Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Albany, NY

July 11, 20214 states

NWS Albany, NY issued this flash flood watch at Jul 11, 2021, 3:52 AM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Jul 11, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2021, 3:52 AM EDT (07:52 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 11, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
Jul 13, 2021, 12:56 AM EDT
In force
29 hr
Issued by
NWS Albany, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 1 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1587 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

204 
WGUS61 KALY 110752
FFAALY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NYZ038>041-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-112115-
/O.NEW.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern
Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western
Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, 
Frankfort, Middle Falls, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, 
Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Glens Falls, Caroga Lake, 
Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Herkimer, 
Delanson, Johnstown, Mohawk, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, 
Woodford State Park, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Burnt 
Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North 
Easton, Guilford Center, Stamford, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson 
Falls, and Schenectady
352 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of New York and southern Vermont, 
  including the following areas, in New York, Eastern Schenectady, 
  Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren, 
  Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern 
  Washington and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, 
  Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham.

* From this evening through Monday afternoon.

* Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain 
  coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range 
  from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy 
  rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor 
  drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may 
  quickly rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAA
8 follow-up statements
460 
WGUS61 KALY 111927
FFAALY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-121000-
/O.EXA.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Albany, Eagle Bridge, 
Middleburgh, Jefferson, Gilboa, Altamont, Berne, Great Barrington, 
Pittsfield, Berlin, Preston Hollow, Hoosick Falls, Knox, Breakabeen, 
Stephentown, North Blenheim, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, 
Cobleskill, South Egremont, Troy, Westerlo, Dalton, and Sandisfield
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH 
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Albany has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of western Massachusetts and 
  east central New York, including the following areas, in western 
  Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In east 
  central New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Schoharie, 
  Western Albany and Western Rensselaer.

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon.

* Rain will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain coming 
  down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1 
  1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy 
  rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor 
  drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may 
  quickly rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ038>041-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-121000-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern
Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western
Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Dolgeville, Brattleboro, Greenwich, 
Frankfort, Middle Falls, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, 
Waterford, Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Glens Falls, Caroga Lake, 
Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Herkimer, 
Delanson, Johnstown, Mohawk, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, 
Woodford State Park, Bellows Falls, Bennington, Stratton, Burnt 
Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North 
Easton, Guilford Center, Stamford, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson 
Falls, and Schenectady
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following 
  areas, in New York, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern 
  Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, 
  Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington and 
  Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern 
  Windham and Western Windham.

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon.

* Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain 
  coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range 
  from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy 
  rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor 
  drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may 
  quickly rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Rathbun
040 
WGUS61 KALY 111934
FFAALY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

CTZ001-013-NYZ058>061-063>066-121015-
/O.EXB.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Kingston, Pine Plains, Stanfordville, 
Arlington, Jefferson Heights, Athens, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, Hunter, West Shokan, Dover Plains, 
Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, Hudson, Oakville, New 
Lebanon, West Hurley, Windham, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, 
Coxsackie, Ellenville, Tannersville, Cairo, Catskill, Thomaston, 
Prattsville, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling
334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
MONDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Albany has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of northwestern Connecticut 
  and east central New York, including the following areas, in 
  northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern 
  Litchfield. In east central New York, Eastern Columbia, Eastern 
  Dutchess, Eastern Greene, Eastern Ulster, Western Columbia, 
  Western Dutchess, Western Greene and Western Ulster.

* From Monday afternoon through late Monday night.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area 
  Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

* The ground is wet from recent rainfall and locally heavy rainfall 
  may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage 
  areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may quickly rise 
  out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-121015-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern
Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast
Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern
Windham-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, 
Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga 
Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, 
Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, Great Barrington, 
Saratoga Lake, Pittsfield, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, 
Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Hoosick 
Falls, Woodford State Park, Stamford, Cobleskill, Little Falls, 
Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, Stephentown, North Blenheim, West 
Glens Falls, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, Bellows Falls, 
Bennington, Stratton, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Middle Falls, 
Cambridge, South Egremont, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, 
Guilford Center, Troy, Caroga Lake, Westerlo, Dalton, Amsterdam, 
Gloversville, Hudson Falls, Schenectady, and Sandisfield
334 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of western Massachusetts, New York and southern Vermont, 
  including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern 
  Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, 
  Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern 
  Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern 
  Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, 
  Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In 
  southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham.

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon.

