Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Watches in 2021
Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Albany, NY
NWS Albany, NY issued this flash flood watch at Jul 11, 2021, 3:52 AM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Jul 11, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 29 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 11, 2021, 3:52 AM EDT (07:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 11, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2021, 12:56 AM EDT
- In force
- 29 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Albany, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 1 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1587 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
204 WGUS61 KALY 110752 FFAALY URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 NYZ038>041-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-112115- /O.NEW.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, Frankfort, Middle Falls, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Glens Falls, Caroga Lake, Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Herkimer, Delanson, Johnstown, Mohawk, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, Woodford State Park, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, Guilford Center, Stamford, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, and Schenectady 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in New York, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham. * From this evening through Monday afternoon. * Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. * The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ IAA
8 follow-up statements
460 WGUS61 KALY 111927 FFAALY URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-121000- /O.EXA.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-Western Albany- Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer- Including the cities of Livingstonville, Albany, Eagle Bridge, Middleburgh, Jefferson, Gilboa, Altamont, Berne, Great Barrington, Pittsfield, Berlin, Preston Hollow, Hoosick Falls, Knox, Breakabeen, Stephentown, North Blenheim, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, Cobleskill, South Egremont, Troy, Westerlo, Dalton, and Sandisfield 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Albany has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of western Massachusetts and east central New York, including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In east central New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Schoharie, Western Albany and Western Rensselaer. * From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon. * Rain will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. * The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NYZ038>041-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-121000- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, Frankfort, Middle Falls, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Glens Falls, Caroga Lake, Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Herkimer, Delanson, Johnstown, Mohawk, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, Woodford State Park, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, Guilford Center, Stamford, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, and Schenectady 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in New York, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham. * From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon. * Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. * The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Rathbun
040 WGUS61 KALY 111934 FFAALY URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 CTZ001-013-NYZ058>061-063>066-121015- /O.EXB.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Kingston, Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, Jefferson Heights, Athens, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, Hunter, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, Hudson, Oakville, New Lebanon, West Hurley, Windham, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Coxsackie, Ellenville, Tannersville, Cairo, Catskill, Thomaston, Prattsville, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling 334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Albany has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New York, Eastern Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Greene, Eastern Ulster, Western Columbia, Western Dutchess, Western Greene and Western Ulster. * From Monday afternoon through late Monday night. * Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. * The ground is wet from recent rainfall and locally heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-121015- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, Great Barrington, Saratoga Lake, Pittsfield, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Hoosick Falls, Woodford State Park, Stamford, Cobleskill, Little Falls, Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, Stephentown, North Blenheim, West Glens Falls, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Middle Falls, Cambridge, South Egremont, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, Guilford Center, Troy, Caroga Lake, Westerlo, Dalton, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, Schenectady, and Sandisfield 334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of western Massachusetts, New York and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham. * From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon. * Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. * The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Rathbun
275 WGUS61 KALY 120744 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 NYZ058>061-120845- /O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia- Including the cities of Tannersville, Jefferson Heights, Cairo, Catskill, Hunter, Athens, New Lebanon, Coxsackie, Prattsville, Windham, and Hudson 344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of east central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Columbia, Eastern Greene, Western Columbia and Western Greene has been cancelled. Heavy rainfall is no longer expected $$ MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-121800- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, Great Barrington, Saratoga Lake, Pittsfield, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Hoosick Falls, Woodford State Park, Stamford, Cobleskill, Little Falls, Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, Stephentown, North Blenheim, West Glens Falls, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Middle Falls, Cambridge, South Egremont, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, Guilford Center, Troy, Caroga Lake, Westerlo, Dalton, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, Schenectady, and Sandisfield 344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of western Massachusetts, New York and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham. * Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches along and north of I-90 is expected through early this afternoon. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-122100- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling 344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight. * Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rainfall. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DBT
