Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
419 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain and may be
slow moving, resulting in the potential for localized flash
flooding. Warm and humid conditions will persist tonight. One
more humid and very warm day in store for Wednesday, before a
cold front pushes through. More seasonable and less humid
weather expected for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Flash Flood Watch issued for Greene, Ulster, Columbia,
Dutchess, Berkshire and Litchfield Counties through 10 PM.

Two areas of showers and thunderstorms are occurring late this
afternoon: one from around Albany southward and another across
the SE Adirondacks and Lake George area. Embedded downpours
continuing with heavy rainfall rates due to anomalously high
PWATs (+1 to +2 STDEV), weak flow aloft and warm rain processes
from high freezing levels. We have seen small areas of 2-3 inch
rainfall south of Albany within persistent/slow-moving storms.
Some storms contained strong wind gusts earlier on as CAPE
values were quite large despite weak deep layer shear < 20 kt.
With the fairly widespread convection, instability has decreased
except for far eastern Berkshire county where a stronger storm
was moving through around 400 PM. Dewpoints and PWATs remain
quite high so will continue to mention locally heavy rainfall
associated with any thunderstorms.

SPC Mesoanalysis indicating CAPE reloading across central NY
due to breaks of sunshine. Additional short wave energy expected
to move through this evening resulting a continued threat for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Convective showers
and storms should have a bit more motion this evening, but
could still produce some downpours. Activity should diminish
overnight as instability wanes. Still, isolated to widely
scattered shower cannot be ruled out in the moist/humid
environment. It will be another warm/muggy night with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday, a cold front will gradually push southward from SE
Canada. Ahead of the front, an anomalously moist and warm air
mass will still be in place. Expecting at least some filtered
sunshine, which should result in moderate instability developing
with around 1000-2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE by afternoon. 0-6 km shear
still forecast to be weak < 20 kt, so again pulse-type storms
with locally heavy rainfall should occur. Similar to Tuesday,
isolated wet downbursts with gusty/strong winds will be
possible, but forcing does not look overly impressive so
coverage of expected convection should be scattered.
Temperatures will be very warm again, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s in most areas. With dewpoints remaining in the 60s to
lower 70s, heat index values will peak around 90-94 in the
Hudson Valley. Criteria looks just short of advisory criteria,
but will be another very warm and humid day.

Scattered showers and storms will be concentrated across the
southern part of the region by Wednesday evening as the cold
front pushes southward. Chances will decrease from north to
south during the evening, with dry conditions overnight.
Drier/cooler air will filter in behind the cold front, with
dewpoints dropping from the 60s into the 40s/50s from north to
south. Low temperatures will be cooler than recent nights,
ranging from the 50s(north) to lower 60s(south).

Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler, but still above normal
(upper 70s to mid 80s) with dry and mostly sunny conditions
expected. High pressure will be building southward from Quebec,
with a weak northerly flow. Humidity levels will be much lower
with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. It will be continued dry
Thursday night, as high pressure settles southward across New
England. Lows Thursday night will be much cooler, with
widespread lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow is expected to be across the Northeast with short
waves passing through the trough as we close out the work week
and head into the weekend with ridging extending northward
across the Great Lakes Region. There are differences amongst the
guidance on how quickly the troughing exits and how quickly the
ridge flattens as it shifts eastward over the weekend as short
energy moves through the flow. Overall looking chances for
showers from time to time with thunderstorms possible with
daytime heating. The timing for the rounds of storms will become
clearer as we get closer to the end of the week. The best
chances for fair weather still appears to be Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

Seasonable temperatures are expected with highs mainly in the
70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand across the region
this afternoon in the midst of a very warm and humid airmass.
Most of the storms are concentrated along and south of the
Capital District, with storms currently impacting KPOU. As the
afternoon progresses, storms will likely fill in at KALB/KPSF
with lesser chances at KGFL.

Generally, flying conditions should be MVFR to VFR except
within the heavier downpours/strong thunderstorms. These storms
are slow movers, so conditions may be deteriorated for longer
than usual.

Storms should weaken with the loss of daytime heating this
evening with some light showers lingering past 00-02Z/Wed. Then,
low level moisture/BR will stick around, and will likely reduce
visibilities through the remainder of the overnight period.

VFR conditons should return beyond 14Z/Wed when the low level
moisture begins to mix out and lift.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain and may be
slow moving, resulting in the potential for localized flash
flooding. Warm and humid conditions will persist tonight. One
more humid and very warm day in store for Wednesday, before a
cold front pushes through. More seasonable and less humid
weather expected for the end of the week.