* Showers will overspread the watch area tonight with the rain 
  coming down heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range 
  from 1 1/2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* The ground is wet from recent rainfall and the expected heavy 
  rainfall may cause localized flash flooding especially in poor 
  drainage areas and low lying areas. Some smaller streams may 
  quickly rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Rathbun
275 
WGUS61 KALY 120744
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NYZ058>061-120845-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Including the cities of Tannersville, Jefferson Heights, Cairo, 
Catskill, Hunter, Athens, New Lebanon, Coxsackie, Prattsville, 
Windham, and Hudson
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of east central New York, 
including the following areas, Eastern Columbia, Eastern Greene, 
Western Columbia and Western Greene has been cancelled.

Heavy rainfall is no longer expected

$$

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-121800-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern
Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast
Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern
Windham-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, 
Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, West Brattleboro, Ilion, Saratoga 
Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, 
Duanesburg, Pownal, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, Great Barrington, 
Saratoga Lake, Pittsfield, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, 
Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Hoosick 
Falls, Woodford State Park, Stamford, Cobleskill, Little Falls, 
Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, Stephentown, North Blenheim, West 
Glens Falls, Hancock, Florida, North Adams, Bellows Falls, 
Bennington, Stratton, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Middle Falls, 
Cambridge, South Egremont, Fort Edward, Londonderry, North Easton, 
Guilford Center, Troy, Caroga Lake, Westerlo, Dalton, Amsterdam, 
Gloversville, Hudson Falls, Schenectady, and Sandisfield
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of western Massachusetts, New York and southern Vermont, 
  including the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern 
  Berkshire and Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, 
  Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Montgomery, Northern 
  Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern 
  Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, 
  Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In 
  southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham.

* Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches along and north of I-90 is 
  expected through early this afternoon.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-122100-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West 
Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, 
Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, 
Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, 
  including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, 
  Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New 
  York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and 
  Western Ulster.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening 
  could produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DBT
574 
WGUS61 KALY 120953
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NYZ038>041-047>054-082>084-121100-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Greenwich, 
Frankfort, Albany, Ilion, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Altamont, 
Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, Duanesburg, Rotterdam, Berne, Glens 
Falls, North Blenheim, Saratoga Lake, Clifton Park, Eagle Bridge, 
Mariaville, Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, 
Delanson, Hoosick Falls, Cobleskill, Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, 
Stephentown, Caroga Lake, West Glens Falls, Little Falls, Middle 
Falls, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, 
North Easton, Troy, Westerlo, Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, 
and Schenectady
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central New York and 
eastern New York, including the following areas, in east central New 
York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, 
Northern Saratoga, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Saratoga, 
Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and Western 
Schenectady. In eastern New York, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, 
Southern Fulton and Southern Herkimer has been cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Rainfall is no longer expected 
to pose a flash flooding risk.

$$

MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-121800-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Great Barrington, Brattleboro, Woodford 
State Park, South Egremont, Pittsfield, West Brattleboro, Hancock, 
Londonderry, Florida, North Adams, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, 
Stamford, Bennington, Stratton, Dalton, Pownal, and Sandisfield
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of western Massachusetts and southern Vermont, including 
  the following areas, in western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire 
  and Southern Berkshire. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern 
  Windham and Western Windham.

* Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Additional rainfall of up to an inch is possible through early 
  this afternoon.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-122100-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West 
Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, 
Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, 
Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, 
  including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, 
  Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New 
  York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and 
  Western Ulster.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening 
  could produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DBT
759 
WGUS61 KALY 121436
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-121545-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210712T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Great Barrington, Brattleboro, Woodford 
State Park, South Egremont, Pittsfield, West Brattleboro, Hancock, 
Londonderry, Florida, North Adams, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, 
Stamford, Bennington, Stratton, Dalton, Pownal, and Sandisfield
1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of western Massachusetts and 
southern Vermont, including the following areas, in western 
Massachusetts, Berkshire county. In southern Vermont, Bennington and 
Windham counties have been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-130000-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Pine Plains, Stanfordville, Arlington, West 
Hurley, Woodstock, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Millbrook, Amenia, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Beacon, Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, New Milford, 
Oakville, Wingdale, Torrington, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Kingston, 
Thomaston, Terryville, Sundown, and Pawling
1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut and east central New York, 
  including the following areas, in northwestern Connecticut, 
  Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield. In east central New 
  York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and 
  Western Ulster.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening 
  could produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLV
621 
WGUS61 KALY 121737
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

CTZ001-013-121845-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
Including the cities of Oakville, New Milford, Thomaston, 
Terryville, Torrington, and Gaylordsville
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Litchfield county, Connecticut has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

NYZ063>066-130200-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, 
Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New 
Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east central New York, including the following areas, 
  Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western 
  Ulster.