574 WGUS61 KALY 120953 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-121100- /O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga- Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer- Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington- Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, Duanesburg, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, North Blenheim, Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Hoosick Falls, Cobleskill, Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, Stephentown, Caroga Lake, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, Middle Falls, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, North Easton, Troy, Westerlo, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, and Schenectady 553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central New York and eastern New York, including the following areas, in east central New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In eastern New York, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Southern Fulton and Southern Herkimer has been cancelled. The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Rainfall is no longer expected to pose a flash flooding risk. $$ MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-121800- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham- Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Great Barrington, Brattleboro, Woodford State Park, South Egremont, Pittsfield, West Brattleboro, Hancock, Londonderry, Florida, North Adams, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, Stamford, Bennington, Stratton, Dalton, Pownal, and Sandisfield 553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of western Massachusetts and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham. * Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * Additional rainfall of up to an inch is possible through early this afternoon. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-122100- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling 553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight. * Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rainfall. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DBT
759 WGUS61 KALY 121436 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-121545- /O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham- Eastern Windham- Including the cities of Great Barrington, Brattleboro, Woodford State Park, South Egremont, Pittsfield, West Brattleboro, Hancock, Londonderry, Florida, North Adams, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, Stamford, Bennington, Stratton, Dalton, Pownal, and Sandisfield 1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of western Massachusetts and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Berkshire county. In southern Vermont, Bennington and Windham counties have been cancelled. The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. $$ CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-130000- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling 1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight. * Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rainfall. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ JLV
621 WGUS61 KALY 121737 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 CTZ001-013-121845- /O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield- Including the cities of Oakville, New Milford, Thomaston, Terryville, Torrington, and Gaylordsville 137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for Litchfield county, Connecticut has been cancelled. The Flood Watch is cancelled. $$ NYZ063>066-130200- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown 137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of east central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster. * Through late tonight. * Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rainfall. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ JLV
779 WGUS61 KALY 121955 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 NYZ063>066-130200- /O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of east central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster. * Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday. * Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rainfall. * Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise out of their banks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ JLV
972 WGUS61 KALY 130456 FFAALY Flood Watch National Weather Service Albany NY 1256 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 NYZ063>066-130600- /O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown 1256 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of east central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western Ulster has been cancelled. The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. $$ DBT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 11, 1:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 1:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 118 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a comfortable night with some patchy fog possible. Increasing clouds tomorrow will give way to showers Sunday afternoon that become areas of rain overnight. Unsettled weather continues most of the week. Warm and humid conditions also return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Update... As of 1 am...Forecast is on track so only some minor adjustments were needed to temperatures, dew points and sky cover. Have high pressure across the region at the surface with weak ridging being induced aloft across the region downstream of the developing upper level low over the Midwest. GOES-16 Night Fog product shows stratus expanding across southern New England and Long Island. IR shows cirrus approaching from the west. With mainly clear skies, light winds and temperatures very close to the dewpoints conditions will be favorable for the development of fog and/or stratus until the cirrus really begins to stream overhead later at night. Still expecting low in the 50s with lower 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. Previous discussion [10:30PM]...High pressure building eastward out of southern Canada has kept skies mainly clear so far tonight and GOES16 water vapor/IR shows cirrus clouds still displaced well to our south in PA and the Ohio Valley. Current thinking is for skies to remain mainly clear through 06 UTC which is supported on the latest HREF. After this time, warm air advection associated with the cut-off low in the Midwest should push northward towards our region and allow cirrus clouds to gradually spread northeastward. Since these clouds are not expected to arrive until after 2AM, radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to cool towards their respective dew point and support patchy fog, especially in valley areas. Latest GOES16 nighttime microphysics shows patchy fog is already developing in parts of the southern Adirondacks. Once cirrus overspreads the region after 09 UTC and especially towards 12 UTC, fog should start to diminish. Otherwise, it will be a cool and comfortable night as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s with low dew points staying in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The weather pattern turns more active throughout the day Sunday and continues through Monday night. Sunday will start out dry with partial sunshine, but clouds will increase throughout the day as a warm front approaches from the south. An upper-level and surface low will move into the Missouri Valley and nearly stall as an upper- level ridge builds overhead. Over time, a surface high pressure system will dive southeastward into northern New England and Atlantic Canada. This will cause the warm front to stall near or directly over our region through Monday night. The location of the front will be the focus for rounds of rain and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Latest guidance suggests rain showers will increase in coverage from south to north Sunday afternoon as low-level moisture and precipitable water values increase (dewpoints rising into the 60s