Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
922 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of
a cold front. This cold front will pass to the east of the region
tonight as a much cooler air mass will be ushered in its wake.
Chances for showers will lingering Tuesday as a disturbance in the
upper levels of the atmosphere moves overhead.  A return toward
warmer weather arrives later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect 11 PM EDT for all of
eastern NY except Herkimer and Hamilton Counties, and all of
western New England.

Update...as of 922 pm EDT...The first full day summer was
steamy and full of mother natures fireworks with strong to
severe thunderstorms impacting locations north and west of the
Capital Region. However, plenty of instability remains in place
from ALY south and east per the special 21 UTC and the 00 UTC
soundings. The MLCAPE is still around 1700 J/kg with a supercell
composite parameter of 11.4. The PWAT increased to 1.84" with a
0-6 km bulk shear value of 30 kts. The unidirectional SW flow
above H850 to H300 indicates a linear of squall line development
continues...and the latest KENX radar indicates one. Several
severe thunderstorm warnings remain out and the watch was
coordinated with SPC and neighboring WFOs to continue it until
03Z for the Lake George Region, northern Capital Region, central
and eastern Mohawk Valley and southern VT. The watch continues
further south and east. A diminishing trend is expected between
03Z and 05Z. Lightning will continue to be frequent with bursts
of heavy rain.

Previous near term until Tuesday...

Pre-frontal trough axis will clear the region this evening with
the cold frontal passage slow by about 6-9 hours and should be
east of the southeast CWA by 12Z Tuesday. Clouds are expected to
linger through the night as winds become west- northwest in the
wake of the frontal passage. Overnight lows should range from
the lower half of the 60s for the Hudson Valley and Litchfield
County locations and 50s for the higher terrain.

Through Tuesday, seems enough baroclinicity and the frontal
boundary slowing down its forward propagation due to near
parallel flow aloft and the approach of a pv-anomaly from the
lower Ohio Valley that a period of showers or light rain may
redevelop. Per the latest NCEP Model Suite and international
guidance, seems the southeast 1/2 or 2/3rds will be under the
influence for additional wet weather through the daylight hours.
The ECMWF remains the wetter of the numerical guidance as it is
stronger with the pv-anomaly with the NAM not too far behind.
The GFS remains the most progressive with the ICON somewhat in
the middle of the guidance and close to the GGEM. So we will
increase PoPs back to likely and under cloud coverage, the
temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than those observed this
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly tranquil, cooler and less humid air mass as surface
ridge crests across the region through the middle of the week.
However, H500 trough axis is expected to remain in place so
likely diurnally driven cumulus field can be expected but should
remain dry. As H850 temperatures hover into the middle single
digits, afternoon highs Wednesday will generally be into the 60s
and lower half of the 70s for valley locations and overnight
lows generally into the 40s for the region (some upper 30s for
the Dacks Tuesday night).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned surface ridge axis is forecast, per global
model consensus, to slide off the northeast shoreline during
Thursday. The return southerly flow around the periphery of the
high will allow for warm advection to commence from the Ohio
Valley and into the northeast corridor. This should allow for
gradual boundary layer warmth with highs Thursday returning
close to 80F for valley locations and 70s elsewhere.

Humidity will slowly increase for the remainder of the extended
period as the combination of Gulf of Mexico moisture and
Atlantic moisture begin to converge across the middle Atlantic
and northeast corridors. Potential for some marine influence
clouds to advect in later Friday into Friday night and, per the
ECWMF/GGEM, a shower or two will be possible.

Then heading into the weekend, rather low confidence forecast as
too how far east an upstream frontal boundary approaches for
increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF
remains the strongest with the upper high over the western
Atlantic which keeps this boundary well upstream. The GFS/GGEM
is weaker with this upper high with the ICON somewhat in the
middle of the guidance. So, per coordination with WPC, we will
lean toward a slightly wetter side of the guidance envelope at
this time. Chance to scattered through the first half of the
weekend then into lower likely PoPs for the second half of the
weekend. Temperatures will equally be as challenging as ensemble
mean suggests lower 80s for valley locations with generally 70s
expected and overnight lows generally into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move towards and across the region tonight
into tomorrow morning. A weak disturbance along the front will
keep the rain going into the late morning into the early
afternoon before gradual clearing from the west.

VFR conditions will occur ahead of showers and thunderstorms,
but conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and possibly brief IFR
conditions with the showers and storms moving through 00Z-
04Z/TUE. Some brief gusty winds to 30-35 kts are also possible.
Isolated stronger gusts are possible.  The winds will shift to
the west to southwest in the wake of the front at 5-10 kts. Some
lower clouds will persists in the wake of the initial front.
Cigs may hover at 3-4 kft AGL in the wake of the front with some
mid level clouds 8-12 kft AGL. Expect the rain to build back in
with a weak disturbance along the front between 11Z-15Z/TUE.
PROB30 groups were used to bring the rain in across the TAF
sites, and it should diminish quickly in the late morning into
the afternoon from northwest/west to the east/southeast. MVFR
cigs/vsbys may occur and linger the longest at KPOU/KPSF until
16Z-18Z/TUE. Expect low VFR conditions thereafter with cigs in
the 3.5-6 kft AGL range but drier weather settling back in.

The winds be from the west to northwest at 5-10 kts in the late
morning into the early afternoon, and then be northwest to north
at around 10 kts for the mid to late pm.

Outlook...

Tuesday into Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday through Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southerly winds will persist into early this evening
ahead of showers and thunderstorms that will occur along and
ahead of a cold front, some containing heavy rainfall. This cold
front will pass to the east of the region tonight as a much
cooler air mass will be ushered in its wake. Chances for showers
will lingering Tuesday as a disturbance in the upper levels of
the atmosphere moves overhead, especially to the southeast of
the Adirondacks. This will keep relative humidity levels
elevated through Tuesday. A return toward warmer and drier
weather arrives later this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thunderstorms, some containing heavy rainfall, will result in
isolated flood/flash flood threat through this evening.
Otherwise ponding of water on roadways and standing water in low
lying areas is expected with urban flooding of poor drainage
areas possible.

Additional light rainfall is expected on Tuesday with mainly
areas to the southeast of the Adirondacks. Fair weather is then
expected to to close out the work week with the weather turning
unsettled for the upcoming weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-220300-
Southern Litchfield-Northern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-Southern
Berkshire-
1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LITCHFIELD AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTIES...

At 1023 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Housatonic, or
near Great Barrington, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsfield, Torrington, New Milford, North Adams, Great Barrington,
Sherman, Adams, Thomaston, Williamstown, Lee, Lenox, Sheffield,
Cheshire, Kent, Sharon, Becket, Norfolk, Otis, Litchfield and Canaan.

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7344 4169 7352 4220 7347
      4275 7326 4274 7303 4270 7302 4270 7297
      4239 7301 4238 7307 4233 7306 4231 7300
      4216 7303 4215 7307 4204 7306 4204 7302
      4159 7306 4156 7316 4153 7316 4148 7336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 240DEG 49KT 4226 7340

MSE

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