Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.AVIATION...
There is still some uncertainty about the potential for some
thunderstorms to make it into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle
from New Mexico. Main timing will be from about 02Z for KDHT, 04Z
for KGUY, and 06Z for KAMA if they are to be impacted. Have VCTS
in the TAF as confidence is still not very high if these storms
will maintain themselves or how wide spread they will be. If
thunderstorms do make it into the area this could create concern
for LLWS even if they are up to 5 miles away. Surface winds will
be out of the east to south around 5 to 15 kts, without
interference from outflows. CIGs should also remain above 9k ft
outside of any active thunderstorm.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night...

H5 ridge axis extends from NRN Mexico into W Texas. Two subtle
ridge riding S/WVs can be seen in WV imagery in NRN NM and ERN AZ
and these are forecast to cross the region through the overnight
hours. The low level flow has returned to a more easterly
direction behind yesterdays front which is now located near a
Hereford Wichita Falls line, but will slowly lift and become more
diffuse through the night allowing winds to turn more SE.
Abundant low level moisture remains near and north of the boundary
and Tds are in the 60s with even some low 70s. Models agree that
H7 moisture advection has been occurring through the day with an
H7 theta-e ridge setting up near the WRN Panhandles. MLCAPE is
around 2500-3500 J/KG and the SPC RAP shows an impressive
3000-4000 MLCAPE by 01 UTC. While this seems high, it should be
noted that the 12Z sounding showed observed MLCAPE of just over
4000 J/KG which might be a record for the station! Effective bulk
shear is forecast to the be 30-35 tonight while the 0-3km helicity
increases to 200-300 with the help of a 30 kt LLJ. This all seems
to be setting the stage for a TSTM event and assoc severe chcs
with discrete cells possible early in the evening possibly
congealing into an MCS, HOWEVER there is one major caveat - there
is a cap.

While all the momentum was towards the more agressive models 18-24
hours ago, that has come to a screeching halt since then and
models have reverted to extremely different solutions regarding
how tonight will play out. Although the GFS remains extremely
agressive (and persistent), am somewhat dubious of this solution
given what appears to be convective feedback that significantly
strengthens the S/WV over the WRN Panhandles before it crosses to
the east. The FV3 Hi-res is one of the more agressive CAMs (GFS
influence?) and SPC HREF is relatively excited as well with
developing an MCS, but HRRR, NAM and others are not (HRRR not at
all). SPC has expanded the SLT risk through the day and it now
includes the entire WRN Panhandles (including a hatched area for
wind west), but there is still significant uncertainty given huge
spread in model guidance that ranges from an MCS impacting much of
the area to nothing holding together vs the cap and very little
or nothing happening. Current forecast is closest to the TTU WRF
which is a nice compromise solution. Forecsat is showing SCT
TSTMs in the west this evening (40-50% coverage) and lesser
coverage in the east as things weaken (20-30%). There would be a
threat for large hail and damaging wind and and a very low tornado
potential in this case. If the most aggressive CAMs verify, a
significant MCS would provide even higher wind and heavy rainfall
threat which is why SPC is also highlighting a significant wind
threat (hatched area) in the SWODY1.

H5 ridge builds north towards the Four Corners with mid level
flow becoming more NNW on Sunday. This flow regime does not favor
NM mountain convection crossing the border, but CAPE remains very
high and wind shear is sufficient that we can not rule out
influence from mountain generated storms further north than normal.
S/WVs riding this ridge also could cause cap to break allowing
isolated storms to form locally. Without presence of a boundary to
provide low level forcing, POPs have been limited to SLT CHC
tomorrow and tomorrow night but are above the NBM forecast POPs
which are less than 15 across the board.

Even though we are not seeing heat advisory level temps or heat
index, we have received word regarding heat related issues
occurring in the Canyon (heat index near 102 there). These
dewpoints are extremely high for the area and it is apparent, we
are not used to it.

Gittinger

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...

Overall, pretty quiet forecast in the extended. Seasonable
temperatures are forecast with mostly dry conditions. Friday is
our next best shot at seeing rainfall. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 90s next week with a few locations flirting around
100 degrees.

On Monday, the H5 high will be centered over the Four Corners
region, and will sit over in this general area for several days
before eventually flattening out by the end of the work week.
This will result in a northwest flow pattern aloft. This pattern
is pretty typical for summer time convection here in the
Panhandles, and there will be a chance for thunderstorms to come
off the higher terrain to the west. There is also a chance for a
cold front to makes its way into the region, but models differ a
lot on the southward progression. The GFS is pretty aggressive
bringing it all the way into the Panhandles. If this comes to
fruition, we will have small perturbations within the northwest
flow which may interact with the cold front. This could result in
widespread rainfall. However, the GFS seems to be the outlier here
with several other models holding the front up in Kansas. We will
have to watch how this trends going forward. Otherwise, the long
term is pretty quiet with lots of sunshine and relatively light
winds speeds.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

36/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
952 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-131500-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
952 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms expected through late tonight. The
primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. The western
and central Panhandles are favored for severe weather where a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 3 AM Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible Friday night. Its too early
to say with much confidence the chances for severe weather at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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