Relative humidity will increase to maximum values of 90 to 100
percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will generally
be between 50 and 60 percent. RH will increase to around 70 to
90 percent Wednesday night.

Winds tonight will be westerly around 5 mph or less, becoming
northwest on Wednesday around 5 to 10 mph. Winds Wednesday night
will be northerly around 5 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash Flood Watch issued for Greene, Ulster, Columbia,
Dutchess, Berkshire and Litchfield Counties through 10 PM.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms with downpours will continue
into this evening. Greatest threat for flash flooding will be
over the watch area, although most of the region is at risk for
isolated flash flooding. Favorable conditions for high rainfall
rates as well as slow moving thunderstorms are in place.
Localized flash flooding most especially likely in low lying,
poor drainage and urban areas. Additional showers and storms are
possible overnight but coverage should decrease. A cold front
on Wednesday could allow some showers and storms to return,
especially for areas along and south of I-90.

Cooler and mainly drier conditions are expected Thursday into
the weekend, with just some scattered showers possible Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperatures for June 8th

Albany, NY: 69F set in 1884
Glens Falls, NY: 71F set in 1999
Poughkeepsie, NY: 70F set in 1999

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ058>061-
     063>066.
MA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JLV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV/Speciale
CLIMATE...Speciale

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
443 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
443 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
and the central and southern Taconics of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values on Wednesday could approach 95 degrees in parts of
the Hudson Valley due to the combination of high humidity and
very warm temperatures.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will be
capable of producing heavy rain and could result in isolated flooding
of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
443 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western and southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Capital District, northern
Taconics and the Lake George Saratoga Region of eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous slow moving showers and scattered thunderstorms will
continue into this evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. This
could result in isolated flash flooding especially in low lying, poor
drainage and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values on Wednesday could approach 95 degrees in parts of
the Hudson Valley due to the combination of high humidity and
very warm temperatures.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will be
capable of producing heavy rain and could result in isolated flooding
of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
251 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

CTZ001-081915-
Northern Litchfield-
251 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...

At 251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Winsted, or 7
miles north of Torrington, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winsted, Colebrook, Robertsville, Barkhampsted Center, Mooreville,
Winchester Center, Riverton, Nelsons Corner, Mill Brook, Grantville
and Pleasant Valley.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4193 7293 4187 7313 4197 7320 4202 7308
      4204 7301 4197 7303 4197 7289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 243DEG 11KT 4194 7309

KSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     LIGHTNING        1 NE CLINTONDALE        41.70N  74.04W
06/08/2021                   ULSTER             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING STARTED A HOUSE FIRE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2103278

SND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

MAZ025-082015-
Southern Berkshire-
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...

At 347 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Otis, or 9
miles east of Great Barrington, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Becket, Otis, Sandisfield, Monterey, Washington, Tyringham, Otis Wood
Lanes, Leisure Lee, Hartsville, Algerie Four Corners, Bonny Rigg
Corners, North Otis, Montville, Hephzibah Heights, Becket Center,
East Lee, West Becket, East Otis, Cold Spring and West Otis.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4224 7301 4215 7303 4215 7307 4212 7306
      4211 7307 4211 7321 4222 7333 4239 7315
      4237 7307 4233 7306 4231 7303 4231 7300
      4225 7300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 233DEG 21KT 4219 7317

KSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

NYZ042-043-083-082045-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-Northern Warren-
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WARREN
AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 401 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Warrensburg,
moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Whitehall, Hartford, Comstock, Bolton Landing, Mount
Hope, Bolton, Lake George, Fort Ann, Shelving Rock, South Bay,
Cleverdale, North Granville, South Bay Village, Truthville, Grays
Corner, Brayton, West Granville, East Whitehall and Rockhurst.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 23.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Lake George, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4334 7333 4341 7361 4341 7363 4345 7381
      4359 7378 4360 7343 4359 7343 4357 7339
      4358 7338 4360 7338 4360 7330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 274DEG 21KT 4350 7369

KSL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
515 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

VTZ013-014-082200-
Western Windham-Bennington-
515 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BENNINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES...

At 514 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stamford, or
near North Adams, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Readsboro, Whitingham, Readsboro Falls, Medburyville and
Heartwellville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4274 7312 4281 7318 4288 7290 4274 7279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 260DEG 12KT 4277 7305

JPV