and precipitable water values rising above 1.50 inches). During Sunday night, a shower/thunderstorm complex is expect to lift northeastward over our region, then pivot east to east-southeastward over time (up and over the crest of the upper ridge). This can result in some training of shower and thunderstorm activity and locally heavy rainfall. There remains uncertainty where and when this pivot point is, but a general blend of model guidance favors areas along and north of I-90 at this time. Within this sector, 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible during Sunday night into early Monday morning with locally higher amounts. This could lead to some incidents of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received copious amounts of rain over the past week. In the wake of this complex, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night as the boundary remains nearby. Some guidance suggests the high is strong enough the boundary drops southward a bit on Monday, especially along the Hudson River and points east, reducing instability. It does not appear to be a complete washout and some drier periods are expected, but confidence is low on the timing. Overall, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable water values remain high, around 2 inches, and dewpoints remain in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s. As a result of the higher confidence in clouds and showers, high temperatures for both Sunday and Monday were lowered, now ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s Sunday and the mid-60s to lower 80s on Monday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s with some upper 50s possible in higher terrain areas, especially Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period will be mainly characterized by a humid and seasonably warm airmass, along with shower/thunderstorm development, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Tuesday, mid/upper level ridging will be in place extending from an anomalously strong anticyclone centered offshore the Carolinas. 500 mb heights in the mid-590s (dam) are +2 to +3 stdev, and 850 mb temps in the upper teens (C) are +1 to +2 SD. However, there continue to be signals that an easterly component to the low level flow will result in a somewhat maritime-influenced airmass which may keep temps not as hot as would otherwise be expected given the airmass at mid and upper levels. The ridge axis is modeled to shift east during the day, which could open the door for some convective development in the afternoon and evening, given a very moist airmass. However, NBM PoPs appear too high given the weak/subtle forcing for ascent, so have capped them in the low likely range, although with PWAT's in the +1 to +2 SD range, locally heavy downpours look possible. As for temperatures, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s, but with dewpoints likely above 70 in many areas. Should any prolonged breaks of sun occur, much hotter temps would be possible. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s to around 70. Wednesday, the midlevel ridge is replaced by low-amplitude troughing. With better forcing for ascent into a still very moist airmass, expect showers and thunderstorms to be more numerous. Temps are expected to be a bit warmer as well (near seasonal normals), as low-level flow veers southwesterly, with lower/mid 80s in most valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Nighttime lows again mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Thursday may end up being the day with the least coverage of showers this week due to weak/nonexistent forcing. However, can't rule out isolated/scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms as low-level moisture remains abundant and temps creep a bit above normal, with high temperatures potentially reaching 85-90 in some valley areas. By Friday-Saturday, forcing increases again as a broad trough approaches from the west. There is somewhat of a thermal gradient as well, so expect showers and thunderstorms to be more numerous again. Otherwise, summertime warmth and humidity should continue, with highs mostly in the 80s, except 75-80 for higher terrain, and overnight lows in the mid 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Mon...Weak high pressure in place is providing tranquil conditions early in the TAF period. With dewpoint depressions shrinking and cirrus gradually approaching from the west, there is still a window for fog formation until the high clouds thicken and diurnal heating commences. Maintained TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR BR with this TAF issuance. There is also an area of MVFR/IFR stratus that is expanding NNW from the Long Island shore through the Connecticut Valley. Low probability that these stratus work into KPSF/KPOU prior to 12Z, but this was not included in the TAFs at this time. High clouds will gradually thicken and lower through the day as moisture increases throughout the atmosphere ahead of an approaching trough. Some light showers will be possible by the afternoon/evening, but currently expect VFR conditions to continue through the daylight hours. From 00-06Z Mon, showers will become more focused along a developing warm front approaching from the southwest. Will trend cigs/vsbys down to MVFR during this timeframe. IFR cigs/vsby accompanying the steadiest rainfall will become possible at KALB by the end of the TAF period. There is a chance for an isolated embedded thunderstorm after 00Z, but probability is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain light and variable overnight, becoming southerly at around 5 kt for most of the upcoming day. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mainly dry weather will continue into early Sunday. Unsettled weather returns later Sunday and continues into next week with rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions also return early next week. RH values will increase to 85 to 100 percent tonight with areas of dew and fog. RH values will lower to 50 to 70 percent tomorrow and increase to 90 to 100 percent tomorrow night. Wind will generally remain light at 10 mph or less through Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Mainly dry weather will continue into early Sunday. Unsettled weather returns later Sunday and continues into next week with rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions also return early next week. Rivers and streams have generally crested or are starting to recede. A Flood Warning has been issued for the Housatonic at Falls Village as it is hovering just under minor flood stage. Flows should continue to recede into early Sunday. Unsettled weather returns late Sunday through at least early next week. Rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale NEAR TERM...IAA/Speciale SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...KL/Thompson AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...IAA/Rathbun
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 3:55 PM EDT, 11 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 355 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-111100- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer- Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren- Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 355 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a chance for thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day beginning on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. The return of warm and humid conditions may result in heat index values reaching the mid and upper 90s Thursday and Friday from the mid-Hudson Valley northward up to the Capital District. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
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Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.