Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
this evening. Some may be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
The storms will taper off overnight, but additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, along with
cooler conditions. It will be dry on Thursday with temperatures
below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 pm for the
Capital District, Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley, western Mohawk
Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region in
east central New York, and southern Vermont...

As of 215 pm, a complex of showers and thunderstorms is pushing
across southeastern Ontario ahead of a shortwave trough. SPC
Mesoanalysis depicts 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE downstream of this
complex over much of NY, so no reason to see it weakening until
at least sunset. A couple of isolated storms have developed in
the Lake George Saratoga region, with one recently becoming
severe. Still feel this activity will be more isolated and
confined north of Albany until the better forcing arrives this
evening as forecast soundings suggest points south remain
slightly capped and deep layer shear remains less than 20 kt.
More widespread activity still looks to be 21Z- 03Z this evening
as forcing increases due to the approach of the aforementioned
midlevel trough and surface front. Deep layer shear will
increase to 20-30 kt as well. Highest likelihood of these storms
maintaining strong to severe intensity is from the Capital
District north and west where SPC has upgraded to slight risk.
There is at least some risk of storms maintaining their
intensity further east as well past sunset, but this is less
certain. Main threat is damaging winds, although large hail
cannot be ruled out especially if any more discrete/cellular
convection develops.

Otherwise, have added haze to the grids with most ob sites
reporting 4-7SM vsby due to smoke from wildfires out west.

Tonight, strong to possibly severe storms may linger through
around midnight east of Albany. The remainder of the night
should be more tranquil with a few scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms possible. The midlevel trough axis remains to the
west. Lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday, the core of the midlevel trough will be swinging
through the area. This is a rather cold trough, with 500 mb
temps around -14C, which is around the 10 percentile for late
July. The cold midlevel temps will contribute to steep midlevel
lapse rates of 6-7 C/km (stronger on the GFS compared with the
NAM). As diurnal heating commences, this should result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing starting in the
late morning. Most of our area should be in a cold
advection/post frontal regime for most of the day, which should
limit SBCAPE to 1000 J/kg or less. However, portions of the
eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, and
southern Berkshires will heat up comparatively more in advance
of the best forcing associated with the midlevel trough axis,
and may see some weak low-level convergence to help foster
stronger updrafts as well. SBCAPE should be a little better here
at 1000-1500 J/kg, with good deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt. The
steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support a
large hail threat from early afternoon to early evening here,
with damaging wind gusts also possible if cellular activity can
congeal later in the day. Elsewhere, at least small hail and
gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop in
the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 60s north to the
low 80s south.

The storms should quickly dissipate around and after sunset
Wednesday as higher pressures build in from the west along with
a drier airmass with PWATs falling below an inch. Clouds should
clear out with low temperatures dropping into the 50s.

Thursday into Thursday night looks tranquil as the trough cuts
off over the Canadian Maritimes and midlevel flow goes
northwesterly locally. PWATs remain lower than an inch with
dewpoints back into the 50s. Highs look to be cooler than normal
in the upper 60s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
One trailing piece of upper energy tracks through our region Friday
with some cold air aloft and decent midlevel lapse rates but most of
the upper cold pool and instability will be in New England and
heading east through the day along with the mean upper trough axis.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with this last
piece of upper energy as the core of the cooler boundary layer air
spreads over our region. Highs Friday in the mid 70s to around 80
with around 70 higher terrain.

Drier weather Saturday but continued NW upper flow with embedded
small upper impulses track through our region Saturday night into
Sunday and exiting Monday into Monday night. The exact timing and
track of the upper energy and reinforcing of low level cooler air is
still in question. Indicating scattered showers Saturday night and
Sunday night with possible thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon. Coverage should be scattered and since instability will
be best in the afternoons, not too unstable, but unstable enough
that any chances for thunderstorms would be in the afternoons.

So, Sunday and Monday should not be washouts and there will be
periods of dry weather and a few breaks in the clouds outside of the
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs Saturday and Sunday in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 80s
with cooler in higher terrain each day. Potentially drier weather
Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s with some 70s higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Smoke from wildfires in the western US/Canada has led to persistent
haze and reductions in visibility to MVFR conditions throughout the
morning. Smoke/haze is expected to persist through the afternoon, so
expecting visibilities to remain between 4-7SM across the region
through the next several hours.

Other focus is potential for thunderstorms this afternoon. As of
1:00 PM EDT, a couple of thundershowers have developed in Saratoga
county in the vicinity of GFL. As we head into the second half
of the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with
damaging winds, cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall. Some hail also cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms look
to move from northwest to southeast, with the best chance for
thunderstorms between 5 PM and 11 PM. Tonight, VFR conditions
are expected behind thunderstorms, although some fog/mist cannot
be ruled out at PSF and GFL, but confidence is not high enough
to include at this time. After sunrise tomorrow, conditions will
improve to VFR at all sites. There could be a few showers for
the last few hours of the TAF period tomorrow, with the best
chance at PSF.

Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 kts through the afternoon.
Higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Winds become light and
variable tonight and increase to around 5 kt out of the northwest
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday with RH values only falling into the 60 to 70 percent
range. It will be cooler with light northwesterly winds as well.
On Thursday, mostly sunny skies are expected with drier minimum
RH values in the 45 to 55 percent range. Light to moderate
northwesterly winds are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Soils remain quite wet as much of the HSA has experienced
150-400 percent of normal precipitation over the past week, with
isolated spots up to 600 percent in the Berkshires. Flood
warnings remain in effect along the Housatonic in Connecticut
for minor river flooding.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
this evening into Wednesday. Although locally heavy downpours
are possible, widespread flooding issues or flash flood threats
are not expected at this time as the showers/storms are expected
to move more quickly over the next couple of days. However,
given the wet soils and low flash flood guidance, an isolated
flash flood cannot be ruled out, with minor flooding of low
lying/poor drainage and urban areas also possible. Dry weather
returns for Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-211200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Capital District,
Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley, western Mohawk Valley, southern
Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region in east central New
York, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Also, minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas
will be possible, along with isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, some of which may
contain locally gusty winds and small hail.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ001-NYZ058-059-063-211200-
Northern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Ulster-
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern Berkshires in western
Massachusetts and the eastern Catskills in east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon
and evening, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts,
along with locally heavy downpours. Also, minor flooding of low
lying, poor drainage and urban areas will be possible, along with
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, some of which may
contain locally gusty winds and small hail.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ060-061-064>066-211200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, the
southern Berkshires in western Massachusetts and the Mid Hudson
Valley in east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for this evening,
with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts, along with
locally heavy downpours. Also, minor flooding of low lying, poor
drainage and urban areas will be possible, along with isolated flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. In addition,
locally heavy downpours will be possible which may produce minor
flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban areas along with
isolated flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

NYZ041-083-084-202045-
Southern Washington-Southeast Warren-Northern Saratoga-
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN...
NORTHEASTERN SARATOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 357 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over West Glens
Falls, or over Glens Falls, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, West Glens Falls, Glens Falls
North, South Glens Falls, Argyle, Jewell Corner, Goose Island, Middle
Falls, Gansevoort, Bald Mountain, Hartman, Danielstown, Lick Springs,
Fortsville, North Argyle, Callahans Corners, Clarks Corner and
Reynolds Corners.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 17S and 19.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4325 7380 4335 7372 4326 7339 4309 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 299DEG 13KT 4327 7367

Rathbun

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             VICTORY                 43.09N  73.59W
07/20/2021  M1.25 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER JUST SOUTH OF
            SCHUYLERVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103759

RATHBUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
534 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             4 S GANSEVOORT          43.14N  73.66W
07/20/2021  M1.25 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER. TIME ADJUSTED
            BASED ON REPORT. CORRECTED WITH MORE PRECISE LOCATION.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103759

BGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     LIGHTNING        2 NW WEST GLENS FALLS   43.32N  73.72W
07/20/2021                   WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK HOUSE RESULTING IN A FIRE. NO
            INJURIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103760

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

NYZ032-033-202315-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
628 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 628 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Eaton Campground to 6 miles
north of McKeever. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Speculator, Old Forge, Inlet, Blue Mountain Lake, Lake Eaton
Campground, Brown Tract Pond Campground, Limekiln Lake Campground,
Big Moose, Nicks Lake Campground, Lake Durant Campground, Eighth Lake
Campground, Eagle Bay, Forked Lake Public Campground, Raquette Lake,
Golden Beach Campground, Alger Island Public Campground, Long Lake,
Eagle Nest, Minnehaha and Carter Station.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4397 7425 4392 7434 4382 7422 4363 7460
      4364 7511 4375 7512 4407 7448 4408 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 267DEG 34KT 4403 7446 4370 7515

Rathbun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

NYZ032-033-202330-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL HAMILTON
AND CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 646 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 14 miles south of
Limekiln Lake Campground, or 16 miles southeast of Old Forge, moving
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Speculator, Lake Pleasant, Moffitt Beach Campground, Lewey Lake
Campground, Caswell Lake, Sled Harbor, Atwell, Perkins Clearing, West
Canada Lakes and Herkimer Landing.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4340 7499 4358 7501 4369 7438 4346 7430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 262DEG 30KT 4351 7480

Rathbun