Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1102 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Radar and surface observations are picking up on some showers
currently moving through the Minnesota and Iowa border region. As
the system continues to slide off to the southeast the precipitation
chances diminish later tonight. Not expecting much if any
accumulations for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Mainly
just expecting only a trace to a couple hundreths.

Thunderstorm chances perk up tomorrow as a shortwave trough pushes
southeastward from southern Canada through Minnesota into the local
area. This timing has been slightly delayed from what has been
previously depicted from model guidance. Any storm development may
be closer to late afternoon or early evening as the associated
surface cold front sweeps through the region. Just expecting general
thunderstorms at this time as severe chances look low. MUCAPE values
in excess of 2000 J/kg are anticipated remain in northern Wisconsin
as the wave swings through. This pool of instability is currently
not well aligned with a supportive shear field. Values of 40 knots
of 0-6 km deep layer shear look to reside over northeast Iowa. This
would be well south of the greatest region of instability. Any
storms that do develop in this disjointed area between the better
shear and instability regions could produce some sub-severe hail and
strong wind gusts.

In wake of the passing front, winds become more northerly with maybe
some improvements to the smokey/hazy conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

High pressure at the surface and northerly flow aloft look to keep
the region dry and cooler/pleasant into the beginning of next
week. Lows will be generally in the 50s although some mid to upper
40s are anticipated in portions of Wisconsin Sunday night, which
looks to be the coolest night given close proximity to the surface
high. Highs look to be mainly in the 70s.

Some small precipitation chances are focused across our far
northern service area on Tuesday, as a back door front may be
nearby although a considerable amount of uncertainty exists with
the boundary and location/placement.

Otherwise, temperatures look to warm back up near to eventually
above normal mid to late next week with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s, as the surface to mid level flow turns southerly.
Rain chances also return toward the end of the period with
increasing moisture and a front potentially sagging down into
portions of the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Trended the forecast at the airfields toward more fog with
clearing skies and calm winds. Confidence is growing in IFR fog
and thus have updated the KLSE TAF to include IFR fog in the
valley and the KRST TAF will likely also IFR fog inclusion. Will
monitor observations for a bit yet to confirm trends.

Fog will dissipate quickly in the morning and then VFR conditions
are expected through the day. A front moves through in the
afternoon. Some storms are expected along the front however these
should be isolated. Will need to monitor this trend. For now,
handled this with VCSH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Peters
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Baumgardt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
311 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-311100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
311 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. Smoke will reduce
air quality today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
127 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

IAZ008>011-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-041-042-053-
054-310930-
Chickasaw-Fayette-Mitchell-Clayton-Winneshiek-Howard-Allamakee-
Wabasha-Fillmore-Winona-Houston-Olmsted-Dodge-Mower-Buffalo-Crawford-
Jackson-Vernon-Trempealeau-La Crosse-Monroe-
127 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO FORM...

Some dense fog was starting to appear over parts of the region and
this fog may thicken up before sunrise.

If you have travel plans early this morning, be aware of reductions
in visibility, reduce your speed, and be extra alert around
driveways and highway intersections where cross traffic might not
see your approach.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9186 4434 9137 4442 9033
      4372 9040 4355 9067 4313 9074 4310 9081
      4299 9116 4308 9208 4321 9255 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 240DEG 49KT 4423 9207

Shea