Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
233 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...
Looking at satellite analysis this afternoon, the cold front is
positioned over northwest Kansas across southeast Colorado. Storms
have already begun to initiate along the front as it slowly
meanders south today. Meanwhile a few showers are possible across
the western Panhandles along a leftover outflow boundary from
storms that were in eastern New Mexico early this morning.
Additional storms along the surface trough have also fired in
northeast New Mexico and are moving slowly southward due to north
northwest flow aloft. The front will eventually collide with these
storms and push them further into the forecast area this
afternoon and evening with severe storms possible across the
northwest Panhandles. MLCAPE values are around 1500-2000 J/kg with
0-6km bulk shear of 20-25 knots and DCAPE values around 1000-1500
J/kg. If a severe storm or two can form, damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph will be the main threat but small hail cannot be ruled
out.

As the front pushes through late tonight, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front. The
potential for these storms will increase if there are lingering
outflow boundaries for the front to collide with. Instability will
be weak, so there is a low potential for the severe threat to
continue overnight with these storms. Flooding continues to remain
a threat due to the saturated soils from recent rainfall, along
with the slow storm motion expected with the storms today. PWATs
are around 1.2 inches, which is close to the 90th percentile.

The location of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning and
afternoon solely depend on the frontal boundary speed and where it
stalls out. Models have the front potentially stalling tomorrow
morning over the southern half of the Texas Panhandle, but there
is a chance that this front will just plow through and the
precipitation chances could quickly diminish before the afternoon
hours. For now the forecast continues with the trend of the front
stalling and precipitation chances continuing into the evening
hours before diminishing tomorrow night.

Rutt

&&

.LONG TERM...
At this point it looks like we will have a dry period from Thursday
into Friday as the flow aloft is from the northeast which should
keep any mountain convection to our west.  The only fly in the
ointment would be if a subtle short wave trough were to happen to
move through this flow and touch off a few showers and
thunderstorms.

By Friday night, the flow aloft becomes just enough northwesterly to
bring thunderstorms into our northwest.

The northwest flow increases Saturday through Sunday as the upper
high moves back to the west and an upper level trough swings south
southeast through the plains.  This short wave trough will help to
drive a cold front through the Panhandles Saturday and Saturday
night.  The cold front in association with the increasing
instability and shear should help to produce showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area Saturday and Saturday night.

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorm along and
behind the front across the southern and western Texas Panhandle and
the western Oklahoma Panhandle on Sunday if the front stalls close
enough to our CWA.  If the front goes much further south, then any
showers and thunderstorms would be limited to the far western CWA or
even further to the west.

On Monday, the northwest flow aloft continues between the high over
northern Arizona and the low over northern Missouri.  This will
help to drag any mountain convection into the western Panhandles.

It looks like the warmest day will be on Friday with highs close to
normal in the 90's.  Highs then cool off for Saturday through Monday
given the higher rain chances and the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  83  65  89  68 /  20  30  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  67  85  64  93  70 /  30  30   5   0   5
Boise City OK              63  83  60  91  65 /  60  20   5   0   5
Borger TX                  69  87  68  94  72 /  30  30  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              68  86  65  92  69 /  30  30  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  65  83  64  89  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
Clarendon TX               66  84  67  89  69 /  10  30  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  83  60  91  63 /  50  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  66  85  62  93  68 /  30  20   5   0   5
Hereford TX                66  85  64  91  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
Lipscomb TX                68  86  65  92  70 /  30  40  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   66  85  65  91  69 /  20  30  20   0   0
Shamrock TX                66  87  67  90  69 /  10  30  20   0   0
Wellington TX              67  88  68  92  69 /  10  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

23/15

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