Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Amarillo, TX

749 
WWUS54 KAMA 270006
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
706 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKC007-270100-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210527T0100Z/
Beaver OK-
706 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR BEAVER COUNTY...

At 706 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elmwood, or 11
miles south of Beaver, moving east at 20 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Forgan, Mocane, Elmwood, Slapout and Balko. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 10058 3672 10078 3696 10048 3651 10000
      3650 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 252DEG 18KT 3666 10052 

HAIL...3.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ward

360 
WWUS54 KAMA 270027 RRA
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
727 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKC007-270100-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210527T0100Z/
Beaver OK-
727 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR BEAVER COUNTY...

At 727 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Elmwood, or 9 miles southeast of Beaver, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect some tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. People and animals outdoors will 
         be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, 
         and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Forgan, Mocane, Elmwood, Slapout and Balko. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 10058 3672 10078 3696 10048 3651 10000
      3650 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 236DEG 30KT 3672 10040 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Ward

997 
WWUS54 KAMA 270046
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
746 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKC007-270100-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210527T0100Z/
Beaver OK-
746 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN BEAVER COUNTY...

At 746 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Knowles, or 12 miles east of Beaver, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible. Hail 
         damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Elmwood, Slapout and Balko. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3667 10074 3690 10042 3651 10000 3650 10000
      3650 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 238DEG 18KT 3677 10030 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ward

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites. Only exception
would be TS that move over TAF sites with erratic winds. Reports
of moderate to severe turbulence from PIREP at 2325Z at KAMA.
VCTS conditions at KAMA will exist through around 04-06Z before
storms exit the region. Some WS will exist through 09Z before
dissipating. VFR will continue past 06Z for all TAF sites with sct
mid level clouds. Winds will generally be out of the south and
southwest at 5-15 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Morning...

Satellite today has had an array of complications for us to
figure out what's going to happen with today's severe weather
chances. This morning we had low clouds which may have slowed our
ability to break the cap. Currently there are high clouds
streaming into the area from NM which may limit our ability to
reach convective temps. Obs show the dryline is starting to bulge
into the Panhandles over Bootleg to Adrian. Short range models
prog the dryline to further protrude and push to a line from just
west of Hereford to Sunray to Goodwell to Elkhart. Storms are
expected to fire off of the dryline, which seems reasonable as we
will have some uplift from a shortwave crossing the area around
mid-afternoon to help with any hindrances from the low clouds
earlier or current high clouds. We will be doing a 19Z special
sounding to see just how strong the cap is at AMA and how likely
we are to break it. The low clouds were stronger and held on
longer in the southeast TX Panhandle, so there may be stronger
capping in that area. Obs also show some low level convergence
from the southwest flow behind the dryline and the southeasterly
flow across the rest of the Panhandles. This may help to enhance
the potential for a cu field to develop around Umbarger to Boys
Ranch, which is also where the NamNest wants to develop the first
storms of the day. If the NamNest is the best model of the day, it
suggests we should see a slight cap still at 2 PM and that it
should erode by 4 PM. CAMS are in some agreement that the southern
TX Panhandle will see storms fire up today, but not all agree
with the possibility of storms splitting up and some going towards
the OK Panhandle. With the low clouds not in place up in the
northeast this morning and the high clouds just now coming across
that area, there is some likelihood that the cap there may be able
to break and see storms cross that portion of the area. Thus have
included pops to account for those models indicating storms going
that direction. CAMs have great instability for today with MLCAPE
of 1500 J/kg and MUCAPE of 4000 or more J/kg. DCAPE is forecast
to be around 1500 J/kg. Storm motion will again be fairly slow
today with 15-20 mph. LCLs have lowered today to be around 1000m
and 0-1km SRH is around 75-100 m2/s2. So today with all these
parameters, we will likely see hail of ping pong size with some
stronger storms able to reach upwards of 3 inch hail. Winds may
become 70-80 mph with collapsing storms or good downbursts.
Tornadoes will be possible today, especially around boundaries
where shear can increase. After the storms dive to the east and
exit the area, there will be another shot at a round 2 as storms
come in from the north overnight in the early morning hours.
Models are projecting those storms to enter the OK Panhandle
around 4 or 5 AM and dive southeast. These storms will be ahead of
the cold front that is expected to come into the Panhandles
starting around 8 AM. The cold front looks to sag into the area
through midday.

