Winter Weather Advisory 29, NWS Gaylord, MI

899 
WWUS43 KAPX 061508
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MIZ086-087-062315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with
  locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ088-095>097-062315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Southeast Chippewa-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Detour Village, Goetzville, 
Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, 
Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches 
  with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 
  45 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Mackinac, Mackinac 
  Island/Bois Blanc Island and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-027-028-099-062315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, Kalkaska, Grayling, 
and Charlevoix
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with
  locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, Crawford and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-029-098-062315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Oscoda-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Mio, and St. James
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with
  locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031>034-062315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with
  locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

927 
WWUS43 KAPX 062034
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MIZ086-087-070445-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches with
  locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ088-095>097-070300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Southeast Chippewa-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Detour Village, Goetzville, 
Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, 
Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Mackinac, Mackinac 
  Island/Bois Blanc Island and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-027-028-099-070445-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, Kalkaska, Grayling, 
and Charlevoix
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches 
  with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, Crawford and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-029-098-070300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Oscoda-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Mio, and St. James
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches
  with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 
  45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031>034-070300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
334 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches
  with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

668 
WWUS43 KAPX 070244
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
944 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MIZ016>018-020-023-025-026-029-031>034-088-095>098-070345-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0300Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Montmorency-Benzie-
Grand Traverse-Oscoda-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Southeast Chippewa-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Northport, Atlanta, Frankfort, Traverse City, Mio, Manistee, 
Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, Detour Village, Goetzville, 
Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, 
Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James
944 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

MIZ086-087-070900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
944 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ021-022-027-028-099-070900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-211207T0900Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, Kalkaska, Grayling, 
and Charlevoix
944 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, Crawford and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1159 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

Widespread moderate to heavy snow event (6+ inches for most)
wrapping up across the Northwoods as moist conveyor belt exits off
to our east and mid level dry slot spreads in behind it. Mostly
light snow found across the area, with a band of mixed
precipitation tied to that departing moist conveyor belt down near
Saginaw Bay. Dry slot will continue to expand northeast across
the area through the overnight as low pressure slides across
southern Lake Superior. Widespread snow will be last to exit
eastern upper Michigan, where another inch or two is possible by
morning. Will let current headlines remain as roads are snow
covered and very slick. Taking a look at tomorrow...expect winds
to swing around quickly to the west and northwest and become
increasingly gusty behind eastward racing cold front. Lake snows
will develop in our traditional snowbelt locations, likely
producing at least a few inches of accumulation and areas of
significantly reduced visibilities in falling and blowing snow. No
doubt headlines will be needed for this portion of the event.
After coordination with both GRR and DTX, have decided to let
ongoing headlines run their course before issuing additional.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 252 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow, heavy at times,
and gusty winds continue, along with some mixed precip potential
tonight all leading to continued hazardous travel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-defined shortwave embedded in larger
scale parent troughing is currently sitting atop nearly vertically
stacked surface low pressure across central/northwest MN this
afternoon. Strongly forced warm advection snow continues across
northern Michigan, along with gusty east-southeast winds. The upper
wave will dig across the northern Great Lakes this evening into
tonight, taking on more of a negative tilt, with attendant sfc low
pressure expected to trek across northern WI to vicinity eastern
upper by 12z Monday. As a result, eventual dry slotting across much
of northern MI will likely bring an end to the steadiest
precipitation. However, winds begin to veer more southwesterly very
late tonight with further veering expected during the day Monday on
the backside of the system (along with strong cold air advection),
only to renew lake effect snow chances (talked about in more detail
in the short term forecast section below).

Primary Forecast Concerns: Additional snow amounts and potential for
mixed precipitation tonight as the best moisture/forcing strip off
to the east.

First off, went ahead and upgraded a handful of counties across
northern lower to winter storm warnings back around 18z. Despite
forecast snow accums on the border of warning criteria through this
evening, a wetter variety snow, very heavy snowfall rates, and gusty
winds leading to blowing snow/further reduced visibility leading to
difficult, if not downright dangerous travel, tipped the scales.

Otherwise, widespread snow, heavy at times, is expected to continue
across northern Michigan this afternoon into this evening in
response to frontogenesis and strengthening isentropic ascent.
Localized snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr certainly feasible with highest
storm total accums expected along and north of M-72 of 6-10"+,
somewhat lower amounts south of there. Forecast model soundings
continue to suggest the deepest moisture begins to strip away to the
northeast by mid-late evening with a resultant diminishing trend to
snow (taking longer across eastern upper). As this occurs, low-level
moisture may remain abundant enough for patchy freezing drizzle
across parts of northern lower...potentially resulting in a glaze of
ice in some locations. Given this would be falling on top of fresh
now, not really expecting it to add to the already impactful winter
weather. Overnight temps expected to remain fairly steady from the
upper 20s to low 30s.

