Winter Weather Advisory 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

093 
WWUS43 KAPX 190222
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

MIZ086-087-191030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.210119T0500Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 9 inches, with the highest totals expected along and 
  north of M-28.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ016-017-191030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.210119T0300Z-210120T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  2 to 5 inches, with the highest totals along and south of M-68.

* WHERE...Emmet and Cheboygan Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ020>022-099-191030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.210119T0300Z-210120T1200Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, 
and Charlevoix
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ026>028-191030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.210119T0500Z-210120T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Traverse City, Kalkaska, and Grayling
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts possible.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

369 
WWUS43 KAPX 190904
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

MIZ086-087-191700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Where snow showers persist, additional
  snow accumulations through tonight of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-017-191700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Where snow showers persist, storm total
  snow accumulations through early evening of 2 to 5 inches. 

* WHERE...Cheboygan and Emmet Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020>022-099-191700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, 
and Charlevoix
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Where snow showers persist, additional
  snow accumulations through tonight of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ026>028-191700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Traverse City, Kalkaska, and Grayling
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Where snow showers persist, additional
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

300 
WWUS43 KAPX 191516
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021


MIZ086-087-192330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  4 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-017-192330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 2
  inches.

* WHERE...Cheboygan and Emmet Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020>022-099-192330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, 
and Charlevoix
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  4 inches.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ026>028-192330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Traverse City, Kalkaska, and Grayling
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

003 
WWUS43 KAPX 192047
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021


MIZ020-026-192200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-
Including the cities of Northport and Traverse City
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Only an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected tonight, 
with locally higher amounts possible, especially near 
Williamsburg. 

$$

MIZ016-017-200500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T0500Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Southern Cheboygan and Emmet Counties, including 
  Petoskey, Indian River, and Wolverine.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-087-201000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties. The
  highest accumulations tonight are expected near and west of
  Brimley, and near and north of M-28.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-099-201000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ027-028-201000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Kalkaska and Grayling
347 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

JZ

079 
WWUS43 KAPX 200249
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
949 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

MIZ086-087-201100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
949 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-017-200500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T0500Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
949 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to one inch.

* WHERE...Cheboygan and Emmet Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-099-201100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix
949 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ027-028-201100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Kalkaska and Grayling
949 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches.

* WHERE...Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

978 
WWUS43 KAPX 200534
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1234 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021


MIZ086-087-201200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
1234 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-099-201200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix
1234 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ027-028-201200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Kalkaska-Crawford-
Including the cities of Kalkaska and Grayling
1234 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches.

* WHERE...Kalkaska and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

741 
WWUS43 KAPX 200838
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021


MIZ021-022-027-028-086-087-099-200945-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210120T1200Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-Crawford-Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, Kalkaska, Grayling, 
Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, 
Kinross, Sugar Island, and Charlevoix
338 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Some lighter lake effect snow showers will continue to impact
parts of eastern Upper and northern Lower michigan this morning. 
Only minor new accumulations are anticipated. Therefore the
advisory is cancelled.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1242 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Lake effect snow continues to pinwheel east off northern Lake
Michigan this morning. Light winds and limited inversion heights
(local 12 sounding had sub 4kft boundary layer) has keep
organization and intensity very light. Expect this same idea to
continue to rest of the day, with just some flurries away from the
favored lake effect areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...Increasing lake effect snow tonight onward...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal today. Accumulating lake
effect snow for the snowbelts tonight through Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals
large scale troughing encompassing a large portion of the CONUS,
getting reinforced by sharp short-wave ridging building along the
west coast. One embedded wave is progressing out of the Ohio
Valley toward the mid Atlantic coast with subtle short-wave
ridging across the western lakes region for the moment. Weakening
low level cyclonic flow/lake aggregate troughing still lingers
across the western lakes. But resultant persistent light snow
across the region appears to finally be winding down.

Upstream, additional short-wave energy and substantially colder
air is loading up across central Canada...poised to slide down
into the northern lakes region over the next few days and sure to
bring accumulating lake effect snow.

Details: Lake aggregate troughing is expected to linger across
the region today. Associated low level convergence combined with
modest over lake instability and daytime heating will likely
bring another expansion of light snow showers across northern
Lower Michigan through the day, along with minor (under and inch)
type snow accumulations. Otherwise, not a bad day overall...by mid
January standards...with lighter winds, and daytime temperatures
on par with normal readings.

