and VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, apart from restrictions
in valley fog at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
501 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-230915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
501 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A slow-moving cold front is forecast to bring a soaking rain to the
area as it moves through Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common, with locally higher amounts.
While widespread flash flooding is not expected, some minor flooding
could occur in poor drainage areas. A few thunderstorms both ahead
of, and along the cold front, could produce damaging wind gusts as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-230915-
Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
501 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A slow-moving cold front is forecast to bring a soaking rain to the
area as it moves through Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be common, highest in parts of the
Catskills and Poconos. Isolated higher amounts will be possible along
south and east-facing mountain slopes. Minor flooding could occur,
especially in the higher terrain and in poor drainage areas. A few
thunderstorms both ahead of, and along the cold front, could produce
damaging wind gusts as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.