Low-level winds late tonight veer more southwesterly with time
(evening WNW Monday), and combined with cooler air beginning to pour
back into the area on the backside of this system, suppose it's
conceivable that some lake induced snow showers develop off of Lake
Michigan between 09-12z, but by and large, the lake effect show
behind this system will occur during the day Monday.

With respect to headlines, left the timing as is figuring we'll let
this system run it's course. However, fully expect another round of
headlines will be needed for Monday's LES, especially in those west-
northwest favored snow belts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snow and
gusty winds Monday into Monday night...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This morning's surface analysis shows the lovely low pressure system
already bringing snow to the region as of midday. Actual low
pressure center is in SE North Dakota, on the cusp of a little more
potent of a niblet in the northern stream, in the broader troughing
across the northern CONUS east of the Rockies. Occluded front
extends SSE from the surface low to a triple point in western Iowa;
warm front extends more or less east-ish from there into Kentucky,
while a cold front extends back through southern Nebraska back
through Wyoming, with another low pressure in southern Montana. An
additional cold front has been analyzed to the north of the low,
across the southern Canadian prairies, associated with the thermal
gradient aloft and cold advection into the backside of the low. High
pressure remains across the eastern US attm...allowing for a tighter
pressure gradient across the Great Lakes.

By Monday morning...troughing will have deepened/amplified as it
crosses through the Midwest...becoming more negatively tilted with
time...as aforementioned niblet ejects out of the Great Lakes just
ahead of the rest of the trough early Monday. This trough axis will
continue to swing out through the day Monday...with trough energy
digging again into the Upper Midwest through Tuesday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Monday...lake effect snow through
the period, particularly Monday into Monday night...

By Monday morning...the surface trough itself should be well to our
east...with a secondary cold front dropping in from the north
through the day. Given the occluded surface low more or less over
the Eastern UP by 12z Monday...will look for a touch more
southwesterly component to the winds until the secondary front drops
in, which will ultimately switch things to a more northwest to west-
northwest flow regime through the day...perhaps even as early as
midday/early afternoon Monday. The pressure gradient behind the
surface system will be even tighter than that ahead of it...so will
look for Monday to be even windier than today. Fortunately for us
here on the east side of Lake Michigan...looks like the pressure
gradient will slightly weaken with time as the system lifts out,
compared to upstream, but will still look for it to be quite windy
nonetheless. 1000mb geostrophic winds of around 60-70+kts Monday
afternoon over Northern Michigan suggests we could easily have 20kt
surface winds with gales over the lakes...perhaps even stronger than
that right behind the secondary front along the Lake Michigan
shoreline. Given cold advection, will expect some of the stronger
winds aloft (e.g., potentially 40-50kts around 850mb) to pretty
easily mix down. Additionally...with a rapid pressure change
along/behind the secondary front Monday...would not be surprised to
see even stronger gusts than that as it passes through.

Next concern going forward will be the snow/lake effect on Monday
along and behind the system. Right along/ahead of the front Monday
morning...looks like we could see some pretty decent instability (o-
3km CAPE ~50+ J/kg) across northern Lake Michigan, which shifts
eastward with time along the front. This appears to be largely
collocated with sufficient boundary layer moisture and low-level
convergence along the front...suggesting we could see a burst of
heavier snow (potentially with some southwest flow lake enhancement)
Monday morning/midday in the vicinity of the Straits/Tip of the
Mitt/Mackinac county...which would shift eastward with time as the
front departs. Behind this...as temps aloft fall sufficiently for
overlake instability to develop...will look for lake effect to
develop Monday afternoon, as we've been advertising the last couple
days or so. There are some signals that we could see a decent WNW
flow band impact Charlevoix/Antrim/Kalkaska counties...and would not
be surprised to see this band reach even further inland, given the
stronger winds we're expecting Monday. Other points southward along
our Lake Michigan coastline counties should be impacted as
well...with areas downwind of Lake Superior/Whitefish Bay similarly
impacted...though signals attm aren't quite as strong there as for
our typical NW flow region near Grand Traverse Bay (which may have a
touch of a Lake Superior connection), at least through the daylight
hours. Signals for the UP are a little stronger Monday evening as
low level convergence briefly increases in the typical NW flow
areas. Additionally..any lingering p-type issues associated with the
warm sector should quickly depart through the day.

Mid level and boundary layer moisture should remain sufficient for
lake effect through much of the day Monday, and into Monday night as
well...though deeper moisture looks to depart with time Monday
night. That being said...model derived soundings seem to suggest
some drying in the mid levels behind the front Monday
afternoon...which would act to decrease inversion heights as we go
through the day. (Inversion heights early in the day will be up
around an impressive 15kft before the synoptic moisture aloft begins
to strip out.) Even so...as we cool off through the day with that
cold advection...will look for the vertical temperature profile to
shift so that a greater portion of the saturated layer remains in
the DGZ (-12 to -18 C), which could suggest some better snow to
liquid ratios (though the strong winds will likely fracture flakes
to some extent...ultimately ending up with potential for a wash on
SLRs. We'll see...).

