Gale Watch 15, NWS Gaylord, MI

283 
WHUS73 KAPX 310152
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

LHZ347-348-311000-
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0015.211031T2000Z-211101T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0020.211031T2000Z-211101T0700Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-311000-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0102.211031T1800Z-211101T1500Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-311000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0102.211031T1400Z-211101T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-311000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0102.211031T1400Z-211101T1500Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-311000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0102.211031T1600Z-211101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and St Ignace to False Detour 
  Channel.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Forecast was in pretty good shape, but made a few tweaks through
tonight. Strong low-level inversion and overall slow eastward
movement of low pressure system centered to our southeast has
kept low clouds in place longer than anticipated across all but
eastern Upper and coastal NW Lower. Delayed clearing will also
likely result in lower high temperatures for today, so have
tweaked them down in many areas as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...Perhaps a viewing of the Northern Lights tonight?...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Deep (albeit slowly filling) low pressure continues to work slowly
northeast across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley early this
morning. Attendant shower shield has now pushed off to our southeast
and south (at least temporarily), with elongated surface high
pressure and mid level ridging gradually building into the northern
Great Lakes. Looking a bit further upstream, shortwave trough
digging southeast into the high plains of central Canada, with slug
of some appreciably chilly air digging in behind it. Seasonably mild
conditions continue across our neck of the woods, with most areas
still well up in the 40s.

Southern low will continue to push off to the northeast, reaching
vicinity New England by Sunday morning. Upstream wave continues to
deepen on its southeast journey into the northern Plains and
southern Canada. Sharp shortwave ridge between these features
dominates our weather into at least the start of Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud and temperature trends. Addressing any lingering shower
potential this morning.

Details:

Mid level ridging will continue to expand and build into our area
today and tonight...with a cold front expected to push into
northwest sections of the area by sunrise Sunday. Still looks some
lingering deeper moisture rotating back west may bring a few
sprinkles/widely scattered light showers to areas down near Saginaw
Bay this morning...with increasing deep layer subsidence resulting
in dry weather this afternoon and tonight. Perusal of guidance
derived soundings suggest clearing already occurring across eastern
upper and the tip of the mitt counties will expand slowly south and
east with time...with clearing taking the longest to reach our far
southeast counties (perhaps not until this evening). Mainly clear
through the early overnight, with some increasing clouds from the
west as we head into early Sunday morning. This will hopefully allow
a viewing of the Northern Lights, which are expected to be visible
as far south as the northern Ohio Valley. As for temperatures, that
increasing sun today and an overall mild overhead airmass will
result in readings running several degrees above normal, with highs
expected to top out in the middle to upper 50s. Clear skies and
light winds this evening should allow overnight lows to drop well
down into the 30s across interior areas (still at least a few
degrees above normal).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential first accumulating snow?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

By Sunday morning...former closed low in the southern stream of the
flow will have opened up and be heading up into New England...ahead
of noteworthy shortwave troughing in the northern stream which will
be dropping through the flow. This troughing will ultimately end up
settling in over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the
period...and perhaps through much of the extended as well..with an
Omega Blocking pattern setting up to our west. Our trough will be
the downstream anchor for this block...with an anomalous upper level
ridge over Northwestern Canada...and troughing hanging out in the
Pacific, just off the West Coast. Various niblets will pivot through
the troughing on either side of the ridge...which should
additionally keep us on the active side of things here in the Great
Lakes through the start of the upcoming week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/snow potential through the
period...gusty winds Sunday into Monday...

