Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
some strong to severe thunderstorms into tonight.  The front will
move south of the region tomorrow with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms ending as cooler and drier air moves in.  Less
humid conditions and pleasant weather are expected Saturday night
through Sunday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437 in effect
until 11 pm EDT for all of eastern NY.

A severe threat continues as the Capital Region with a severe
cell pounding the ALY city area with FQT and dangerous cloud to
ground city, small to large hail, strong winds and heavy rain.
Multiple outflow boundaries are lighting the fuse with the
extreme surface base instability over the region. Strong to
severe thunderstorms continue the next few hours.

Previous near term...

Some convection fired with a differential heating boundary
between the Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks/Tug Hill
Plateau for some strong to severe thunderstorms. We measured a
wind gust of 65 mph in Oppenheim, Fulton Co. in the NYS Mesonet.

The forecast area remains in a muggy air mass with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. PWATS based on the SPC RAP
Mesoanalysis are in the 1.3-1.7" range at 2000 UTC. The 12Z
KALY sounding had a PWAT of 1.39". The 0-6 km effective bulk
shear has increased to 20-30 kts.  SBCAPE is abundant in the
2000-4000 J/kg range, and the MLCAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg.  A weak
cap exists at the mid levels. The mid level lapse rates are
weak but strong upstream over western NY.  The better lifting
mechanism in terms of a prefrontal trough ahead of the cold
front does not arrive for the western zones until 21Z-00Z. A
few pop-up showers have developed near the western Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley, where the severe damage occurred.

The better low-level convergence occurs in late pm into the
early evening for some strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging
winds would be the main threat as DCAPE values approach or
exceed 1000 J/kg. The abundant CAPE would allow for taller
updrafts and pcpn loading and possible wet microbursts.
Multicells forming and organizing into a line or two will be
possible. Our greatest confidence in large hail and damaging
winds is across eastern NY. We will monitor for a watch
expansion into western New England.

Heat Advisory continues max temps in upper 80s to lower 90s
combined with the dewpoints in the 70s for max heat indices of
95-104F. Last oppressive day before some relief tomorrow. The
NYS mesonet shows many locations in the mid 90s to lower 100s in
the valley areas. The Advisory will run until 8 pm EDT.

The threat for severe thunderstorms should diminish before
midnight. Can not rule out some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms still ahead of the front. Low temps will be in
the 60s to around 70 though a few upper 50s are possible in the
southern Dacks.

The cold front should be moving across the western Adirondacks,
northern NY and the Mohawk Valley in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tomorrow...The cold front makes steady progress across the
region from northwest to southeast. A chance of showers or
isolated to scattered thunderstorms is possible from southern
VT, the Capital Region and northern Catskills. The limited
heating should preclude a severe threat but some stronger
thunderstorms with gusty winds may be possible close to I-84 in
the afternoon. Stronger cold advection should kick in during the
early afternoon from the Capital Region north and west and then
southeast. A distinct change in the air mass should be felt
with dewpoints falling into the 50s or lower north and west to
northwest winds. Again, this dewpoint boundary may not move
through the southern most zones until the late pm and early
evening. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys with a few mid 80s near KPOU. Expect upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s over the higher terrain.

Saturday night...Relief from the heat will be felt across the
entire area. Dewpoints will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s
with northwest to north winds with high pressure building in
from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada. Lows will be
in the 50s with some 40s over the southern Greens, southern
Dacks, and eastern Catskills.

Sunday...A beautiful close to the weekend with the 1025 hPa or
so anticyclone building in over NY and New England with lots of
sunshine and fair weather. The strong subsidence from the sfc
high will yield mostly sunny or sunny skies with light winds.
Max temps will be near or slightly below normal for mid-August.
Highs will be in the 75-80F range in the valleys, and mid 60s to
mid 70s over the higher terrain.

Sunday night into Monday...The fair and pleasant weather
continues into early next week with a cool night with lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s with perhaps some shallow radiational
mist over the river valleys with clear skies and light to calm
winds. High pressure remains over New England with mid and upper
level heights increasing along the East Coast. Temps increase
to seasonal levels with a slight increase in humidity levels but
still fairly comfortable for August with dewpoints in the 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a brief respite from very humid conditions, it looks like
humidity levels will climb through the middle/end of next week,
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as
ridging rebuilds off the eastern seaboard.

Shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to be modulated mainly by diurnal
heating, however additional forcing from any remnant tropical entity
from the southeast states could enhance coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, with best chances looking to be sometime next
Wed-Thu.

Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be the transition day in terms of
increasing humidity levels, with dewpoints climbing into the
lower/mid 60s by afternoon. Dewpoints will likely rise into the
mid/upper 60s by Wednesday afternoon, with perhaps some upper 60s to
lower 70s in valley areas late Wednesday into Friday. Highs will
mainly be in the lower/mid 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher
terrain, with min temps generally in the lower/mid 60s, except 55-60
across higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A prefrontal trough will focus some showers and thunderstorms
tonight. The cold front will move across the region late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon. High pressure will build in
for Saturday night.

