Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Amarillo, TX

274 
WWUS54 KAMA 252020
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

TXC211-295-393-252045-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-210625T2045Z/
Lipscomb TX-Roberts TX-Hemphill TX-
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LIPSCOMB...EAST CENTRAL ROBERTS AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...

At 319 PM CDT, two severe thunderstorms, the first near Canadian and 
the second 5 miles northwest of Lora, were moving northeast at 35 
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect some tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. Hail damage to vehicles is 
         expected.

Locations impacted include...
Canadian, Glazier, Lake Marvin and Lora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 10054 3582 10070 3617 10043 3581 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 231DEG 33KT 3594 10040 3580 10061 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Ferguson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle...

Main concern will once again be for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Have utilized VCTS
for lower confidence sites and TEMPOs for higher confidence.
Timing will be tricky, as there could be multiple rounds of storm
activity. Any storms could produce MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys and strong
wind gusts. Low clouds may also invade the area early Saturday
morning resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs. Some patchy fog or drizzle
also can't be ruled out briefly between 12z and 18z Saturday.
Winds are expected to shift from southerly to more northerly
overnight behind a cold front. Some brief low level wind shear is
possible overnight, mainly favoring KAMA.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions throughout the 12Z TAF period. Mostly clear
skies and south to southeast winds at 10-20 kts through about
21-22Z. VCTS/TS conditions will soon develop at all TAF sites
between 21Z and 00Z and linger through around 04-06Z Saturday
before rainfall moves out of TAF sites. Some TS may produce hail,
lightning, and erratic winds. Going towards the end of the TAF
period, winds behind passing cold front will shift to
northeasterly. As a result, patchy drizzle/low clouds are
possible, especially for KAMA/KGUY with MVFR cigs. Confidence is
too low to include in TAF at this time, but will be updated in
future TAFs.

Muscha/Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night...

Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for this afternoon
and evening and will continue through Saturday night for the
entire Panhandles. Any thunderstorm that forms in the afternoon
and evening on either day, could be strong to severe with all
hazards possible.

Friday:

Summary: Strong to severe storms are expected to develop
along surface boundaries by mid to late afternoon. Initially,
storms are expected to be discrete and will eventually form into
a line in the evening. Large hail up to golf ball size, wind gusts
up to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall are the main threats. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Discussion: A surface boundary is currently moving into the
northern Panhandles early this morning and is expected to continue
to push south through the day. The front is expected to stall and
orient itself from NE to SW across the Panhandles this afternoon.
An upper level shortwave trough combined with the stalled front,
will aid in the initial development of thunderstorms this
afternoon. A dryline along the NM/TX border may also be a factor
for where storms develop across the west. The exact placement of
the front and dryline is still in question and will play a large
role in where the development of storms could occur. Outflow from
the previous day's convection may also interact with the front
this afternoon and may help provide enough lift for thunderstorm
development. The initial storms are expected to be discrete and
will eventually form a line before pushing off to the east as the
evening goes on. With MLCAPE values pushing upwards of 2500-3000
J/Kg and sufficient shear along the front, the initial discrete
cells could pose a threat for large hail up to golf ball size in
the first few hours. Once the storms congeal into a line, the
larger threat will be wind gusts up to 70 mph aided by DCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg later in the evening. With LCL heights
being as high as they are forecast to be, the tornado threat is
low, but one or two cannot be ruled out. PWAT values are expected
to be upwards of 1.5 inches which will lead to heavy rainfall.
Storm motion is not expected to be quick, so localized flash
flooding is possible.

Saturday:

Summary: Strong to severe storms are in the forecast again for
Saturday. The front is expected to push further south across the
Panhandles on Saturday and will again be the focus for
thunderstorm development. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall are the primary threats. A tornado is possible but not
likely.

Discussion: The cold front is expected to continue to push south
across the Panhandles on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will
be 10-15 degrees cooler than the highs on Friday. The front will
again be the focus for convection in the afternoon and evening.
The exact placement of the front is still up in the air, but is
expected to either stall in the southern zones of our CWA or may
push through entirely. If the front sets up in our area, severe
thunderstorms are again possible on Saturday. Thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be aided by lift along the
surface boundary and an upper level shortwave moving across the
area. Outflow from the previous night's convection, may interact
with the front and aid in providing enough lift to produce
thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are
all possible. A tornado is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.
Thunderstorms may also develop off of the higher terrain in NM and
push into the western portion of the CWA later in the evening.
Strong wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall would be the
primary threat with those thunderstorms.

Muscha/Meccariello

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

Upper trough tracking east through the Plains states Sunday will
allow for convection across most or all of the Panhandles. A
closed upper low is expected to develop over the central Plains
states by Monday and Monday night before weakening by Tuesday.
Convection chances continue early next week and through the middle
of the week. An upper high over central and south Texas Wednesday
night into Thursday with the upper trough across the central
Plains states will result in a conveyor belt of moisture wrapping
around the western periphery of the upper high and maintaining
chances for convection into the latter half of next week.

A cold front will push just east and south of the Panhandles
Sunday with a cool surface ridge building down into the forecast
area from the central Rockies. A more moist upslope northeasterly
surface flow is expected late this weekend into early next week
with temperatures much below normal. Precip Water forecast to be
just over an inch to as high as around an inch and a half to 1.60
inches Sunday through Thursday. For this time of year in Amarillo,
precip waters around 1.10 to 1.60 inches are near the 75th and
90th percentile or higher. Heavy rainfall along with flooding or
flash flooding concerns must be considered.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

7/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-260745-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Severe storms will be likely,
with damaging winds, large hail and even a landspout being the
primary hazards. Heavy rainfall resulting in flooding or flash
flooding concerns can also be expected this afternoon through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles Saturday through Thursday. The greatest potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms appears to be Saturday, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Locally heavy
rainfall could result in flooding or flash flooding concerns
Saturday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency Management Officials along with spotters and spotter
groups should be ready for activation this afternoon through
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             9 NE PERRYTON           36.50N 100.71W
06/24/2021  E1.50 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   PUBLIC

            PERSON REPORTED BROKEN WINDOWS TO HOUSE FROM
            LARGE HAIL BLOWING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
            LARGEST HAIL WAS PING PONG BALL SIZE WITH
            LOTS OF QUARTERS. VEHICLES RECEIVED DENTS
            AND TREE LIMBS UP TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            WERE BLOWN/KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

TLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BRYANS CORNER       36.62N 100.77W
06/24/2021                   BEAVER             OK   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER COMPANY IS REPORTING 46 TRANSMISSION
            POLES (65 FOOT), AND 50-60 DISTRIBUTION
            POLES (35 FOOT) TAKEN OUT BETWEEN BALKO AND
            ELMWOOD, OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BY
            DAMAGE TO BE BETWEEN 85 AND 95 MPH.

&&

TLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
247 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

TXZ009-010-014-252015-
Hemphill TX-Gray TX-Roberts TX-
247 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRAY...SOUTHEASTERN
ROBERTS AND SOUTHWESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Miami, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canadian, Miami, Codman and Lora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3585 10018 3562 10049 3562 10054 3558 10054
      3548 10067 3561 10099 3597 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 231DEG 26KT 3569 10067

TLH