Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will become MVFR to possibly IFR at all three TAF
sites after 06Z to 09Z Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to
return after 19Z to 21Z Sunday at the Dalhart and Guymon TAF
sites. South winds 5 to 15 knots will become north and northeast
at the Amarillo TAF site after 04Z to 06Z Sunday. North and
northeast winds 10 to 20 knots or 5 to 15 knots at the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites will prevail through 00Z Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the three TAF sites through around
20Z Sunday to 00Z Monday at all three TAF sites. Wind speeds will
be much stronger and more erratic in and near the thunderstorms.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night...

Current obs show the front to be in Kansas and almost on the OK
Panhandle doorstep. Visible satellite shows cumulus clouds forming
in the southeastern half of the Panhandles from a line from Vega
to Beaver and a storm starting to fire up east of Silverton. As
the cumulus builds and we near convective temp today, we will see
more storms start to fire up. Storms in the OK Panhandle may see
severe wind gusts as DCAPE is strongest up there with around
1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE and inverted V soundings. MLCAPE is only
around 500 J/kg today so not expecting much for large hail.
Visible satellite also shows an area of cu forming in the
northwestern Panhandle that is in response to the surface flow
bringing air around the low and up the terrain. A shield of low
clouds in association with the front are in KS and heading
southward. As the front pushes through the area, more showers and
thunderstorms will fill in around the Panhandles. By sunset the
instability will decrease and the severe threat will diminish. A
shortwave is set to arrive overnight, which will enhance
thunderstorm chances between 03Z and 09Z. Another shortwave looks
to ride around the upper level flow and arrive midday tomorrow. So
depending on the location of the front by that time, more showers
and storms may be induced along the front. If the front is far
enough south, the atmosphere should be stable enough that the
arrival of the wave won't have an effect. Between the cooler air
mass, showers, and the cloud cover all day tomorrow, the
Panhandles may see temps 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today.

Beat

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday night...

Current satellite analysis depicts an upper level trough digging
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley with an MCS over eastern
MO and southwestern IL. Evidence of a cold front can be seen in
the water vapor as well composite radar. The front is currently
located around a line from Dodge City to Wichita, KS as of this
writing. The upper level trough and associated surface front will
bring below normal temperatures to the area through about Thursday
before high pressure shifts east from the Desert Southwest.
Daytime highs are looking to be back in the low 90s by Friday
afternoon after being in the 80s Sunday through Thursday.

The upper level trough is progged to keep digging south into the
Southern Mississippi River Valley shifting high pressure to the
west of the FA while a ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. At
H5, high pressure will sit over southern CA, southern NV, and
western AZ from Monday through Wednesday night. This high will
wrap monsoonal moisture around its periphery through the early
part of next week. However, the monsoonal storms will likely stay
in New Mexico an the far western portions of the FA. With that
said there will be a slight chance to chance PoPs for the western
half of the FA, with the eastern half most likely missing out on
rain Monday through Wednesday. Wide spread severe storms are not
likely. However, Tuesday evening looks like there may be enough
instability in the far western Oklahoma Panhandle to warrant a
closer look going into Monday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
219 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
219 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles late this afternoon through tonight. A storm or
two may become strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary
hazard. The severe wind threat will primarily be in the Oklahoma
Panhandle. In addition, the strongest storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding or
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles Sunday and Sunday night. Any storms that form are
expected to remain below severe levels at this time. However, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
mainly Sunday morning and afternoon, which could lead to localized
flooding or flash flooding.

Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Monday through
Wednesday night across parts of the area. Any storms that form are
expected to remain below severe levels at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
857 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

TXZ017-018-317-010230-
Palo Duro Canyon TX-Randall TX-Armstrong TX-
857 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 857 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Palo Duro Canyon, or 13 miles southeast of Canyon.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Armstrong and southeastern Randall Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10198 3496 10194 3490 10157 3475 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 044DEG 3KT 3484 10175

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

TXZ008-009-013-014-010330-
Hutchinson TX-Gray TX-Roberts TX-Carson TX-
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 959 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pampa, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa, Skellytown, Kingsmill and Codman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 10120 3572 10118 3573 10069 3545 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 300DEG 6KT 3559 10095

LFM

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