Starts to get a lot more interesting tonight and heading into
Tuesday. Aforementioned short-wave energy and pocket of colder air
(mid to high negative teens H8 temps by Tuesday morning) dives
into the northern lakes region later tonight, spinning up stronger
surface low pressure over Lake Superior along the lake aggregate
trough. Bufkit forecast soundings reveal what you'd expect in
response...substantially increasing inversion heights/convective
depth and lake induced CAPE values climbing to near 500 J/KG
overnight. This should gin up some decent lake effect snow showers
off Lakes Superior and Michigan and snow accumulations already pushing
into advisory criteria in the snow belts by Tuesday morning.

Decent lake snow showers continue Tuesday into Tuesday night (see
below) and it appears we will be into solid winter weather
advisory headline criteria from later tonight through Tuesday
night...particularly with gustier W/NW winds and some blowing snow
developing. But will let day shift make final tweaks and headline
decisions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake effect/enhanced
snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across the
traditional snowbelt locations of eastern upper and northwest lower
Michigan. Maybe some freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday?

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad troughing will cover the eastern CONUS with a few separate
waves pinwheeling through the forecast area...producing synoptic
snow and enhanced by the lakes at times with 850mb temperatures of
-15 to -20C. A weak surface low will depart east of the forecast
area...setting up the beginning of this more active period. The cold
west-northwest to northwesterly flow will produce lake effect snow,
with the highest accumulations expected in the normal snowbelts of
northwest lower and eastern upper. These snows will be enhanced at
times with another upper wave and some deeper moisture moving
overhead Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Forecast soundings
show inversion heights of just over 5kft with best moisture in the
DGZ. Winds will become a bit gusty Tuesday as the pressure gradient
tightens with the aforementioned weak surface cyclone departing to
our east and another wave approaches from the west...these gusty
winds will further exacerbate the snow, making for reduced
visibility and snow blowing across roadways. Winds back to more
southwesterly Wednesday as heights finally begin to increase and the
broad cyclonic flow is replaced with ridging. Although the lake
effect/enhanced snows will become greatly diminished there will be a
chance of an extended period of time with freezing drizzle either
mixing in or completely changing to freezing drizzle with heights
increasing aloft ahead of the approaching wave...and surface
temperatures remaining well below freezing Wednesday
afternoon/evening into Thursday. Looking at CIPS analogues and some
ensemble data along with what we came up with in our forecast
package tonight...wouldn't doubt some of our favorable areas seeing
localized heavier amounts of 8"+ in northwest lower and eastern
upper by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor the
ever-changing weather and update accordingly. Temperatures will be
normal to near normal for this time of the year, with highs in the
20s to near freezing and lows in the single digits and teens above
zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring late week system.

Confidence continues to increase in a relatively strong clipper
system moving across the far northern Great Lakes in the late
Thursday/Friday timeframe. A shortwave and associated speed max is
expected to dig down from western Canada into Midwest by Thursday,
providing strong forcing aloft to support the deepening of this
aforementioned clipper system as it slides into the region.
Precipitation on the front end of the system is expected to be
confined to the northern half of the area, while the main forecast
concern is expected to be the lake effect snow potential on the
backside. Details will become more clear as the week progresses.
Otherwise, temperatures will cool back down into the low to mid 20s
with cold advection behind the passing cyclone. Overnight lows next
weekend may drop back down into the single digits across northern
Michigan as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Lake effect snows will be on the increase tonight into Tuesday as
colder air cuts across the area. Heaviest and most organized snows
expected to target TVC, PLN, and MBL. MVFR and periodic IFR
conditions should be expected at those terminal sites. Slightly
better conditions at APN.

In addition to the snow showers, gustier W/NW winds develop
tonight and persist through Tuesday, perhaps producing some
blowing snow at times.

Snowfall totals of a few inches expected by Tuesday evening at
those western taf locations. Snow to liquid ratios will be
relatively high...greater than 15 to 1.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Turning a bit more active for the next few days. Gusty west to
northwest winds develop later tonight and persist through Tuesday
night. Will be hoisting small craft advisories for many Lake
Michigan and Huron nearshore areas. Additionally, expect lake
effect snow showers to increase substantially on the lakes tonight
through Tuesday night, along with some freezing spray.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to midnight EST
     Tuesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...BA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1050 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-191600-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1050 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Lake effect snow showers are expected to increase across northern
Michigan tonight bringing accumulating snow to the snowbelts of
eastern Upper and northwest Lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating lake effect snow continues Tuesday into Wednesday,
across the snowbelts of eastern Upper and northwest Lower
Michigan. Gusty winds will also produce some blowing and drifting
snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-191600-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1050 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&