Beat

LONG TERM...Tomorrow Afternoon through Tuesday...

Active weather pattern continues for the Panhandles. Not everyone
will get a chance of showers and storms everyday, but throughout
the forecast period, there will be many chances for precipitation.

Starting tomorrow afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms are
once again possible for a good portion of the combined Panhandles.
The main focal point for thunderstorm development would be in a
corridor ahead of equatorward moving cold front across the Texas
Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. In-conjunction to the cold front,
the dryline, which we have been watching for several days now will
also contribute to the potential thunderstorms development. Setup
overall tomorrow is a bit tricky. If the front moves faster to
the south, or capped environment remains, or in some model runs,
outflow from storms further east that develops shifts unstable air
further south, the Panhandles could miss out on any thunderstorm
chances altogether. Some of the latest 26/12Z global and numerical
data try to paint this solution. The more aggressive CAMs/ECMWF
allow daytime heating to generate enough SBCAPE to break the cap
and form robust supercells and/or multicell clusters to form in
environment ahead of two aforementioned sfc boundaries. Very
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with MUCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg and sfc-6 km shear around 40 kts. Could
not even rule out a tornado just ahead of the cold front where the
best directional shear would be located. Best chance for this
kind of set up will be in the south central and southeastern TX
Panhandle. But again, this could happen if surface based
initiation can occur. There is still a chance the main cold front
moves too quickly or the environment is too capped to see any
severe storms. Will have to watch observation trends closely.

What does seem to be consistent in the latest data is the MLCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg lingering through tomorrow night.
Although capped at the surface by tomorrow night, perturbations
moving ENE into the Panhandles in the wake of the cold front could
generate a second round of thunderstorms with large hail the main
threat. H850-700 theta-e advection will be prevalent, even after
the front passes due to the perturbations tapping into some
southerly flow. This will help keep mid levels unstable for
overnight convection. Watching observational trends closely. High
temperatures will peak ahead of the front with all of the
Panhandles ranging from the lower to upper 80s.

Residual chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
the remainder of the forecast period. Perhaps some areas will get
a brief break from the precipitation during the day on Saturday as
the main dryline has not materialized after the latest round of
convection. Saturday night through Tuesday, several chances of
precipitation return to the Panhandles as latest 26/12Z global
model data tries to cut off a low over the SW CONUS and reinforce
its position with a Rex Block on the California coastline. This
may result in daily diurnal convection chances with southeasterly
surface flow returning and interacting with dryline in eastern
New Mexico. However, latest numerical data shows a more subtle
moisture source. Going throughout the long term forecast period,
thunderstorm chances are expected, but with each passing day, as
cooler temperatures are in store over the weekend into next week,
severe thunderstorms chances lower slightly each day.
Temperatures will stay below average Friday through the remainder
of May.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
235 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-270745-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
235 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Panhandles this
afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms may become severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A tornado is also
possible. Heavy rain could cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Panhandles
through Tuesday. Some of the storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             PANHANDLE               35.34N 101.39W
05/26/2021  M1.50 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             8 NNE GRUVER            36.36N 101.36W
05/26/2021  M2.00 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   STORM CHASER

            REPORT RECEIVED VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.

&&

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             BRYANS CORNER           36.62N 100.82W
05/26/2021  M0.88 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ACCUMULATING HAIL OCCURRING.

&&

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             1 N PANHANDLE           35.36N 101.38W
05/26/2021  M2.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE OF MEASURED 2
            INCH HAIL.

&&

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             PANHANDLE               35.35N 101.38W
05/26/2021  E2.50 INCH       CARSON             TX   PUBLIC

            PICTURE RECEIVED VIA TWITTER.

&&

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             4 SW PANHANDLE          35.31N 101.43W
05/26/2021  M2.50 INCH       CARSON             TX   PUBLIC

            PICTURE RECEIVED VIA TWITTER.

&&

BIEDA