VFR conditions are expected ahead of showers and thunderstorms
with a pre frontal disturbance. The showers and thunderstorms
will impact KALB prior to 02Z/SAT, and potentially
KPOU/KGFL/KPSF between 02-06Z/SAT. Conditions will briefly lower
to MVFR/IFR levels with some gusty winds.

Expect some partial clearing and some stratus or patchy MVFR/IFR
mist or fog may form, especially at KGFL/KPSF. KALB may also
have some form due to the recent wet ground. Some showers
associated with the front may arrive shortly before or after
12Z/SAT. We tried to address these showers with VCSH or TEMPO
groups with reductions to the MVFR levels. The cigs and vsbys
may briefly increase to VFR levels at KGFL/KPSF before the
showers arrive. The threat showers decreases after 17Z/SAT for
KALB/KGFL, but may continue for KPSF and KPOU depending on the
placement of the boundary.There is a small chance for
thunderstorms and later TAF issuances can address it.

Any storms this evening could result in briefly strong wind
gusts and a sharp wind shift to the west. Winds then become
light and variable overnight before turning west to northwest
tomorrow morning into the afternoon increasing to 8 to 12 kts
with some gusts to around 20 kts at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Monday Night: No Operational Impact.
NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
some strong to severe thunderstorms into tonight.  The front will
move south of the region tomorrow with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms ending as cooler and drier air moves in.  Less
humid conditions and pleasant weather are expected Saturday night
through Sunday as high pressure builds in.

The RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent in the
morning, and lower only to 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon.
The max RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range Sunday
morning.

The winds will be southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph tonight.
Expect the winds to shift toward the west and northwest at 5 to
15 mph on Saturday. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will persist
Saturday night.

Winds gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some heavy downpours and localized hydro issues are possible
late this afternoon into Saturday morning with any
thunderstorms. Dry weather returns late Saturday into early next
week.

Any storms with high precipitable water values could bring
some minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas
and isolated flash flooding. Some notable rises may occur on
the main stem rivers with heavy rainfall over them. However,
widespread main stem river flooding is not expected at this time.

Flows should lower over the weekend into early next week, as
high pressure ridges in.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be on Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs temperatures and high minimum temperatures:

August 13th
Albany NY: 73 degrees 2016 and 98 degrees 1947
Glens Falls: 72 degrees 2016 and 95 degrees 1944
Poughkeepsie: 76 degrees 1944 and 98 degrees 2005

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     047>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013-015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
838 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066-141100-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
838 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the eastern Capital Region,
Taconics, eastern Catskills, and mid Hudson Valley in eastern New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated to scattered non severe thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-
141100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
838 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga
Region, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, and the western Capital
Region of eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. Some
gusty winds and small hail is possible with locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated to scattered non severe thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
850 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

NYZ038-039-082-140130-
Southern Fulton NY-Northern Fulton NY-Southern Herkimer NY-
850 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Fulton and
southeastern Herkimer Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Middleville, or near Herkimer, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Dolgeville, Newport, Stratford, Middleville, Oppenheim,
Fairfield, Ingham Mills, Crum Creek, Garlock Corners, Curtis, Farrel
Corner, Countryman, Lotville, Rasbach Corner, Doxtater Corner,
Knappville, Burrell Corners, Kelhi Corners and Fical Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4318 7509 4325 7458 4323 7455 4301 7454
      4302 7468 4305 7476 4304 7476 4303 7474
      4306 7506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 266DEG 18KT 4310 7499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
851 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE WESTMERE          42.67N  73.86W
08/13/2021                   ALBANY             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103942

ATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
853 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CASTLETON-ON-HUDSON     42.53N  73.75W
08/13/2021                   RENSSELAER         NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON SCOTT AVENUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103943

DBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
856 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SELKIRK             42.53N  73.85W
08/13/2021                   ALBANY             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103945

ATE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
900 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

MAZ001-VTZ013>015-140145-
Northern Berkshire MA-Eastern Windham VT-Western Windham VT-
Bennington VT-
900 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Berkshire, southeastern Bennington and southwestern Windham Counties
through 945 PM EDT...

At 900 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stamford, or near North Adams, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
North Adams, Monroe, Wilmington, Stamford, Readsboro, Whitingham,
Dover, Marlboro, Halifax, Jacksonville, Searsburg, Hairpin Turn,
Goose City, Readsboro Falls, East Dover, Four Corners,
Heartwellville, West Halifax, Whitcomb Summit and Whitneyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4273 7284 4274 7302 4270 7302 4270 7296
      4266 7306 4275 7316 4300 7282 4281 7261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 232DEG 19KT 4274 7305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DBT

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