Going into Tuesday...as winds back a little more westerly/
southwesterly with time...may have to watch out for some kind of
convergence band to develop along the eastern shore of Lake
Superior early/midday, perhaps extending into the Soo area, but
will have to keep an eye on this going forward. West flow lake
effect will otherwise largely be the norm Tuesday and even into
Tuesday night, despite surface high pressure to our south, though
it should not be as intense as Monday. Looks like we may start to
get in on a little synoptic moisture through the day as the next
shortwave upstream moves in. Better synoptic moisture looks to
move in overnight Tuesday night towards Wednesday morning, as the
trough axis to our west draws a little nearer...along with some
additional upper level jet energy diving through the flow. This
should bring a return to somewhat more synoptic-based snow going
into the end of this short term period Tuesday night. We could see
an east-west band of lake effect/enhancement over Lake Superior
Tuesday night, which we'd have to watch in case it fluctuates
onshore. Thermal profiles Tuesday into Tuesday night should remain
more DGZ-centric in the low levels, given that it will be
unseasonably cold (probably even colder than our normal lows (low
to mid 20s) for highs Tuesday)... suggesting that what snow falls
may have better snow to liquid ratios and may be able to pile up a
little quicker...particularly given lighter winds with this
system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

Starting with the 500MB wave pattern...The EURO shows relatively
weak troughing moving through the Great Lakes during the course of
Wednesday.  The pattern then begins to flatten out early
Thursday...then growing increasingly troughy into the end of the
work week. Saturday night shows a deepening trough over
MIMAL...shifting east and strengthening...sending the 850mb -8
isotherm as far south as Tennessee...as -16 grazes Lake Superior. As
far as the GFS...ditto the above for the first half of the forecast
period...but more aggressive (speed wise) and less impressive
(strength and cold wise) with the weekend activity than the EURO.

Drilling down closer to the surface...what the above spells out for
Wednesday is an unimpressive chance for precipitation. A better shot
on Thursday night into Friday...as a surface low in northern Ontario
swings a frontal boundary through the great lakes...likely snow or
snow/rain mix.  As far as the more impressive troughing expected for
the weekend...there are a couple waves of energy that will ride
along that coaster. The first surface low, Friday night to Saturday
morning, tracks from Indianapolis to Buffalo, keeping the best
precip along our southern part (and mainly south) of the
CWA...though some wrap around enhancement off Lake Huron can't be
ruled out. Then the second surface low (deeper and more impressive)
lifts from Alabama, through the Virginia's, then rides the coast all
the way up to Maine and could threaten the first bonafide Nor'easter
for New England this season. What does that mean for Northern
Michigan? Nuthin'. Though with some colder air in place and some
northwest flow over the lakes...we could see the requisite LES
activity.  Of course making such deterministic calls this far out is
just plain silly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

Still looking at MVFR to even IFR cigs this morning, but
visibilities will improve as heaviest snow has exited. Passing
front brings gusty west and northwest winds today...with frequent
gusts in excess of 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers will
develop, at times targeting our western taf locations for lower
cigs and visibilities. Will also likely see some blowing snow.
Additional snow amounts today into this evening will likely be a
few inches at those western taf locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

Periods of gusty winds continue this afternoon through early this
week. Initial east-southeast gustiness this afternoon diminishes
somewhat overnight as winds veer more southwesterly with time before
veering further to the west-northwest on Monday...becoming strong
once again. See no reason to alter the going gale warnings through
Monday...again, despite the brief lull across the area tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MG
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1201 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-061200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1201 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

While additional snow and ice amounts will remain light tonight,
most roads will remain snow covered and very slippery.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating lake effect snow and blowing snow are expected
Monday into early Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-061200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1201 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected across all nearshore zones
tonight. Please see the latest nearshore forecasts and marine
headlines for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Gale force wind gusts are expected to continue across all nearshore
zones Monday. Please see the latest nearshore forecasts and
marine headlines for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SNOW             FAIRVIEW                44.72N 84.05W
12/05/2021  M8.0 INCH        OSCODA             MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SNOW             LEWISTON                44.88N 84.32W
12/05/2021  M9.0 INCH        MONTMORENCY        MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     SNOW             3 NW BOYNE CITY         45.21N 85.00W
12/05/2021  M8.5 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
922 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             3 W SUTTONS BAY         44.98N 85.71W
12/05/2021  M8.7 INCH        LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            14 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     SNOW             ECKERMAN                46.37N 85.03W
12/05/2021  M5.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     SNOW             5 SE LEWISTON           44.83N 84.25W
12/05/2021  M11.5 INCH       OSCODA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&