Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS La Crosse, WI

362 
WGUS83 KARX 080348
FLSARX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1048 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

WIC123-080600-
/O.CON.KARX.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210808T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vernon WI-
1048 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR 
NORTHERN VERNON COUNTY...

At 1048 PM CDT, emergency management reported ongoing flooding 
across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. 
Additional rainfall is likely through the night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 9039 4355 9040 4361 9127 4373 9126

$$

Rieck

712 
WGUS83 KARX 080557
FLSARX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1257 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021

WIC123-080607-
/O.EXP.KARX.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210808T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vernon WI-
1257 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN VERNON 
COUNTY...

Flood waters continue to recede and flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. However, additional thunderstorms are expected 
early this morning that could lead to renewed flooding if heavy rain 
persists for any length of time. Be alert and heed any remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 4373 9039 4355 9040 4361 9127 4373 9126

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

TODAY...Current satellite imagery places the meridionally
elongated positively tilter upper-level trough over eastern WY
into western NE. Primary convection has been focused downstream of
the trough axis from eastern NE into northern IA and southeastern
MN/western WI. This morning's lingering precipitation has
appeared to temporarily halt northerly progression of the surface
frontal boundary based on repeated post frontal convection firing
in northeast IA. If/when the warm front progresses, low-level
moisture transport concentrates into central MN and western WI.
Similarly, the NAM & RAP take higher CAPE values further north
than the GFS/ECMWF based on the warm sector inclusion. The
concavity of the hodographs within the warm sector increase into
the afternoon favoring right moving supercells containing max
helicity values ~375 m2/s2. RAP 0-3km shear has increased for this
afternoon to >40 kts with 0-6km shear remaining at 40-50kts. A
few storms could produce large hail and localized flooding with
precipitable water values nearing 2.00 inches. Isolated tornadic
activity also remains possible, dependent on frontal set up and
the ability of elevated convection to become surface-based.

TONIGHT...The upper level trough continues it's eastward
progression overnight, bringing our forecast area into a primary
area for synoptic ascent. Surface boundaries are forecasted to
continue their north and eastward progression associated with the
upper & mid-level forcing. Moisture transport increases across
central IA into SE MN near midnight local time tonight.
Precipitable water values increase to >2 inches along this
moisture transport axis, progressing eastward in the early morning
hours directed towards central WI. Convective allowing models
continue evening convection through the overnight hours, with the
HRRR and NAM4km including a training area of higher reflectivity
in our forecast area. While the exact location of localized heavy
rainfall remains more variable, the synoptic-level variables such
as absolute vorticity advection remain favorable for increased
convective activity in the early morning tomorrow. The combination
of synoptic-level forcing with such high precipitable water
values can result in anomalous precipitation in the early morning
hours. Currently, RAP shear remains 20-30kt at 0-3kt and minimal
0-6km shear indicating smalled likelihood for organized convection
at this time. Will still be important to keep an eye on set up
overnight for the possibility of storms repeating over the same
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Water vapor satellite today indicates the approaching long wave
trough extended from the wester Dakotas into northern Colorado and
was working east toward the region. The pattern ahead of this
trough continues to look to be very messy with numerous short wave
troughs out ahead of and embedded in the long wave trough.
Depending on how tonight's convection evolves, will have an impact
on where the boundaries will set up for Sunday. At this time,
there is good agreement from the hi-res meso-scale models that the
convection that develops tonight should exit/end early Sunday
morning. The attention then looks to be focused on a stronger
short wave trough embedded in the equatorial end of the long wave
trough that should be swinging across far southern Iowa and
Missouri in the late afternoon and evening and translating into
Illinois overnight. The low level moisture transport axis will
gradually shift east ahead of the short wave trough and looks to
briefly be focused into southwest Wisconsin in the late afternoon
before shifting farther south closer to the main short wave
trough. With only around 25 knots of shear in the 0- 3 km layer,
would not expect much potential for hail or winds with the
activity that develops in the moisture transport axis across the
eastern parts of the area. The bigger threat will be for heavy
rains with warm cloud depths in the 3.5 to 4 km range and
precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches. This activity
should primarily be southeast of where most of the
convection/heavy rains are expected to occur tonight. Thus not
anticipating the need for a flash flood watch at this time, but of
course, that can change based on what happens during the
overnight.

Attention will then quickly turn to Tuesday with the next system
coming in and the potential for severe weather. The system
currently just off the western British Columbia coast will quickly
rotate across the northern Rockies and should be entering the
Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon. This system looks to have a
rather potent short wave trough embedded in the equatorial end of
the long wave trough that will be entering western Minnesota by
late in the day. In the low levels, the surface boundary looks to
possibly be a bit out ahead of the upper level support but an area
of low pressure could be moving along the front and be over or
near the local area. This type of set up looks to put the best
deep layer shear behind the front but there could still be around
30 knots in the 0-3 km layer over the boundary. Ample CAPE looks
to be in place ahead of the front with the possibility of 3000+
J/kg MLCAPE. Some signals of enhanced 0-1km shear along a warm
front extending from western Wisconsin into the southeastern part
of the state. These signals would suggest that all severe threats
could be in play Tuesday afternoon along with the potential for
another heavy rain episode. The low level moisture transport looks
to be focused into the warm front with warm cloud depths of 3.5
to 4 km and precipitable water amounts again around 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

As of now, all the convection has moved off to the east of both
airports. More convection is expected to develop later this
evening into the overnight. The front has remained nearly
stationary and will not move much overnight. As the low level jet
ramps up overnight and intersects the front, a east/west line of
convection is expected to form in the Interstate 90 corridor. This
will likely impact both airports with MVFR/IFR conditions. This
should hopefully end around sunrise with VFR conditions developing
by mid to late morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WIZ029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ079-087-088-095-
     096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for IAZ010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAR
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
249 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-081200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
249 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms are likely through tonight with a few
severe storms possible. The main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. An isolated tornado is
also possible. Localized flooding could occur if storms repeat
over the same area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night. A
few storms could produce strong winds and hail. Any storms also
will be capable of producing torrential rainfall.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue for most of next week.
At this time it is too early to discern any severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed at times this weekend.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
501 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SW MUSCODA            43.15N 90.50W
08/07/2021                   GRANT              WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MUSCODA FIRE DEPT OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD
            NEAR RIDGE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COON VALLEY             43.70N 91.01W
08/07/2021                   VERNON             WI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
511 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COON VALLEY             43.70N 91.01W
08/07/2021                   VERNON             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COON CREEK ABOUT 2 FEET FROM THE BOTTOM OF
            THE U.S. HIGHWAY 14 BRIDGE IN COON VALLEY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
515 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW BLUE RIVER        43.12N 90.61W
08/07/2021                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARNS DOWN AND A HOUSE DAMAGED SOUTH OF BLUE
            RIVER. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
553 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW SAINT JOSEPH      43.76N 91.06W
08/07/2021  M5.21 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   PUBLIC

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             KENDALL                 43.79N 90.37W
08/07/2021  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            KENDALL FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS QUARTER
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

JAR