Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
before diminishing tonight. Temperatures will be cooler than normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected Tuesday, but sunshine will return for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 pm, convection has fired over the Mohawk Valley where
clouds cleared out earlier along a low level convergence
boundary. Temps there warmed into the mid- 70s which, combined
with a pocket of midlevel lapse rates around 7 K/km, contributed
to a local maximum of MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg. Midlevel forcing for
ascent is increasing here as a shortwave trough approaches.

Going forward this evening, showers and storms should become
more widespread from west to east from the midafternoon into the
evening ahead of the shortwave trough. Areas along/east of I-87
will likely remain too stable to support vigorous surface based
convection. West of I-87, still a marginal risk for a
strong/borderline severe wind gust/large hail. Intense leading
storm already dropped golfball size hail over southern Herkimer
County. Will continue to monitor potential for locally heavy
rainfall leading to flooding over areas that have received
repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

Tonight, coverage of showers/thunderstorms will decrease from
west to east 00-03Z. Patchy fog will become possible due to
moist ground and calm/light southerly winds. Lows will be mainly
in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday, anomalously deep 500 mb low (-1 to -2 stdev) will drift
over the forecast area. Diurnal heating beneath cool
temperatures aloft should generate scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms from late morning into the afternoon.
SBCAPE is forecast to stay in the 250-750 J/kg range with deep
layer shear less than 25 kt where CAPE is on the upper end of
the range. So severe weather is not expected, but some small
hail cannot be ruled out in stronger updrafts. Highs should be
warmer than Monday in most areas given potential for at least
partial sunshine, but still below normal in the mid-60s to
mid-70s.

Drier airmass will begin to filter in Tuesday night, and a
reinforcing midlevel wave will keep troughing around into
Wednesday. The result will be a seasonably cool but dry period
with mainly clear skies. Lows are expected to be in the mid-40s
to mid-50s Tuesday night, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s
Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west
Wednesday night, which should result in good radiational cooling
conditions despite the short night. Lows mainly in the 40s
expected, around 5-10F below normal most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through Friday
as upper-level ridging also develops. Mainly dry weather is expected
through Friday as a result. Highs on Thursday will range from the
upper 60s in the higher terrain to the upper 70s in the valleys.
Friday will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the lower 70s to
lower 80s.

The next upper-level trough will push across the region late Friday
through Saturday night with clouds and rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. This system will depart the area on Sunday, though a
few showers may linger across far northern areas. Uncertainty in the
model guidance begins early next week and may be based on the
evolution of a possible tropical feature across the Gulf of
Mexico/Southern US.

High temperatures Saturday through Monday will range from the mid-
to upper 60s in the Adirondacks to the lower to perhaps mid-80s in
the mid-Hudson Valley. Low temperatures Thursday night through
Sunday night will generally be in the 40s and 50s, except 50s and
60s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
series of frontal boundaries will be the main weather challenge to
the ALY terminals through the 18z TAF cycle. The potential for
patches of mist (BR) or fog (FG) will be the secondary weather
concerns especially later tonight.

As of 1:40 pm EDT, all of the TAF sites were blanketed under a
broken to overcast deck of clouds due to continual back-building of
showers and storms. MVFR ceilings were sited at KALB/KGFL/KPOU with
cloud heights between 1,000-1,500ft. IFR conditions were reported at
KPSF due to ceilings under 1,000ft and mist (BR) reducing
visibilities to as low as 1 3/4 statute miles. These trends are
likely to continue over the next several hours.

As far as timing of the next round of showers and thunderstorms, the
window appears to range from 18z-02z. Have included a combination of
VCSH/VCTS and -SHRA over the TAF sites during this time frame. Per
the latest WSR-88D Doppler Radar scans, rain showers with some
embedded thunder have flared up east of Albany, just west of Albany,
and over the SW Dacks. GOES-16 Visible satellite imagery depicts a
shortwave over western New York moving east with clearing over
central New York and temperatures in the 70s. As this weather
feature shifts east, its possible that showers and thunderstorms
expand in coverage. Again, the best timing will be between 18z-02z.
So expect for MVFR/IFR conditions to persist for the TAF sites
through much, if not all, of the TAF cycle.

Tonight, after 02-04z, we may get a break from showers and
thunderstorms. Even though there will be plenty of cloud coverage
overhead to limit radiational cooling, it's possible that we could
still see patches of mist/fog in additional to low stratus as
mentioned above esp. between 06z-12z. KPSF is most favored given the
current obs and trends. This potential is due to the large amount of
low-level available moisture helping to keep dewpoint depressions
low.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest 5-15 kts into this evening
before becoming light and variable to calm tonight. Winds will shift
out of the northwest 5-10 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures will continue for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Tuesday, a disturbance will generate scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from the late
morning into the afternoon. Minimum RH values are expected to
only reach the 50 to 70 percent range with moderate westerly
winds. Much drier air will arrive on Wednesday with minimum RH
values in the 30 to 40 percent range with sunny skies and
moderate NW winds promoting good drying conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple rounds of precipitation for areas along and north of
I-90 has resulted in a general 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall,
although locally up to 2.00 inches has occurred in small swaths.
Potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through this evening will bring the potential for localized
flooding over areas that are susceptible given earlier
rainfall. Otherwise, widespread hydro issues are not
anticipated.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday, but amounts are expected to be hydrologically
insignificant. Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Evbuoma
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson

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