Tight thermal and thickness gradient will be dropping in from the
northwest Sunday behind a strong surface cold front...ahead of the
shortwave troughing aloft. There may be some light precipitation
ahead of this front Sunday morning into the afternoon... though it
will certainly not be the main event, as there is not a ton of deep
moisture associated with this feature...particularly noting some mid-
level drying right behind it. At this point...low-level moisture
behind the front (and aided by the Lakes) will take over. As temps
aloft crash through the day Sunday into Sunday night...will look for
delta Ts to fall into the realm of 15C or better...which should be
sufficient to start up the lake effect machine again. Taking a look
at some of the latest GLERL data...looks like water surface temps
may not be as warm as previously thought...noting that current buoy
data has water temps to our south in the low to mid 50s F. This
suggests overlake instability may not end up quite as extreme as
previously thought...though it should still be decent enough to
produce lake effect. Sufficient overlake instability should remain
present through the remainder of the period (and perhaps much of the
first half of the week) with the troughing aloft overhead...and
various niblets passing through the flow to reinforce the cold idea.

The challenge with regard to the precipitation forecast will be the
changeovers from rain to snow (and back again), particularly at
night. Will be looking for surface temps Sunday night to fall below
freezing, particularly across Eastern Upper and the interior high
terrain of Northern Lower. Deepest moisture looks like it could be
across Eastern Upper through this time, with saturation still
looking possible in the DGZ, per model derived soundings...which
suggests dendritic growth will be possible aloft. Whether or not it
makes it to the ground as snow is another story...though it is
certainly possible. With potential for some low-level dry air right
off the surface, will also have to watch out for wet bulbing to
produce snow quicker or in places where we didn't necessarily expect
it. Better potential for snow looks to take place Monday night as we
should be colder overall...and as the first niblet approaches the
region late in the overnight/early Tuesday morning, though there is
a touch of uncertainty in when this shortwave moves through.

As far as winds go, which ties into the lake effect discussion as
well...will look for the strongest winds later Sunday through the
night, and perhaps into Monday...as the pressure gradient tightens
up between the departing low pressure system...and high pressure in
the Plains. Initially...winds should be more northwesterly behind
the front...slowly switching over to more westerly with time going
into Monday...as we wait for that next niblet to swing through. With
potential for some stronger winds aloft, will have to keep an eye
out for them to mix down to the surface at times...though
attm...looks like we may only gust into the upper 20s or perhaps low
30s at best... maybe a few gales out there at times....? Will
keep an eye on this. Winds should diminish into Monday night as the
gradient weakens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Lake effect rain/snow chances...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Potential for a vort max to swing through early Tuesday lends to
increased potential for lake effect chances...as it should continue
to reinforce the cold air aloft and sustain overlake instability.
Additionally...this may be the coldest air yet...with potential for
some locations to struggle to get into the 40s for highs. Overnight
lows look to remain below freezing across most areas (except for the
immediate lakeshores) through much of the extended, further
supporting the idea of accumulating snow, as it may be sufficiently
cold through the column for snow to actually make it to the ground,
if precipitation occurs...and the ground (or at least, elevated
surfaces) may become cold enough for it to stick as well. Will have
to monitor wind directions going forward...as a more stable wind
direction would support higher potential for accumulating snow
(i.e., precip stays more or less in one area instead of switching
back and forth). Things become rather uncertain beyond Tuesday
night...as there is some uncertainty in the evolution of the
pattern...though it looks like it overall may try to remain loosely
blocky for a time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

VFR conditions expected for much of the 18Z TAF valid time across
the northern Michigan terminals. Winds will be fairly light until
a cold front approaches toward daybreak Sunday. As the front
approaches, gusty northwest winds will develop, accompanied by
MVFR CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

North to northeast winds expected to gradually diminish today as
high pressure builds into the region. Light winds into this evening
gives way to increasing northwest winds later tonight, and
especially on Sunday, as a developing cold front works its way
across our area. Widespread small craft advisory conditions are
likely on Sunday, with even perhaps a few gale force gusts on
portions of northern Lake Huron later Sunday afternoon into the
evening. Northwest to west winds, at times gusty, will continue
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PB
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...PB
MARINE...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1225 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-311630-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1225 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-311630-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1225 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few gale force wind gusts are possible on portions of northern
Lake Huron late Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.