Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...
Primary aviation concern is the prospect of thunder at all TAF
sites over the next 6 hours. A few storms are attempting to
develop near GUY currently, but the favored area for storm
generation will slowly shift to the west and south over the next
few hours. Have thus gone with a VCTS mention at this location. At
AMA, latest guidance and observations suggests a window later this
afternoon where thunderstorms may slide south over the terminal,
so have refined the ongoing TEMPO group. Farther west at DHT,
ongoing cloudiness suggests that this area may miss out on
thunderstorms, so have carried fair weather through the TAF.
Otherwise, expect generally some form of southerly winds over the
next 24 hours, with erratic changes should any thunderstorms
occur.

Ferguson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night...

The main highlights for the short term are thunderstorm chances
this evening as well as Tuesday afternoon. For today, some of the
thunderstorms may be strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds as the threats. The storms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain which may lead to possible flash flooding.
Tuesday afternoon storm coverage will be limited to the
southeastern Panhandles. Severe weather is not expected with the
storms on Tuesday.

High pressure aloft, stretching from the southwest CONUS up
through the Northern High Plains, will keep the area under north
to northwesterly flow today. An upper level disturbance is
progged to move across the area this afternoon and evening
creating a lifting mechanism for showers and storms today.
Moisture advection into the region will be high for this time of
year, with PWAT values ranging between 1.2" to 1.5" across the
area. These values are around the 90th percentile and up to the
max moving average for this time of year, so heavy rain could be
possible with these thunderstorms. Given adequate MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, some of the storms could be capable of producing
quarter size hail. The damaging wind potential will be limited to
collapsing thunderstorms as strongest updrafts will be isolated
and pulse like.

High pressure aloft will track slightly to the east tonight into
Tuesday as it begins to break down due to a trough digging across
the western CONUS. As the high pressure moves east, warmer air
will advect into the lower levels and temperatures will be
slightly higher on Tuesday. Another upper level disturbance is
progged to move across the area Tuesday which may trigger some
thunderstorms in the southern and eastern Panhandles during the
afternoon and evening. PWAT values will continue to be near the
90th percentile, so heavy rain will still be possible.
Instability and shear look to be quite weak at this time, so
severe storms are not expected on Tuesday.

Muscha/Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Shortwave trough near the Four Corners region Wednesday will track
eastward and approach the Panhandles Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Convection is expected to spread across the southern
portions of the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Closed upper low over the northern U.S. Rockies with
upper trough south across the southern Rockies Friday will allow
for additional convection across the Panhandles late Friday and
Friday night. Upper high builds over the northern Gulf coast
states with the Panhandles on the western periphery of this upper
high. Shortwave trough over the southern Rockies along with
perturbations in the upper flow will allow for chances for
convection Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Upper high
builds west by Sunday to near the ArkLaTex with an open wave over
the southwestern states and southern Rockies. Convection will
still be possible mainly across the southern Texas Panhandle
Sunday afternoon.

Surface trough across eastern Colorado into New Mexico Wednesday.
Surface low over southeastern Colorado Thursday with surface
trough across eastern New Mexico will approach the northwestern
Panhandles Thursday night with cold front pushing south and east
across the central Plains states. Cold front to move into the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles by Friday afternoon and
then into the central and southern Texas Panhandle by Friday
night. Frontal boundary become stationary or quasi-stationary
Saturday and Saturday night across the forecast area. The frontal
boundary should lift north and east away from the Panhandles as a
warm front Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

77/89

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1043 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ004-161615-
Ochiltree TX-
1043 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Ochiltree County through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1042 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perryton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perryton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 10092 3649 10093 3649 10058 3622 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 268DEG 15KT 3641 10083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ008-161830-
Hutchinson TX-
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Hutchinson County through 130 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Borger, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Borger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 10138 3578 10141 3595 10109 3566 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 255DEG 9KT 3576 10133

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
128 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ006-011-161900-
Hartley TX-Oldham TX-
128 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Oldham and
southeastern Hartley Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Boys Ranch, or 18 miles north of Vega, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Channing and Boys Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10229 3530 10262 3575 10240 3574 10217
      3553 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 203DEG 14KT 3551 10236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJG