Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...

VFR conditions expected to prevail through a majority of the TAF
period. Primary concern is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to shift southeastward out of CO overnight. With the
development of these thunderstorms still uncertain, and the chance
for a storm to directly impact a terminal a bit lower than that,
have elected to cover this possibility with VCTS groups at all
sites, highlighting the thunder without introducing any flight
rules restrictions. Should these storms begin to develop,
amendments may be issued as confidence increases. Otherwise,
winds, generally southeasterly as of issuance time, look to veer
through the period, becoming northeasterly at all sites by
Wednesday afternoon.

Ferguson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 118 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Subtle mid level wave moving through northwest flow is depicted in
the latest water vapor imagery moving into portions of northeast
NM and the western combined Panhandles. Some convective showers
and very isolated thunderstorms have developed along a weak area
of sfc convergence north of a surface low near KCVN and KDHT
amidst surface dew points in the mid 50s. Another perturbation in
the north northwest flow is moving into west central CO as of
this writing. This feature may help initiate elevated storms later
tonight as it round the backside of an upper level trough whose
axis will be over western OK up into the central plains.

The first round of activity through this afternoon will be
isolated to scattered as lift will be limited, especially
considering PVA is already occurring. The best area for
destabilization will be across the northwestern third of the
Panhandles where insolation and cooler mid level temperatures will
help overcome any capping with about 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by
peak heating. East of AMA to PPA will see slightly warmer mid
level temperatures and lower MLCAPE maxing out at 700 to 1000
J/kg. DCAPE values today are generally less than 1000 J/kg, so
will need some good hydrometeor loading to produce a substantial
wind gust over 70 mph, especially considering storm motions will
be slow (east southeast at 10 to 20 mph based on mean 0-6km
winds). Effective shear this afternoon will be marginal for storm
organization at around 20 to 30 knots. However, a 500mb jet max
does increase this evening which should result in a slight uptick
in 0-6km bulk shear at 40 to 50 knots, yet by this time the
thermodynamic skew-T profiles should become more stable near the
surface, resulting in smaller effective MUCAPE around 400 to 800
J/kg. Thus, a few multicells will be possible this afternoon with
the strongest updrafts capable of 60 mph winds and 1.5 inch hail.
As the second wave moves through this evening (mainly after 9 PM),
the strongest storms should stay below severe criteria (although
hail near quarter size can't be ruled out). Storms may congeal
some overnight as the feed into a relatively weak low level jet. A
low flash flood threat does exist today based on PWATs between the
75th and 90th percentile and slow storm motions.

The Panhandle area stays on the backside of the upper level
trough tomorrow with an a similar setup to today, perhaps shifted
east and south. There are some differences with moisture fields
tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary tries to bring in some drier
low level air. This will lower chances for convection across the
northwestern half of the area. Will have to watch the position of
the frontal boundary (along with any residual outflow boundaries)
to get a better idea of where storms will develop. Best CAPE will
be more focused across the southern zones (especially southwest)
with effective shear around 25 to 35 knots, so multicells should
be possible once again with severe hail being the main threat.

Ward

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

North to northwest flow aloft with a few minor disturbances for
the Panhandles starting Thursday. Thursday through Saturday the
forecast looks to remain dry. A small ridge will start to build
over NM and CO going into Sunday. Overall flow aloft is pretty
weak through the extended period, and as of right now the NBM only
has wide spread slight chance PoPs Sunday evening. Then, some
slight chance PoPs in the eastern Panhandles Monday evening.
Daytime temperatures will be in the 80s with Td's still in the 50s
and 60s through Monday. Convective temperatures will be the
primary driver for thunderstorm initiation.

Hoffeditz

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

77/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-020630-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles. Isolated storms may become severe across
western and central sections of the area, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Wednesday through Thursday evening, and then
again Sunday afternoon through Monday. Isolated storms may become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may become necessary late this
afternoon and evening across western and central sections of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

TXZ006-012330-
Hartley TX-
549 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARTLEY COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Amistad, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Hartley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 10304 3606 10282 3581 10279 3581 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 000DEG 11KT 3601 10299

Ferguson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
906 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

OKZ001-TXZ001-020300-
Cimarron OK-Dallam TX-
906 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIMARRON AND
NORTHWESTERN DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 905 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Texline, or 11 miles northeast of Clayton, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Up to nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Texline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10300 3659 10300 3663 10295 3651 10264
      3626 10296 3639 10304 3650 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 302DEG 8KT 3652 10298

Ferguson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1122 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

OKZ002-TXZ001>003-007-020500-
Texas OK-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Hansford TX-Moore TX-
1122 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN
HANSFORD...SHERMAN...EAST CENTRAL DALLAM AND NORTH CENTRAL MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Eva to 9 miles southwest
of Texhoma to 4 miles northeast of Conlen. Movement was southeast at
40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Guymon, Stratford, Cactus, Sunray, Goodwell, Optima, Conlen and
Texhoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10116 3619 10148 3589 10195 3632 10238
      3650 10210 3650 10203 3657 10203 3682 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 302DEG 33KT 3672 10178 3643 10194 3628 10219

Ferguson