* Through late tonight.

* Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening 
  could produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLV
779 
WGUS61 KALY 121955
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NYZ063>066-130200-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, 
Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New 
Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east central New York, including the following areas, 
  Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Western Dutchess and Western 
  Ulster.

* Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening 
  could produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding especially 
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Some smaller streams may quickly 
  rise out of their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLV
972 
WGUS61 KALY 130456
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
1256 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

NYZ063>066-130600-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Napanoch, Beacon, Pine Plains, Millbrook, 
Amenia, Stanfordville, Arlington, Kingston, West Hurley, West 
Shokan, Dover Plains, Kerhonkson, Poughkeepsie, Woodstock, New 
Paltz, Pawling, Wingdale, Ellenville, and Sundown
1256 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of east central New York, 
including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, 
Western Dutchess and Western Ulster has been cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat.

$$

DBT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 11, 1:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 1:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a comfortable night with some patchy fog possible.
Increasing clouds tomorrow will give way to showers Sunday afternoon
that become areas of rain overnight. Unsettled weather continues
most of the week. Warm and humid conditions also return early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...
As of 1 am...Forecast is on track so only some minor
adjustments were needed to temperatures, dew points and sky
cover. Have high pressure across the region at the surface with
weak ridging being induced aloft across the region downstream of
the developing upper level low over the Midwest. GOES-16 Night
Fog product shows stratus expanding across southern New England
and Long Island. IR shows cirrus approaching from the west. With
mainly clear skies, light winds and temperatures very close to
the dewpoints conditions will be favorable for the development
of fog and/or stratus until the cirrus really begins to stream
overhead later at night. Still expecting low in the 50s with
lower 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern
Connecticut.

Previous discussion [10:30PM]...High pressure building eastward
out of southern Canada has kept skies mainly clear so far
tonight and GOES16 water vapor/IR shows cirrus clouds still
displaced well to our south in PA and the Ohio Valley. Current
thinking is for skies to remain mainly clear through 06 UTC
which is supported on the latest HREF. After this time, warm air
advection associated with the cut-off low in the Midwest should
push northward towards our region and allow cirrus clouds to
gradually spread northeastward. Since these clouds are not
expected to arrive until after 2AM, radiational cooling under
clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to cool
towards their respective dew point and support patchy fog,
especially in valley areas. Latest GOES16 nighttime microphysics
shows patchy fog is already developing in parts of the southern
Adirondacks. Once cirrus overspreads the region after 09 UTC
and especially towards 12 UTC, fog should start to diminish.
Otherwise, it will be a cool and comfortable night as
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s with low dew points
staying in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern turns more active throughout the day Sunday and
continues through Monday night. Sunday will start out dry with
partial sunshine, but clouds will increase throughout the day as a
warm front approaches from the south. An upper-level and surface low
will move into the Missouri Valley and nearly stall as an upper-
level ridge builds overhead. Over time, a surface high pressure
system will dive southeastward into northern New England and
Atlantic Canada. This will cause the warm front to stall near or
directly over our region through Monday night. The location of the
front will be the focus for rounds of rain and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon through Monday night.

Latest guidance suggests rain showers will increase in coverage from
south to north Sunday afternoon as low-level moisture and
precipitable water values increase (dewpoints rising into the 60s
and precipitable water values rising above 1.50 inches). During
Sunday night, a shower/thunderstorm complex is expect to lift
northeastward over our region, then pivot east to east-southeastward
over time (up and over the crest of the upper ridge). This can
result in some training of shower and thunderstorm activity and
locally heavy rainfall. There remains uncertainty where and when
this pivot point is, but a general blend of model guidance favors
areas along and north of I-90 at this time. Within this sector, 1 to
2 inches of rain will be possible during Sunday night into early
Monday morning with locally higher amounts. This could lead to some
incidents of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received
copious amounts of rain over the past week.

In the wake of this complex, additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night as the boundary
remains nearby. Some guidance suggests the high is strong enough the
boundary drops southward a bit on Monday, especially along the
Hudson River and points east, reducing instability. It does not
appear to be a complete washout and some drier periods are expected,
but confidence is low on the timing. Overall, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible as precipitable water values remain high, around 2
inches, and dewpoints remain in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s.

As a result of the higher confidence in clouds and showers, high
temperatures for both Sunday and Monday were lowered, now ranging
from the upper 60s to upper 70s Sunday and the mid-60s to lower 80s
on Monday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s with some upper
50s possible in higher terrain areas, especially Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will be mainly characterized by a humid and
seasonably warm airmass, along with shower/thunderstorm development,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday, mid/upper level ridging will be in place extending from an
anomalously strong anticyclone centered offshore the Carolinas. 500
mb heights in the mid-590s (dam) are +2 to +3 stdev, and 850 mb
temps in the upper teens (C) are +1 to +2 SD. However, there
continue to be signals that an easterly component to the low level
flow will result in a somewhat maritime-influenced airmass which may
keep temps not as hot as would otherwise be expected given the
airmass at mid and upper levels. The ridge axis is modeled to shift
east during the day, which could open the door for some convective
development in the afternoon and evening, given a very moist
airmass. However, NBM PoPs appear too high given the weak/subtle
forcing for ascent, so have capped them in the low likely range,
although with PWAT's in the +1 to +2 SD range, locally heavy
downpours look possible. As for temperatures, expect highs mainly in
the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s, but with dewpoints likely above 70
in many areas. Should any prolonged breaks of sun occur, much hotter
temps would be possible. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s to around
70.

Wednesday, the midlevel ridge is replaced by low-amplitude
troughing. With better forcing for ascent into a still very moist
airmass, expect showers and thunderstorms to be more numerous. Temps
are expected to be a bit warmer as well (near seasonal normals), as
low-level flow veers southwesterly, with lower/mid 80s in most
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Nighttime lows again
mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday may end up being the day with the least coverage of showers
this week due to weak/nonexistent forcing. However, can't rule out
isolated/scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms as low-level
moisture remains abundant and temps creep a bit above normal, with
high temperatures potentially reaching 85-90 in some valley areas.

By Friday-Saturday, forcing increases again as a broad trough
approaches from the west. There is somewhat of a thermal gradient as
well, so expect showers and thunderstorms to be more numerous again.
Otherwise, summertime warmth and humidity should continue, with
highs mostly in the 80s, except 75-80 for higher terrain, and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Mon...Weak high pressure in place is providing tranquil
conditions early in the TAF period. With dewpoint depressions
shrinking and cirrus gradually approaching from the west, there is
still a window for fog formation until the high clouds thicken and
diurnal heating commences. Maintained TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR BR with
this TAF issuance. There is also an area of MVFR/IFR stratus that is
expanding NNW from the Long Island shore through the Connecticut
Valley. Low probability that these stratus work into KPSF/KPOU prior
to 12Z, but this was not included in the TAFs at this time.

High clouds will gradually thicken and lower through the day as
moisture increases throughout the atmosphere ahead of an approaching
trough. Some light showers will be possible by the
afternoon/evening, but currently expect VFR conditions to continue
through the daylight hours. From 00-06Z Mon, showers will become
more focused along a developing warm front approaching from the
southwest. Will trend cigs/vsbys down to MVFR during this timeframe.
IFR cigs/vsby accompanying the steadiest rainfall will become
possible at KALB by the end of the TAF period. There is a chance for
an isolated embedded thunderstorm after 00Z, but probability is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Winds will remain light and variable overnight, becoming southerly
at around 5 kt for most of the upcoming day.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry weather will continue into early Sunday. Unsettled
weather returns later Sunday and continues into next week with
rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions also
return early next week.

RH values will increase to 85 to 100 percent tonight with areas
of dew and fog. RH values will lower to 50 to 70 percent
tomorrow and increase to 90 to 100 percent tomorrow night.

Wind will generally remain light at 10 mph or less through
Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry weather will continue into early Sunday. Unsettled
weather returns later Sunday and continues into next week with
rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions also
return early next week.

Rivers and streams have generally crested or are starting to
recede. A Flood Warning has been issued for the Housatonic at
Falls Village as it is hovering just under minor flood stage.
Flows should continue to recede into early Sunday.

Unsettled weather returns late Sunday through at least early
next week. Rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected with
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale
NEAR TERM...IAA/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...KL/Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...IAA/Rathbun
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 3:55 PM EDT, 11 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-111100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
355 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours, each day beginning on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

The return of warm and humid conditions may result in heat index
values reaching the mid and upper 90s Thursday and Friday from the
mid-Hudson Valley northward up to the Capital District.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in New York, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Vermont, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Massachusetts, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.